Chicago Bears (4-4 4-4 ATS) vs. San Francisco 49ers (3-5 6-2 ATS) Candlestick Park San Francisco, CA 8:20 PM EST, NFL Week 10, Thursday Night Football, November 12, 2009 on NBC
by Jason Green at Predictem.com
Point Spread: Bears +3 / 49ers -3
Over/Under: 43.5
Bet this game at a Sportsbook that will give you -105 odds instead of the standard -110! This will save you BIG bucks throughout the season! Find this great offer at BetPhoenix.
This Thursday night in the City by the Bay the San Francisco 49ers host the Chicago Bears. After starting the season 3-1 and leading the weak NFC West the 49ers have lost 4 in a row and now trail the Arizona Cardinals in the division by 2 games. The Bears are coming off a loss, have lost 3 of their last 4 games, and are .500 at 4-4 and since the Vikings are 7-1 in the NFC North it looks as if the Bears will be chasing a Wild Card berth in order to make the post season. Since there are so many legit teams in the NFC the Bears have to start winning now or they will not make the playoffs.
Last week the Bears lost to the Arizona Cardinals 41-21 and the 49ers lost to the Tennessee Titans 34-27.
In their loss to the Bears their defense let them down big time, as they allowed 438 total yards, 182 rushing yards, and allowed Kurt Warner pass for a career high 5 TD's. The Bears' rushing offense has struggled all season and in this loss that trend continued, as they only had 70 yards. The Bears played a sloppy game as well, as they were penalized 9 times for 89 yards and they had a costly turnover. The Bears' offense only came alive in the 4th quarter scoring 14 points, but by then the game was out of reach. The Bears were favored by 2 points so they were nowhere close to covering the spread and the posted total of 45 points was surpassed.
In the 49ers' loss to the Titans they had more total yards, but they were out-scored 24-10 in the 2nd half and turnovers killed them. Alex Smith threw 2 INT's in the 4th quarter and also fumbled the ball in the game and he was sacked 4 times. Overall the 49ers had 4 turnovers in the game and that led to the Titans scoring 24 points. The 49ers were also only 4/13 in 3rd down conversions. The 49ers were favored by 4.5 points so they did not cover the spread and the posted total of 40.5 was surpassed by 20.5 points.
As you can see turnovers killed the 49ers in their loss to the Titans and in their 4-game losing streak they have turned the ball over 11 times. They have to hold onto the ball in this game.
Chicago has the league's 18th ranked offense and while Jay Cutler has been solid their rushing offense has only averaged 90.5 yards per game.
Matt Forte has not looked like the 1,000-yard RB he was last season, as after 8 games he only has 441 yards and he is only averaging 3.6 yards per carry. He has yet to crack the 100-yard barrier this season.
The 49ers' defense ranks 18th in the league and their run D is solid, but their secondary has been torched giving up an average of 241 passing yards per game. This game is not a good match up for the 49ers, as the Bears are relying on the pass to move the chains this season.
The 49ers have 17 sacks this season, which is decent, but they will have to pressure Cutler in this game. Cutler has been sacked 19 times this season and he has an inexperienced WR corps.
The Bears' defense ranks 15th in the league and they are having problems stopping the run. They may have more problems in this game, as 2-time Pro Bowl tackle Tommie Harris was ejected in the last game after punching a member of the Cardinals and he may face a suspension for this game.
The Bears' defense has to keep RB Frank Gore from having a big game on the ground. Gore is having a decent season and while he only has 447 rushing yards he has missed 2 games and he is averaging 5.6 yards per carry. In his last 2 games Gore has 174 yards and 2 TD's.
BET 49ERS GAMES AT AN ONLINE SPORTSBOOK THAT HAS THE HIGHEST CREDIT CARD ACCEPTANCE RATE FOR DEPOSITS IN THE INDUSTRY AND THAT OFFERS A GENEROUS 20% SIGN UP BONUS: BETUSA
49ers QB Alex Smith has been up and down since becoming the starter, but he and TE Vernon Davis have turned into a great tandem. The Bears will have to body-up on the big Davis and not allow him to make big plays.
In a few betting trends for this game the Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games, the total has gone Over in 4 of the Bears last 6 games, and the 49ers have been a solid 6-2 ATS this season even though they did not cover last week.
Jason's Pick: Both teams are struggling, but the 49ers struggles can be fixed if they can simply hold onto the ball. The 49ers will snap their 4-game losing streak, as Frank Gore will have a big game and that will help keep Jay Cutler on the sidelines. Take the 49ers and the spread, as they will get back into the NFC West race with a home win this Thursday night.
Editor's Picks - Each week our in house pro's tackle the week's card and make predictions on the week's games ATS! Best bets, top plays, premium selections, etc. FREE!
Expert NFL Picks - Free premium plays from the "real" expert football handicappers from around the web. Don't fall for second rate picks from ESPN, the NFL Network, Hank Goldberg or the screaming touts on TV.
Underdog of the Week Pick - We forecast the loudest barking dog of the week. Expect a 60% winning percentage with these plays.
Favorite of the Week Play - We examine "the chalk" and determine the safest bet in which who you should lay the points with. Forecasting winning favorites long term isn't easy, but we've had some pretty good luck with it over the years.
The Armchair Quarterback Predictions - ACQ makes an appearance at Predictem to give out his much coveted troika of free weekly NFL picks. Put your helmet on and tackle your bookie with these sick picks. He is simply FLAT NASTY!
Line Movement Plays - We report all the major line moves from the gridiron and forecast whether it's public money or sharp action causing the move.
NFL Consensus Picks - See what the general public is betting on. We use this info to fade the public to the tune of big profits over the course of the season.
NFL Trends - Don't ever let anybody tell you that the trend is your friend. These picks make great fades which is exactly what we do with them.
Monday Night Football Picks - The ultimate bailout play. Our MNF picks are golden and have hit 62% or better 3 out of the past 4 years. (Last season was a disaster!) Did we mention that their FREE?
Superbowl Predictions - Our take before the season on who we think will win Superbowl XLVI. We'll update with a final pick based on the actual remaining teams a week prior to the big game at Lucas Oil Stadium on February 5th, 2012.
Super Bowl Picks - Everybody here in the Predictem office takes their best preseason shot at predicting the winner Superbowl 46. Pride is on the line here! Oh, and LOOT too! Picks will be updated a 2nd and final time two weeks before the Super Bowl plays.
Free UFL Picks - Point spread predictions for the United Football League each week of their season (starting in October).
5Dimes - Bet your NFL football picks at -105 odds every day of the week! 15 team parlays! 20 point teasers! Pleasers and huge point buying opportunities as well!
Intertops - Tired of deposit hassles? Bet on football using your credit card at a sportsbook where your Visa CAN and WILL work for deposits!
SBG Global - Best parlays odds online! Get paid 12-1 on 4 team parlays! Best at accepting credit cards for deposits too!
Football Bets - We explain all the different types of wagers that you can place on an NFL game and give advice on which ones good and which are sucker bets. We also explore the value of betting at reduce odds.
Superbowl Betting - We explain all the different types of wagers you can making including point spread bets, totals, moneylines and prop bets.
Statless NFL Handicapping - The quick, easy way and yes, it's effective!
Betting NFL Underdogs - It's the first thing you should consider every Sunday. We explain why.
Choosing an Online Sportsbook - We talk about things to consider before you commit to play at one.
Famous Football Quotes - From the inspirational to the greatest touchdown calls of all time. We've got them!
Pro Football Hall of Fame - A full list of NFL players who have been inducted into the NFL HOF.
The Spread - Offers free NFL football predictions, matchups, stats including both offensive and defensive and more!
Fantasy Football Sites - Get recommendations on where to find weekly updated player news, depth charts and legit websites that offer the best stat and record tracking for your fantasy football league.