Carolina Panthers (1-3, 0-4 ATS) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-5, 1-4 ATS), Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Sunday, Oct. 18th, 1 PM Eastern, Fox
By Z-Man of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Panthers -3/Bucs +3
Over/Under: 40
Bet this game at the web's biggest online sportsbook who accepts Visa cards and also will give you a 10% sign up bonus after you depsosit: Sportsbook.com
Two members of the NFC South Division who have combined for exactly one win so far this season hook up down on the Gulf Coast when the Carolina Panthers visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Sunday afternoon.
Most online sportsbooks opened this game with Carolina favored by three or 3 ½ points, and as of Thursday morning that number sits at -3 almost everywhere. Meanwhile, the opening total on this game ranged anywhere from 37 to 40. As of Thursday AM, most NFL betting outlets were listing the over/under at 40.
The Panthers are also listed at right around -180 on the various NFL betting moneylines, with the Bucs getting +155 as home underdogs.
Carolina opened this season by getting its butt kicked at home by Philadelphia, then went on the road and lost at Atlanta and at Dallas. But after their bye week the Panthers got off the schnide and came from behind for a 20-17 victory over hapless Washington last week in Charlotte.
And yet, even in getting that first win of the season, Carolina couldn't cover the spread last week as five-point home faves. And they still haven't provided their financial backers with a single winning wager this year.
BET THE BUCCANEERS AT THE SPORTSBOOK WITH THE BEST UNDERDOG BETTING ODDS, BAR NONE: SPORTSINTERACTION
Tampa Bay, meanwhile, with a new head coach and various starting quarterbacks, has dropped its first five games of this season, to Dallas, Buffalo, the Giants, Washington and, last week, at Philadelphia, by an average score of 28-14. And they've only been able to cover one pointspread so far, that as 9 1/2-point dogs vs. the Redskins.
So at 1-3 and 0-5, respectively, the Panthers and Buccaneers are three and 4 ½ games, respectively, behind the first-place New Orleans Saints in the NFC South.
Stretching back to last year, the Bucs have lost nine straight regular-season games.
A season after leading his team to a division title, Carolina QB Jake Delhomme is struggling. So far this year Delhomme has completed 60% of his throws for a 6.7 YPA average, which is low, with three TD passes, a league-high eight INTs and a pedestrian 60.3 QB rating.
Tampa began the season with veteran Byron Leftwich as the starter at quarterback, but made a change last week and went with Josh Johnson. In his second career NFL start, the second-year man out of the University of San Diego went 26 for 50 passing, for 240 yards, two TDs and three INTs in a losing effort vs. the Eagles.
So far this season the Panthers are getting outgained, on average, by a 321-282 YPG margin, and outrushed 156-97. The Bucs, meanwhile, are getting outgained 380-284, and outgrounded 153-95.
Carolina also ranks 28th in the league this season in average time-of-possession at 27:46, while Tampa ranks 20th at 29:11.
These division rivals split their two meetings last season, the Bucs winning 27-3 in Tampa and the Panthers winning 38-23 in Charlotte. Carolina outgained TB in those two games together by just 47 yards, but outrushed the Buccaneers by a 170-114 YPG margin.
With the NFC South playing the NFC East this season, these two teams have already played three common opponents, the Cowboys, Redskins and Eagles. Dallas, Washington and Philly outscored Carolina by a 25-12 average margin, and outgained the Panthers by an average of 75 YPG. Meanwhile, the Bucs got outscored by an average margin of 28-16 in games vs. those three teams, but only got outgained by an average of 27 YPG.
The totals are 2-2 this season in Panthers games, which have averaged 40 points per, while the O/Us are 3-2 in Tampa games, which are averaging just under 42 points.
The Sagarin PREDICTOR ratings at USAToday.com ranks Carolina at 13.7, Tampa Bay at 9.1. Taking into account Sagarin's updated NFL home-field advantage figure of 2.4, and the Panthers are two-point road chalk on the Sagarin line.
NFL home underdogs are 8-18 straight up so far this season, and 12-14 vs. the pointspreads.
Z-Man's Pick: Carolina is REALLY bad this season. Look for Tampa Bay to get their first win here.
Editor's Picks - Each week our in house pro's tackle the week's card and make predictions on the week's games ATS! Best bets, top plays, premium selections, etc. FREE!
Expert NFL Picks - Free premium plays from the "real" expert football handicappers from around the web. Don't fall for second rate picks from ESPN, the NFL Network, Hank Goldberg or the screaming touts on TV.
Underdog of the Week Pick - We forecast the loudest barking dog of the week. Expect a 60% winning percentage with these plays.
Favorite of the Week Play - We examine "the chalk" and determine the safest bet in which who you should lay the points with. Forecasting winning favorites long term isn't easy, but we've had some pretty good luck with it over the years.
The Armchair Quarterback Predictions - ACQ makes an appearance at Predictem to give out his much coveted troika of free weekly NFL picks. Put your helmet on and tackle your bookie with these sick picks. He is simply FLAT NASTY!
Line Movement Plays - We report all the major line moves from the gridiron and forecast whether it's public money or sharp action causing the move.
NFL Consensus Picks - See what the general public is betting on. We use this info to fade the public to the tune of big profits over the course of the season.
NFL Trends - Don't ever let anybody tell you that the trend is your friend. These picks make great fades which is exactly what we do with them.
Monday Night Football Picks - The ultimate bailout play. Our MNF picks are golden and have hit 62% or better 3 out of the past 4 years. (Last season was a disaster!) Did we mention that their FREE?
Superbowl Predictions - Our take before the season on who we think will win Superbowl XLVI. We'll update with a final pick based on the actual remaining teams a week prior to the big game at Lucas Oil Stadium on February 5th, 2012.
Super Bowl Picks - Everybody here in the Predictem office takes their best preseason shot at predicting the winner Superbowl 46. Pride is on the line here! Oh, and LOOT too! Picks will be updated a 2nd and final time two weeks before the Super Bowl plays.
Free UFL Picks - Point spread predictions for the United Football League each week of their season (starting in October).
5Dimes - Bet your NFL football picks at -105 odds every day of the week! 15 team parlays! 20 point teasers! Pleasers and huge point buying opportunities as well!
Intertops - Tired of deposit hassles? Bet on football using your credit card at a sportsbook where your Visa CAN and WILL work for deposits!
SBG Global - Best parlays odds online! Get paid 12-1 on 4 team parlays! Best at accepting credit cards for deposits too!
Football Bets - We explain all the different types of wagers that you can place on an NFL game and give advice on which ones good and which are sucker bets. We also explore the value of betting at reduce odds.
Superbowl Betting - We explain all the different types of wagers you can making including point spread bets, totals, moneylines and prop bets.
Statless NFL Handicapping - The quick, easy way and yes, it's effective!
Betting NFL Underdogs - It's the first thing you should consider every Sunday. We explain why.
Choosing an Online Sportsbook - We talk about things to consider before you commit to play at one.
Famous Football Quotes - From the inspirational to the greatest touchdown calls of all time. We've got them!
Pro Football Hall of Fame - A full list of NFL players who have been inducted into the NFL HOF.
The Spread - Offers free NFL football predictions, matchups, stats including both offensive and defensive and more!
Fantasy Football Sites - Get recommendations on where to find weekly updated player news, depth charts and legit websites that offer the best stat and record tracking for your fantasy football league.