Chicago Bears (7-7, 7-7 ATS) vs. Green Bay Packers (13-1, 9-5 ATS) NFL Week 16, Sunday, Dec. 25, 8:20pm ET, Lambeau Field, NBC
by Evergreen, Pro Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Chi +13/GB -13
Over/Under Total: 45
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Happy Holidays and here’s to a great finish to the NFL season. It is not often that we get a stand alone game on Sunday, but that is exactly what is on tap for Christmas as the Chicago Bears make the trip to Lambeau to take on the Green Bay Packers. Another chapter will be written in this storied NFL rivalry but what may have been a battle for the NFC North crown now features one team in playoff prep mode while the other fights to remain alive for the postseason for another week.
The Bears come in riding a four game losing streak and have not been able to get any real offense going after the losses of Jay Cutler and Matt Forte to injury. Chicago sits 8th in the NFC, trailing Detroit and Seattle for the last wildcard spot and need to win out to even have a chance of sneaking in.
The Packers return home for their final two games and even though Kansas City ended their pursuit of a 16-0 regular season, Green Bay is still in the drivers seat to wrap up home field through the NFC Playoffs with a win. Had the 49ers lost on Monday Night Football, the Pack may already be looking to rest starters and that may still be the case should Seattle beat San Fran on Christmas Eve.
Early betting information is spotty, most likely due to the implications of a 49er win or loss, but the Packers are listed as 13 point favorites with the over/under total at 45.
Most of what is to be said about Chicago can be found on their injury report. Cutler and Forte are out and the Bears will also be missing WR Johnny Knox which will further limit their offensive capability. Green Bay’s defense has not been solid of late but most teams aren’t going to be able to take advantage of that without their starting quarterback, running back and leading wide receiver. Lance Briggs, Brian Urlacher and Julius Peppers may now be the best defensive and offensive options for Sunday as the Bears will need to get heat on Aaron Rodgers and create turnovers to put up some points.
The Packers aren’t off the hook when it comes to injuries either and I’m sure a 49er loss will give Mike McCarthy the opportunity to get some players off the field. The starters will not doubt be out there but with all the offensive line issues for the Packers, its hard to believe Rodgers will play the whole game if he is getting a ton of pressure like he did at Kansas City. OL Derek Sherrod is on IR with a broken leg and linemates Chad Clifton and Bryan Bulaga are both questionable with leg injuries so the Packers are at the bottom of the barrel. Running backs James Starks and Brandon Saine are also questionable so the running game may not be able to be relied upon either.
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I think you can look at this game, and bet it, from two different angles. If San Francisco wins and keeps the pressure on Green Bay to win, then it’s likely the Packers will come out and handle business as usual. That leaves an underperforming Chicago offense with McCown or Caleb Hanie at the helm against a Packer defense that is under the microscope and probably motivated to prove they are good enough to win another Superbowl. Rodgers comes out and spreads the ball around like usual and makes enough plays with his feet to win the game and probably cover the spread.
If SF loses, it’s anyone’s guess. Chicago has all the motivation to knock off a rival and keep their season alive. You also have to note that Chicago will know its playoff fate come gametime based on the result of Detroit and San Diego. If the Bears get to Rodgers early, often and with impact, it’s hard to see the Packers leaving their Superbowl hopes on the line in what would be a meaningless game. Chicago definitely has the edge on defense and special teams, so a cover and an outright win are not out of the question if Green Bay mails one in.
For what it is worth, the road team is 4-1 against the spread in the last five meetings between the teams with Green Bay at 6-2 ATS overall in the last eight and the under has hit in eight straight.
Evergreen’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: With so much riding on the results of the other games, I’m copping out and taking the under here. Chicago will be basic on offense out of necessity and Green Bay will be running more and passing out of max protect so the score should stay lower. Green Bay 23 Chicago 10.
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