Carolina Panthers (5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS) vs. San Francisco 49ers (6-2 SU, 6-2 ATS)
NFL Week 10
Date and Time: November 10, 4:05 PM E
Where: Candlestick Park
by Jeff Hochman, Pro Handicapper, JHSportsline.com
Point Spread: Car +7/SF -7
Over/Under Total: 42.5
A clash of red hot teams meet in this NFC Week 10 matchup. The Carolina Panthers and San Francisco 49ers have combined to win 10 games in a row. Last Sunday, the Panthers crushed Atlanta 34-10 as 10-point home chalk. Carolina outgained the Falcons by 84 yards and sit at 5-3 ITS (in the stats) this season. Carolina will be looking to win its fifth consecutive game. Two weeks ago, the 49ers laid the smackdown to the Jaguars in winning 42-10 as 16-point road favorites. San Francisco outgained Jacksonville by 80 yards, a low figure considering the final score of the game. The 49ers are just 3-5 ITS this season after going 13-3 ITS last year.
Carolina is a 7-point underdog with the better defense in this contest. The Panthers are allowing just 299 yards per game and only 13.3 points per game. The only dual threat quarterback they have faced this season was in Week 1. They lost to Seattle, 12-7 as 3-point home dogs and were outgained by 117 yards. It will be very interesting to see how the Panthers defend the duel threat QB in Colin Kaepernick. The 49ers are allowing 325 yards per game and 18.1 points per game which is up from last season. The biggest difference between these two stop units is the run defense. Carolina has been stingy all season, allowing just 79 rushing yards per game while 49ers are allowing 105 rushing yards per game. Both teams rank in the bottom third in terms of passing offense. Carolina averages 202 passing yards per game while 49ers can muster up just 189.9 passing yards per game. That's why the Over/Under seems low. Two teams who look to run the ball early and often which sets up some play-action later in the game.
Carolina (No. 3) and San Francisco (No. 6) are ranked in the Top 6 in red-zone efficiency. This usually results in higher-scoring games if the total is less than 43 points. I just don't know what the weather situation will be like when the game starts this early in the week. If you want to play the Over make sure there is no windy weather of heavy rain. Check out this simple but very profitable O/U angle. Since 2005, when two teams are ranked in the Top 6 in red zone scoring after week 7 and the total is less than 43 points, the Over has gone a perfect 7-0. That's 100% folks!
The Panthers have done a great job at taking the ball away with a +9 turnover margin while the 49ers are +4. I think Special Teams plays a bigger role in more NFL games than people think. It's all about hidden yardage and average starting field position. Neither team will have a major advantage in this contest as the Panthers are ranked No. 14 and SF checks in at No. 15. The biggest difference between these two teams that nobody talks about is the offensive line. When you watch the 49ers offensive line something seems "off" a bit and that's evident by their No. 28 ranking. Carolina has been solid on the O'line backed by a No. 8 ranking. Another great reason to back the underdog in this game. The odds-makers intentionally juice up the favorites in late games because they know the squares like to bet favorites and overs. This line should be closer to 5 or 5.5 points in my opinion.
The last time Carolina and San Francisco played was back in 2010. Carolina won 23-20 as 1-point home dogs. The Panthers outgained SF 379-282, and have won and covered three straight against the 49ers. Carolina is 7-3 SU and 9-1 ATS versus the 49ers since 1998. The Over is 8-2 with an average O/U line of 44 points.
Jeff's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Carolina Panthers +7 & Over 42.5 (weather permitting)
Two very similar teams in terms of philosophy. The Panthers are better up front and have the better key stats as 7-point underdogs. Look for a closer game than most people think even though the 49ers have had two weeks to prepare. Feels like an Over too if the weather holds up.
Editor's Picks - Each week our in house pro's tackle the week's card and make predictions on the week's games ATS! Best bets, top plays, premium selections, etc. FREE!
Expert NFL Picks - Free premium plays from the "real" expert football handicappers from around the web. Don't fall for second rate picks from ESPN, the NFL Network, Hank Goldberg or the screaming touts on TV.
Underdog of the Week Pick - We forecast the loudest barking dog of the week. Expect a 60% winning percentage with these plays.
Favorite of the Week Play - We examine "the chalk" and determine the safest bet in which who you should lay the points with. Forecasting winning favorites long term isn't easy, but we've had some pretty good luck with it over the years.
Line Movement Plays - We report all the major line moves from the gridiron and forecast whether it's public money or sharp action causing the move. Who will cover the spread this week? Our line move plays!
NFL Consensus Picks - See what the general public is betting on. We use this info to fade the public to the tune of big profits over the course of the season.
Bookies Picks - Each week, we'll post which side the bookies are on. Please note: These are not OUR picks. We're simply reporting the teams the bookies need to cover the spread in order for them to win. Games receiving equal action on both sides will not be factored into these records.
Office Pool Picks - You asked for it and you got it! Each week, we'll post our predictions to win each game straight up so that you can RULE your pick'em league!
NFL Trends - Don't ever let anybody tell you that the trend is your friend. These picks make great fades which is exactly what we do with them.
NFL Computer Picks - We enter the statistics into the database and the computer crunches the numbers and gives final score predictions. These should be used for entertainment only!
Monday Night Football Picks - The ultimate bailout play. Our MNF picks are golden and have hit 62% or better 3 out of the past 4 years. (Last season was a disaster!) Did we mention that their FREE?
2015 NFL Predictions - Bob makes projections on each team's record (plus Super Bowl winner prediction) and whether or not they'll go over or under their posted season win totals at the sportsbooks.
Super Bowl Picks - Everybody here in the Predictem office takes their best preseason shot at predicting the winner Superbowl 49. Pride is on the line here! Oh, and LOOT too!
5Dimes - Bet your NFL football picks at -105 odds every day of the week! 15 team parlays! 20 point teasers! Pleasers and huge point buying opportunities as well!
Bovada - Tired of deposit hassles? Bet on football using your credit card at a sportsbook where your Visa CAN and WILL work for deposits! Offers a 50% sign-up bonus up to $250 FREE!
MyBookie - Credit cards work GREAT here! Get a massive 50% bonus up to $1000 in free cash!
Bookmaker - Watch the game for a bit THEN make a wager! Yes! You can jump in after the action has started using their awesome live betting feature! Get a massive 50% bonus up to $300 in FREE bonus cash OR take advantage of their enormous 15% bonus up to $2500 in free cash! The best sportsbook for highrollers!
Super Bowl Betting - We explain all the different types of wagers you can making including point spread bets, totals, moneylines and prop bets. No need to go to Vegas! You can bet the big game online!
Weekly Fantasy Football - If you drafted a crappy team or the injury bug has bit you and wrecked your season, we've got something really cool to turn you on to that will change the way you play fantasy sports forever!
Famous Football Quotes - From the inspirational to the greatest touchdown calls of all time. We've got them!
Pro Football Hall of Fame - A full list of NFL players who have been inducted into the NFL HOF.
The Spread - Offers free NFL football predictions, matchups, stats including both offensive and defensive and more!
Fantasy Football Sites - Get recommendations on where to find weekly updated player news, depth charts and legit websites that offer the best stat and record tracking for your fantasy football league.