Kansas City Chiefs (8-3 SU, 5-6 ATS) vs. Atlanta Falcons (7-4 SU, 7-4 ATS)
NFL Week 13
Date/Time: Sunday, December 4th 2016 at 1:00pm EST
Where: Georgia Dome – Atlanta, GA
by Bob, Expert Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: KC +4 / ATL -4
Over/Under Total: 49.5
This Sunday the Kansas City Chiefs will go into the Georgia Dome to take on the Atlanta Falcons in an AFC/NFC showdown. Both teams are looking as if they will make the playoffs while Kansas City is just a game behind Oakland in the AFC West and the Falcons are leading the NFC South by a game over Tampa Bay. This is not a do or die for either team, but it is a game that would be a good win looking back down the stretch.
The Falcons are a four point home favorite over the Chiefs and the total points are set at 49.5 total. Against the spread this year, Kansas City is 5-6 while the Falcons are 7-4 just like their actual win loss record. As of Tuesday night, 64% of the betting action was on Atlanta to cover at home over the Chiefs while 56% like this game to go over the posted total of 49.5.
The Falcons are emerging as the most deadly offense in the NFL. Behind a solid run game, the arm of Matt Ryan, and the pure beast that Julio Jones is, the Dirty Birds are averaging 32.5 points per game which is first in the NFL. Not only has Matt Ryan elevated his game in 2016, the rest of the Falcons have too. Not only is Julio making plays but Ryan is not finding other weapons in the arsenal that keeps this offense clicking even when Julio is locked down. Mohammed Sanu and Taylor Gabriel have made some huge plays as of late and the run game of Devonte Freeman and Tevin Coleman keep them balanced. The only major question mark for Atlanta is their defense.
The Falcons on defense are showing signs of life but they are still giving up a good bit of points. However, all last season and early in 2016 the knock was that the Falcons could not get pressure on the quarterback…well that has changed. Coach Dan Quinn is dialing up some packages and the opposing QBs are finally feeling some pressure. If Atlanta can keep that going this weekend, I think they will be in for a good Sunday. The Chiefs defense on the other hand has been playing very well too. Justin Houston is harassing opposing quarterbacks and that will be a big key to this game. If Matt Ryan is under pressure, and trust me this Falcons O Line has improved but it is still not elite, the it could be a very long day for Atlanta.
As for a statistical look at Kansas City coming in, they rank in the top 10 in scoring defense, and are 16th in the NFL in scoring offense. This team is pretty average on paper, but they are just finding ways to win. Kansas City to get the road upset needs to slow down the high flying Atlanta offense, dictate the tempo of the game by slowing it down and running the ball with success, and pressure Matt Ryan. If these happen, I could not only see KC keeping this game close, I could see them winning it.
I took Atlanta last week minus the points over the Cardinals and we won with ease. As much as I like Atlanta in this game, something tells me they are in for a battle down to the end. I consider this game a toss up and anytime I have that feeling and one of the teams are getting points, I lean that way. I think Atlanta wins a hard fought 27-24 type game but the Chiefs stay within the four.
Bob’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Take the Kansas City Chiefs plus the four points on the road
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