Kansas City Chiefs (3-12) 6-9 ATS, 9-6 O/U at Denver Broncos (8-7) 9-6 ATS, 5-10 O/U, NFL Week 17, Sunday January 3, 2010 Invesco Field at Mile High Stadium, Denver, Colorado 4:15 p.m. EST, weather: high 39, low 21 sunny
By Wilson of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Kansas City +12.5/Denver -12.5
Over/Under: 38
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The Kansas City Chiefs will be hoping to finish their season on the road by stealing a win over the Denver Broncos but that task may be a bit out of touch. Kansas City has problems on both sides of the ball between injuries and a lack of executing. The Chiefs have been out scored in the first quarter this season 99-38! KC head coach, Todd Haley has adjusted the offense almost weekly in an attempt to improve their opening scoring drives. Haley fired Chan Gailey after week two of the season and took over as the play caller. He said the team was improving but they are still a long ways away from his expectations. The Chiefs have lost five games in a row after their upset win over the defending superbowl champion Steelers on November 22 at Invesco Field. Kansas City lost most recently to the Cincinnati Bengals last week 17-10.
Denver meanwhile is trying to save the season that started out so well. The Broncos began this season with a 6-0 record and appeared to be on track until week seven when the wheels fell off the bus. Now Denver is hoping to wrap things up with a 9-7 regular season record. The playoff picture for the Broncos is now a desperate plea as they must win this week against the Chiefs, but that’s not all. The Broncos also need either the Jets to lose against the already in Bengals or the Ravens to lose at Oakland. I don’t know that either of these events will happen. New York will be playing with a ton of fire as will the Raiders who stung the Broncos last week and can do it again this week!
The line on this game opened at Denver -11 with a total of 39. Most online sportsbooks are showing the Broncos -13 with the O/U 38, but there are some that show -13.5 with an O/U 38.5 it just depends on which online casino you prefer. The Las Vegas Hilton and The Mirage Sportsbooks are showing Denver -12.5 with a total of 38.
The under is 7-1 in KC’s last 8 games in week 17. The Chiefs are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games in January. Denver is 6-16-1 ATS in their last 23 games versus AFC West opponents.
Head to head, Kansas City is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 meetings in Denver. The home team is 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 meetings.
Denver QB Kyle Orton will have the advantage over KC’s Matt Cassel. Orton has a QB rating of 89.3 to Cassel’s 70.1. Orton also has a 62 percent completion rate to Cassel’s 55 percent. Cassel has 16 TDs and 15 interceptions on the season while Orton has 20 TDs and 9 picks.
The Broncos are hungry and obviously need to win this game to move on given they get help from the Jets or Ravens. Denver is currently riding a three game losing streak. Maybe the home crowd coupled with the playoff formula will help the Broncos play to their potential.
The Broncos should have no problem winning at home as they are simply the better football team in nearly every category. But this is the NFL, and if the Browns can beat the Steelers and the Raiders can beat the Steelers then certainly the Chiefs have a shot!
Wilson’s Pick: Denver will win this game straight up but covering the spread is a questionable proposition. I look for a stellar defensive effort here from the Broncos which leads me to side with the UNDER as the best bet in this matchup. Luck to ya.
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