Cincinnati Bengals (6-2 SU, 5-2-1 ATS) vs. Miami Dolphins (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS)
NFL Week 9
Date and Time: Thursday, October 31, 2013 at 8:25 p.m. EST
Where: Sun Life Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
TV: NFL/DTV 212
by Vesper Abadon, Pro Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Cin -1.5/Mia +1.5
Over/Under Total: 42
Bet your Cincy/Fins pick at an online sportsbook where you can bet on games at -105 odds instead of the spendy -110 that your bookie is socking you with! This site also offers 20 point teasers, 25 team parlays and lightning quick payouts: 5Dimes.
Remember back in 2007 when the Miami Dolphins unveiled the Wildcat against the New England Patriots at Foxborough? The Fins thoroughly embarrassed the Patriots in a 38-13 win, which was the last time they won the road against their division foes. This past Sunday, there was another embarrassment at Gillette Stadium, but this time it was the Dolphins embarrassing themselves in a big way.
Up 17-3 in the first half, the Dolphins held the Patriots to just 59 yards through two quarters of play. They seemed primed to win and make a run at the AFC title, and then two things happened. First, quarterback Ryan Tannehill was sacked for the first time in the game. Second, kicker Caleb Sturgis missed a field goal shortly thereafter. That was the turning point. Instead of being up three scores, the Dolphins gave the ball back to the Patriots, who promptly tied things up in just seven plays! The Fins continued to flounder and ended up losing the game 27-17 – becoming the first team since 2002 to start 3-0 only to drop their next four games.
Likewise, there was another drumming on when the Cincinnati Bengals trounced the New York Jets 49-9. Quarterback Andy Dalton threw a career-high five touchdown passes, four of which went to Marvin Jones, who set a team record for touchdown receptions. The five-touchdown performance by Dalton made him the first quarterback to throw for so many against the Jets since Dan Marino did is way back in 1988.
This week on the NFL Network’s Thursday Night Football the Bengals will travel to South Florida to take on the Dolphins. It’s fitting that it’ll take place on Halloween as the Bengals are bound to feast on the Fins.
The reasons for this are aplenty. The 6-2 Bengals have won four in a row and have a nice lead in the AFC North, while the Dolphins have dropped four in a row and essentially fallen out of the Playoff race (it may be too early to say that, but there’s just one Wildcard spot up for grabs considering the Chiefs and Broncos are essential locks for one in the AFC West). Clearly momentum is with the Bengals, but to top it off they’re far and away the better team.
The Bengals are currently the ninth-ranked offense in the league – averaging 369.6 yards per game (YPG) – while the Dolphins are a lowly 28th averaging 311 YPG. The Bengals rank 7th and 19th for passing and rushing respectively, while the Dolphins are 18th and 23rd.
On the ground, the two teams are remarkably similar. Both utilize a committee (BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Giovani Bernard for the Bengals; Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas for the Dolphins), and their stats are on par with one another. Where the Bengals have differentiated themselves is through the air. Dalton has gone 164 of 249 for 1,924 yards, 11 touchdowns, and six interceptions, which makes him the 11th-ranked QB in the league with a 93.9 rating. Meanwhile, Tannehill has gone 133 of 219 for 1,577 yards nine touchdowns, and seven interceptions – he’s also been sacked a NFL-high 26 times.
Defensively, the Bengals are once again superior. They’re ranked 8th in the league holding opponents to an average of 322.5 YPG and 18 points per game. On the other hand, the Dolphins are ranked 20th and allow an average of 355 YPG and 23.9 points.
Vesper’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: It’s hard not to feel bad for the Dolphins. Their 3-0 start gave them a great shot at making a Playoff run, but now the losses just keep coming. What makes it worse is that the Fins really should have won three of the games that they lost (Ravens, Bills and Patriots). Their team mentality needs to change from “let’s just try to hang in there” to “let’s go for the jugular.” Unfortunately they’re not there yet. Instead, they keep finding ways to lose.
Cincinnati is undoubtedly playing better than the Phins right now but there's going to be a spooky result on Halloween night! Playing on the road on 3 days rest and going from 60 degree weather to 85 degree weather is brutal! Take the Phins to win an ugly game.
Editor's Picks - Each week our in house pro's tackle the week's card and make predictions on the week's games ATS! Best bets, top plays, premium selections, etc. FREE!
Expert NFL Picks - Free premium plays from the "real" expert football handicappers from around the web. Don't fall for second rate picks from ESPN, the NFL Network, Hank Goldberg or the screaming touts on TV.
Underdog of the Week Pick - We forecast the loudest barking dog of the week. Expect a 60% winning percentage with these plays.
Favorite of the Week Play - We examine "the chalk" and determine the safest bet in which who you should lay the points with. Forecasting winning favorites long term isn't easy, but we've had some pretty good luck with it over the years.
Line Movement Plays - We report all the major line moves from the gridiron and forecast whether it's public money or sharp action causing the move. Who will cover the spread this week? Our line move plays!
NFL Consensus Picks - See what the general public is betting on. We use this info to fade the public to the tune of big profits over the course of the season.
Bookies Picks - Each week, we'll post which side the bookies are on. Please note: These are not OUR picks. We're simply reporting the teams the bookies need to cover the spread in order for them to win. Games receiving equal action on both sides will not be factored into these records.
Office Pool Picks - You asked for it and you got it! Each week, we'll post our predictions to win each game straight up so that you can RULE your pick'em league!
NFL Trends - Don't ever let anybody tell you that the trend is your friend. These picks make great fades which is exactly what we do with them.
NFL Computer Picks - We enter the statistics into the database and the computer crunches the numbers and gives final score predictions. These should be used for entertainment only!
Monday Night Football Picks - The ultimate bailout play. Our MNF picks are golden and have hit 62% or better 3 out of the past 4 years. (Last season was a disaster!) Did we mention that their FREE?
2015 NFL Predictions - Bob makes projections on each team's record (plus Super Bowl winner prediction) and whether or not they'll go over or under their posted season win totals at the sportsbooks.
Super Bowl Picks - Everybody here in the Predictem office takes their best preseason shot at predicting the winner Superbowl 49. Pride is on the line here! Oh, and LOOT too!
5Dimes - Bet your NFL football picks at -105 odds every day of the week! 15 team parlays! 20 point teasers! Pleasers and huge point buying opportunities as well!
Bovada - Tired of deposit hassles? Bet on football using your credit card at a sportsbook where your Visa CAN and WILL work for deposits! Offers a 50% sign-up bonus up to $250 FREE!
MyBookie - Credit cards work GREAT here! Get a massive 50% bonus up to $1000 in free cash!
Bookmaker - Watch the game for a bit THEN make a wager! Yes! You can jump in after the action has started using their awesome live betting feature! Get a massive 50% bonus up to $300 in FREE bonus cash OR take advantage of their enormous 15% bonus up to $2500 in free cash! The best sportsbook for highrollers!
Super Bowl Betting - We explain all the different types of wagers you can making including point spread bets, totals, moneylines and prop bets. No need to go to Vegas! You can bet the big game online!
Weekly Fantasy Football - If you drafted a crappy team or the injury bug has bit you and wrecked your season, we've got something really cool to turn you on to that will change the way you play fantasy sports forever!
Famous Football Quotes - From the inspirational to the greatest touchdown calls of all time. We've got them!
Pro Football Hall of Fame - A full list of NFL players who have been inducted into the NFL HOF.
The Spread - Offers free NFL football predictions, matchups, stats including both offensive and defensive and more!
Fantasy Football Sites - Get recommendations on where to find weekly updated player news, depth charts and legit websites that offer the best stat and record tracking for your fantasy football league.