Chicago Bears (4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (3-4 SU, 3-4
ATS), 8:30 p.m. EST, Week 9 NFL, MNF, November 7, 2011, Lincoln Financial
Field, Philadelphia, Pa., TV: ESPN
by Badger, NFL Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Chi +7.5/Phil -7.5
Over/Under Total: 47.5
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One week after putting on a very impressive display in front of the nation on Sunday Night Football, now the Philadelphia Eagles will try and do it again in front of the country on Monday Night Football when they welcome the Chicago Bears to Lincoln Financial Field in Philly this week.
The Eagles absolutely destroyed the Dallas Cowboys in primetime last Sunday, 34-7. Quarterback Michael Vick threw for 279 yards and two touchdowns, running back LeSean McCoy ran for 185 yards and two scores and the Philly defense limited the Cowboys to just 45 plays and 17 minutes of time of possession to get the big win and move head coach Andy Reid’s record following a bye week to a perfect 13-0.
They’ll face a Bears team that was on a mini two-game win streak of their own prior to taking last week off with their bye. Chicago earned the extra week off after outlasting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers across the big pond in London in their last game back on October 23rd, 24-18. The Bears defense forced four interceptions in the game and the offense ran the ball more times than they passed it (33 runs, 32 passes), a rarity in a Mike Martz offense, to key the big win over the Bucs in England.
But the Bears also watched Philly hitting on all cylinders last Sunday like everyone else, so they know the task of trying of containing Vick and McCoy in primetime on Monday Night Football will be a huge challenge, one they will need to pull off in order to stay with the pack of teams chasing an NFC playoff birth.
With the Eagles domination fresh on the minds of just about everyone associated with the NFL, it’s no real surprise that the oddsmakers out in Las Vegas opened the point spread for the Monday Night game with Philly as 7-point favorites at home in the Linc. The short memory “syndrome” also appears to be afflicting the early action at the betting window too, with so much money pouring in on the Eagles that the line had gone up to minus -8 or minus -8.5 at a bunch of offshore sportsbooks on the Web.
The over/under total opened at 47.5 for the primetime affair, and after a few days of wagering on it the total appears to be trending upward. A large majority of sportsbooks are still listing the number at 47.5, but a few of them have moved it up the hook to 48.
With Sunday’s huge output against the Cowboys added into the season totals the Eagles are now the NFL's top-ranked offense in total yards (449.4 ypg) and rushing yards per game (180 ypg), although they were the top-ranked unit in running the ball before McCoy gouged the Boys for nearly 200 yards by himself.
More importantly, the Eagles finally showed the world what they are capable of on offense and what most experts expected to see all season long from Vick and company. The key for the Eagles offense is avoiding turnovers (dah!), as they have committed 14 in their four losses and only 3 in their three victories.
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The problem for the Bears on offense has been the erratic play of their offensive line, although they have played much better in recent weeks. Rookie right tackle Gabe Carimi hasn’t played since week two (knee) and is listed as questionable for Monday’s game, but Lance Louis has done an admirable job in his absence and it certainly won’t hurt to have all hands on deck come Monday if Carimi is able to go.
The Bears offense has also done a better job of limiting the pressure on quarterback Jay Cutler in recent weeks due to a renewed emphasis on giving Matt Forte more touches in the running game. Cutler gets wild (59.05 comp. %) and is prone to throwing interceptions (six) when his number is called all the time, so getting Forte going and slowing down the Eagles pass rush will be a huge key to the Bears success on Monday Night.
The Bears defense does give up a lot of yardage (380.6 ypg – 23rd), but that typically because they sit back in that cover-2 shell and make offenses dink-n-dunk they way down the field. If Vick is patient and takes what they give him, there’s no reason to believe the Eagles can’t put up more than the 21.4 points per game the Bears are allowing this season.
Likewise, the Bears will have to test the Eagle run defense (allowing 118.3 ypg – 18th) this week because last week the Cowboys never had a chance to run the football on them after getting behind too big too quickly. Slowing down ends Trent Cole and Jason Babin off the edge will be crucial to the Bears success this week, and it won’t happen if they don’t run the ball effectively from the opening snap.
Chicago beat the Eagles last season at home in Soldier Field, 31-26, partly because of their ability to run the football (131 yards, 4.6 per carry). Cutler also had a huge game, with four touchdown throws and zero turnovers.
The victory by the Bears last season was their third in their last four games against the Eagles, including a 19-16 victory over them the last time they played in Philly in 2007. Prior to that though the Eagle had won five straight over the Bears, owning the series from 1999 to the 2004 season.
But only two of those 10 games have been played in Philly over the years, where the Eagles are 1-1 SU but 2-0 ATS in the series.
The Bears have also enjoyed a 6-4 ATS advantage over the years, including a 3-1 ATS mark over the last four and a 4-2 ATS mark over the last six. The underdog is a solid 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings, so most of the betting trends seem to point in the Bears favor.
The under is also a solid betting trend play, going 20-8 in the Bears last 28 road games and 5-1 in the Eagles last six home games. The under is also 24-9 in the Eagles last 33 games after scoring 30 points or more, as they have had a hard time replicating success in back-to-back weeks in recent years.
Badger’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: With the way the Eagles played last week against the Cowboys there’s nowhere to go but down. Plus, I’m not a Bears fan but I still don’t understand why they never seem to get any love from oddsmakers. The Eagles will win, but I don’t think it will be as easy as the current 8-point spread seems to indicate. I’m betting the Bears plus the points.
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