Cincinnati Bengals (9-7 SU, 8-6-2 ATS) at Houston Texans (10-6 SU, 10-5-1 ATS), Saturday January 7th, 2012. 4:30PM EST, NFL Wildcard Playoffs Week, Reliant Stadium Houston, TX
By Jay Horne, Professional Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Cin +3/Hou -3
Over/Under Total: 38
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The first game of the 2012 NFL Playoffs will feature the 9-7 Cincinnati Bengals squaring off against the AFC South Division Champions by way of the Houston Texans inside Reliant Stadium this Saturday afternoon. For the majority of the regular season, Houston appeared to be one of the best teams in the AFC if not the entire NFL. The Texans jumped out to a 10-3 start led by an explosive offense and one of the best defenses in the league.
However, trouble arose in Houston once starting QB Matt Schaub was lost for the year with a foot injury. That injury really was a turning point in the Texans season as they ended up going 3-3 after losing Schaub and ended the year with 3 straight losses. This Saturday rookie QB T.J Yates will attempt to get the Texans offense back to early season form as they make their first postseason appearance in franchise history.
The visiting Cincinnati Bengals fell to the Baltimore Ravens 24-16 last week but still squeaked into the playoffs with the help of losses by both the Broncos and Jets. Now the Bengals get their 2nd crack at the Texans after losing to Houston 20-19 back in week 14. If you remember, the Bengals led that game 19-10 late before the Texans rallied to score 10 unanswered including a game winning touchdown pass by T.J Yates with just 2 seconds remaining on the clock. This Saturday the Bengals look to get revenge and end the Texans season at the same time.
For the Bengals to be successful, they will have to get things going on the offensive side of the ball. The Cincinnati defense has been competitive all season allowing just 316 yards (7th in NFL) per game. However, the offense has averaged just 319 yards (20th in NFL) per game and also managed just 17 points on average over the last 5 contests. In the prior meeting with Houston in week 14, the Bengals managed just 285 yards of total offense and simply could not move the ball against the Texans defense.
The Bengals ran the ball fairly well against the Texans behind running back Cedric Benson. Benson racked up 1,067 yards through the regular season and put together 91 yards on the ground against the Houston defense in the last meeting. Benson is a big part of the Bengals offense so they need him to be strong in the ground game. Still, Benson can only do so much and the Cincinnati offense will need help from QB Andy Dalton. Dalton's season numbers have been average at best completing 58% for 3,398 yards with 20 scores and 13 picks. The bad news is that Dalton has not been strong during the latter part of the season and has completed 57% or less passing in each of the last 5 games.
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I personally believe that Dalton must play well for Cincinnati to win because Houston's defense will likely put a lot of focus on stopping the run. In the prior meeting, the Bengals scored 10 of their 19 points following Houston turnovers and they cannot expect those same turnovers to be as plentiful this time around. Therefore, it will be important that Dalton is able to make some plays in the passing game to help keep the Texans defense off balance or at least guessing.
On the other side of the field, the Texans offense must avoid those dreaded turnover that nearly cost them a win the last time around. Houston turned the ball over 4 times to Cincinnati in week 14 and turnovers have really been an issue for the Texans down the stretch. For Houston their main priorities should be to protect the football, give the defense a chance, and avoid beating themselves.
QB T.J Yates has struggled a bit since taking over the reins behind center by completing just 61% passing for 949 yards with 3 scores and 3 picks through 6 starts. Yates actually suffered a separated shoulder in last week's loss to Tennessee. The good news is that the injury was on Yates non-throwing shoulder and he will be a full go this Saturday. Still, Yates needs to get the ball in the hands of his playmakers.
The return of WR Andre Johnson should provide a big time target on the outside. Johnson saw a limited number of snaps last week in his first game back against the Titans but expect the leash to be taken off this Saturday. As always, running back Arian Foster will be the ultimate threat for the Houston offense. Foster posted 1,224 yards this year on the ground and added an additional 617 yards in the receiving game out of the backfield. Needless to say Foster is a guy that can make big plays with the ball in his hands. Therefore the Houston offense must make sure to get both Foster and Johnson opportunities with the football in hopes to put up some solid numbers on the scoreboard that has been missing in recent weeks.
Betting Trends
Houston is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games and 5-2-1 ATS this season at home. The Texans' games have also reached the under total in 4 of their last 6 games as well.
Cincinnati is 1-5-2 ATS in their last 8 games and just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on the road. The Bengals' games have also reached the over total in 8 of their last 12 games as well.
Jay's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Houston has dropped 3 straight games since clinching their first playoff berth following week 14's win at Cincinnati. Those games the Texans appeared to be just going through the motions as they tried to overcome all the injuries that were thrown their way. Now the team will get the chance to put together their best overall effort and something tells me Reliant Stadium will be loud as ever for the Texans first ever postseason home stand. I expect you will see a different Texans team that will be revamped and ready to give a great effort against a Bengals team that is just not playing up to their full potential. Take Houston -3.
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