Cincinnati Bengals (0-0 SU 0-0 ATS) vs. Cleveland Browns (0-0 SU 0-0 ATS) Week 1 NFL Football, Cleveland Browns Stadium, Cleveland. Ohio 1 PM ET, September 11, 2011 on CBS
by Jason Green, Professional Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Cin +6.5/CLE -6.5
Over/Under Total: 36
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Both of these teams are young and have talent, but each still has major question marks. The Cincinnati Bengals are starting over with a new QB in Andy Dalton, a new head coach, and a new possible star WR in A.J. Green. The Cleveland Browns are giving QB Colt McCoy a shot to show he can be a legit NFL starter, but he does not have many weapons to pass to and that is a big issue in Cleveland in this game and for the season for that matter.
These AFC North rivals split the 2 games they played last season with each winning on their home field.
McCoy does not have to do it all since they feature Peyton Hillis in the backfield, who rushed for 1,177 yards and 11 TD. Cincy ranked 19th last season stopping the run and if they cannot stop Hillis from having a big game they are toast. Still, last season showed that when Hillis is banged up he is less effective and he heads into the season with minor back and hamstring injuries. Luckily, he is facing a suspect Bengals' run defense and he will have a good game.
McCoy has looked OK in the preseason, but they lost the last 3 games failing to do much on offense. One wild card is 3rd round pick WR Greg Little, who has the size and has looked good in the preseason. Cincy lost top CB Johnathan Joseph and their secondary will not get torched in this game, but McCoy and company will move the ball in the air.
The Bengals have emerging stars in DE Carlos Dunlap and LB Rey Maualuga, but their whole D lacks speed and that will hurt them in this game.
Dalton takes over for Carson Palmer, but he has not looked good in the preseason with more picks than TD (2-1) and overall the Bengals' offense only averaged 11.75 points per game in losing 3 of their 4 preseason games. Yeah, Cincy has Green and Jordan Shipley, but they will struggle against an improved Browns' secondary.
The Bengals did what they really needed to do in the off-season, which was to re-sign RB Cedric Benson. New Cincinnati offensive coordinator Jay Gruden stated he wants to have a power running game to protect his rookie QB and Benson will get a lot of touches in this game. He will have solid rushing game since the Browns only ranked 27th in the league last season defending the run and plan to start a couple of rookies on the defensive line.
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The new kickoff rule hurts the Browns since Pro Bowler Josh Cribbs is one of the best return guys in the league. If he is given the chance to return kicks he will give the Browns good field position, which is huge in this game with Hillis getting a lot of touches and McCoy sticking to a safe-high percentage passing game that will not take many shots down the field.
In some betting trends dating back to last season Cincinnati is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games, and they have and Under record of 4-0 in their last 4 games.
Cleveland is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games and they have an Over record of 4-1 in their last 5 home games.
Jason's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: In an interesting betting trend the underdog has covered the spread in 7 of the last 8 games between these 2 teams. I expect this trend to continue as this game should be a dogfight. Expect both QB's to make vital mistakes that won't allow either team to pull away. Many are expecting the Bengals to lay down in this game, but that isn't going to happen. 6.5 points is a ton in the NFL and great value for Bengals bettors. Take Cinci to get the money.
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