San Diego Chargers (4-2 SU, 2-4 ATS) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (3-3 SU, 4-2 ATS), 8:30 p.m. EST, Week 8 NFL, MNF, October 31, 2011, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Mo., TV: ESPN
by Badger, NFL Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: SD -3.5/KC +3.5
Over/Under: 44
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After rattling off three straight wins the Kansas City Chiefs are back from the dead and right back into the thick of the AFC West title chase, which will make for some interesting drama this week when the Chiefs host the San Diego Chargers in a big inter-divisional clash at Arrowhead Stadium in primetime on Monday Night Football on Halloween night.
The Chiefs won their third straight by taking advantage of an undermanned Oakland Raiders offense on Sunday, 28-0. The Kansas City defense intercepted the Raiders QB-combo of Kyle Boller and Carson Palmer six times and returned two of them for touchdowns in the lopsided victory, but with only 300 yards of offense and two turnovers of their own the defense’s heroics covered up multiple warts that they still need to fix if they hope to continue their climb up the AFC West standings.
Meanwhile, the Chargers enter the Monday Night showdown off a dismal second-half performance in their, 27-21, loss to the New York Jets last Sunday. The Chargers held an 11-point halftime lead only to watch the Jets score 17 unanswered points in the second half to steal a victory away from the Bolts. Quarterback Philip Rivers threw two crucial interceptions late in the game crushing the Chargers hopes for a late comeback on the road, dropping them into a race for the AFC West title instead of keeping them multiple games away from the rest of the chase pack.
The Chiefs sudden surge and the Chargers prototypical giving ways now sets up for an exciting showdown in front of a national television audience on ESPN, a showdown that just a few short weeks ago looked like it would be another Monday Night yawner.
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The oddsmakers in Las Vegas and across the Internet are expecting a bounce back game from the Chargers, installing San Diego as 3.5-point favorites on the road at the typically hostile Arrowhead Stadium when this game opened late on Sunday night. A few of the offshore sportsbooks on the Web have dropped the hook to list the Chargers at minus -3 points, but for the most part the early steam at the window has yet to cause too much line movement for this game.
The over/under total opened at 44 at most sports books and has yet to show any line movement either, although there are a scant few that have moved it up the hook to 44.5 to eliminate the chance to earn a push.
Offensively these two teams don’t appear to have the same type of firepower, even though they are only separated by one game in the standings.
San Diego is 8th in the NFL in total yards with an average of 391.5 per game, with a large chunk of those yards coming via the arm and passing skills of Rivers (273.2 ypg – 7th). But Rivers has also thrown nine interceptions to just seven touchdowns, is hitting on just 64 percent of his passes and has a really low 82.3 QB rating which makes all of those numbers a little deceiving.
All of Rivers issues with interceptions and efficiency are why they only average 23.5 points per game (15th), a really low mark for a team that sits in the top-10 in the league at nearly 400 yards a game.
The Chargers are facing some injury issues on offense this week, with tackle Marcus McNeill (neck) listed as doubtful, and guard Kris Dielman (concussion), running back Michael Tolbert (hamstring) and receiver Malcom Floyd (hip) all listed as questionable after all of them left the Jets game last week with injuries.
But the Chiefs are also having major issues scoring points this season (17.6 ppg – 26th), mostly due to the fact that their quarterback Matt Cassel is having a terrible year with numbers comparable to Rivers (8 TD – 7 INT, 63 comp. %, 80.7 QB rating) without all of the yards. Kansas City is 30th in the league after six games, with just 173.7 yards a game in the air, something Cassel and head coach Todd Haley must fix and quick if they hope to reach the playoffs again this season.
The only bright spot for the Chiefs has been the running game, which is averaging 129.3 yards a contest despite losing top running back Jamal Charles to a season-ending knee injury several weeks ago. Jackie Battle, Dexter McCluster and Thomas Jones have all pitched in to pick up the slack, and considering the Chargers defense allows a high amount of yardage on the ground (121.7 ypg – 21st) you can assume the Chiefs will use a heavy dose of those three this week against the Bolts.
San Diego has enjoyed kicking sand in the face of the Chiefs in their AFC West rivalry of late, winning two straight and seven of the last eight overall to dominate the head-to-head series since 2007. The Chargers won a close, 20-17, game earlier this season at Qualcomm in week three. However, the only victory for the Chiefs during that string of games was last season at home in Arrowhead, dropping a 21-14 victory over the Bolts as 4-point underdogs at home (coincidence?).
The series has not been as lopsided as far as sports gamblers are concerned, as the two teams are each 5-5 ATS going back 10 games through the 2006 season. In fact, the Chiefs own a solid 9-4-1 ATS advantage over the Chargers at home in Arrowhead going back 14 meetings. But that flies in the face of recent Chiefs betting trends, as they are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against an AFC West rival.
But then again the Chargers are just 2-7-1 in their last 10 games as a road favorite, so pick you betting trends wisely in this contest.
The under has some nice trends supporting it, including a perfect 5-0 in Kansas City’s last five games vs. the AFC West. The under is also 4-1 when the KC Chiefs are a home underdog, and 3-1-1 in the last five games head-to-head between these two.
Badger’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I know the Chiefs have won three games in a row now, but it’s been smoke and mirrors in my opinion. Let’s not forget who those wins have come against too, as the Colts, Vikings and quarterback-less Raiders are not exactly the elite teams in the NFL. Because this game is on the road at Arrowhead the Chargers will struggle a little, but I’m looking at a late backdoor cover in this scenario with the Bolts winning by a touchdown. I’m taking San Diego minus the points.
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