Kansas City Chiefs (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS) vs. Oakland Raiders (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS)
NFL Week 6
Date/Time: Sunday, October 16, 2016 at 4:05 PM EST
Where: Oakland Alameda Coliseum.
by Jeff Hochman, Professional Handicapper, JHSportsline.com
Point Spread:KC +1.5/OAK -1.5
The Raiders will host the Kansas City Chiefs in Week six action as the visitor will try to climb above .500 for the third time this season. Coming off their BYE week, the Kansas City Chiefs look to bounce back after their embarrassing loss at Pittsburgh two weeks ago. The Raiders enjoyed another close win on Sunday by squeaking past the Chargers 34-31 as 3.5-point home chalk. San Diego outgained the Raiders 423-389, while Oakland benefited from four Chargers' turnovers. The Raiders are now 0-5 in the stats this season and have allowed season-high yards in every game so far. The Chiefs lost on Sunday Night Football two weeks ago in horrible fashion. The 43-14 loss was one of Andy Reid's worst debacles in his career. The Steelers outgained KC 436-357, while enjoying a 149-87 rushing yards advantage.
On paper, the Raiders look to be the logical choice. Oakland is ranked No. 4 in yards per game, 8th in passing yards, 9th in rushing yards, and 5th in points per game. On the flip side, Kansas City checks in at No. 21 in yards per game, 15th in passing yards, 21st in rushing yards, and 20th in points per game. However, on defense the Raiders are ranked dead last, allowing a whopping 452.6 yards per game. The road team is allowing 370 yards per contest and their special teams is ranked four spots higher than the host. The Raiders' offensive line is ranked No. 1 in fewest sacks allowed. I would expect the Chiefs to dial up some zone blitz packages to try and force Derek Carr and company into mistakes.
Andy Reid is 15-2 SU when his team plays after a BYE week in his career. So far with the the Chiefs he is 2-1 SU. I would expect a top-notch effort from the road team coming off a non-effort on national TV two weeks ago. The Raiders are allowing 27.4 points per game which is quite unusual for a 4-1 team. Oakland is hoping to have running back Latavius Murray and linebacker Malcolm Smith back from injuries this week. Those two players will certainly help, but it's not the end of the world if they don't play. Those players possibly returning are already factored into the betting line. DeAndre Washington, Jalen Richard, and fullback Jamize Olawale averaged just 3.6 yards per carry last week, so they really need Murray back.
Here are some eye-popping stats, but keep in mind the Raiders have a lot more talent than in years past. Oakland is 14-24 SU and 11-26 ATS as home favorites of 3 points or less since 1993. That's a pretty big sample size. Kansas City is 5-1 SU in their past 6 games in Oakland. These two teams know each other very well having to play twice a year. There are very few surprises in NFL division games unless their has been a coaching change. Let's be honest here, the Raiders are incredibly lucky to be 4-1 so far. Their total margin of victory in its four victories is just 12 points, meaning their average margin per win is only 3 points. Still, you have to give Jack Del Rio and the Raiders a ton of credit. Just win baby!
Jamaal Charles is fully healthy and should be ready to carny the load against a Raiders' defense that is allowing 122 rushing yards per game. The Chiefs haven't been better (129.5), but might not have to face the Raiders No. 1 running back. The Chiefs have two weeks to improve their run defense and passing offense. Based on Andy Reid's record off a BYE (15-2 SU), there is a good chance the Chiefs play a competitive game. You can be sure the effort will be noticeable after their meltdown two weeks ago on Sunday Night Football. The Chiefs won both meetings last season so the host enters this game with revenge. This line opened at Oakland -2 on Sunday night at Westgate. The public is betting on the Raiders, yet the line is heading down. Wise guys like KC and the squares like Oakland. Take your pick. Here is mine.
Jeff's Pick to Cover the Point Spread:Kansas City Chiefs +1.5
I'll take the division underdog with the better defense. The Chiefs should bounce back with two weeks to prepare after their ugly performance against the Steelers. This is a very big game for the visitor. A win puts the Chiefs right back on track to another division title. I was hoping to get at least +3 points, but the odds-makers are pretty sharp too. Small play on Kansas City.
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