Cincinnati Bengals (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) vs. New England Patriots (0-0
SU, 0-0 ATS), 1:00 p.m. EST, Week 1 NFL, Sunday, September 12, 2010,
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Mass., TV: CBS
by Badger of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Bengals +5.5/Patriots -5.5
Over/Under: 44.5
Bet the Bungles/Pats game using your credit card and to get a very generous sign up bonus from one of the web's most fun online sportsbooks: BetUS.
Two teams from the National Football League that seem to have completely opposite management philosophies meet in Gillette Stadium in Foxborough Sunday for week one NFL action when the Cincinnati Bengals travel to play the New England Patriots.
Cincinnati, a surprise playoff team from the AFC North last season, uses the philosophy of “anything to win.” They’ve become the Oakland Raiders of the Midwest in the 2000s, since they’ve employed all sorts of questionable characters and malcontents from other teams in the league over the years.
Last year the Bengals struck gold with one of their reclamation projects, using running back Cedric Benson to get back into a run- first mentality and thus back into the playoffs. This off-season the Bengals brought in the biggest malcontent in the league … receiver Terrell Owens (as well as character guys Matt Jones and Pacman Jones). Owens has been a good soldier through the preseason so far, but I’ll put the over/under on week six before Owens and Chad Ochocinco start dividing the locker room in Cincy.
Meanwhile in New England, no player is bigger than the team since Patriots coach Bill Belichick has run talented players off the squad for not having the proper team-first approach. The Patriots have been quiet all off-season, and while many teams in the AFC have gone for the glam-n-glitz to try and get better (i.e. Cincy), the Patriots have flown under the radar without all of the preseason hype they’ve had in years past.
So 2010 will be another year where we find out which philosophy works better, and we’ll get the first test on Sunday when the two styles meet head-to-head on the field at Gillette.
According to the people setting the betting odds in Las Vegas and offshore, the Patriots are listed anywhere from 4.5- to 5.5-point favorites at home in the opener, depending on where you wager. That number is down from where it opened at 6 points.
A few offshore sportsbooks are still offering an over/under total of 44 too, even though a large majority of books are in agreement at 44.5 as the total and the number could go up more before game time.
When breaking this game down from an offensive perspective, it’s actually the mighty Patriots that have more questions.
For the Patriots there are two givens, quarterback Tom Brady and receiver Randy Moss, but after that you have a bunch of what if’s to answer. Is Wes Welker’s knee really healthy enough for all 16 games? Do the Pats actually have too many good running backs (Sammy Morris, Fred Taylor, Laurence Maroney, Kevin Faulk) but not a great one? Can the offensive line that was once All-Pro laden, that now suddenly finds itself aging quickly, keep Brady’s uniform clean?
If the preseason is an indication, then the Pats offense seems to be status quo as they have put up 30 points per game in three games. Brady also seems to have found a new weapon in rookie tight end Rob Gronkowski (3 TD in preseason), but otherwise there’s not a lot of new blood pumping through the Patriots huddle these days so it’s still as far as Brady goes, so goes New England.
Cincinnati on the other hand returns it’s offensive line essentially intact, has a 20- to 25-carry a game running back in Benson and two new weapons for QB Carson Palmer on the perimeter in Owens and rookie tight end Jermaine Gresham. With all of that continuity inside, along with Owens and Ochocinco outside, the Bengals could pose major matchup problems for defenses all season long starting with the opener against the Pats.
Unlike the Pats the Bengals really only have one question regarding their offense, and it’s a big one, but at some point it may all implode on itself when there’s not enough touches to keep everyone content, which won’t happen in week one but it may come sooner than later.
Defensively this game is sort of a wash because both head coaches (Belichick and Marvin Lewis) are former defensive coordinators who will likely have their units prepared for everything. It then becomes a matter of execution and talent level, and that too seems to be a wash, but the Bengals have played better in the preseason for what it’s worth.
One area where Cincy also has the edge is at linebacker, since the three-pack of Rey Maualuga, Dhani Jones and Keith Rivers is one of the fastest LB crews in the league. Don’t be surprised to see Belichick use a hurry-up or 4-WR spread offense at times during the game to keep a few of those linebackers off the field by forcing nickel or dime situations.
The last time these two teams met (in 2007), Brady was still playing his way toward stardom (231 yards, 3 TD) and the Pats defense forced two Palmer interceptions in a lopsided 34-13 win in Cincinnati. The Pats also held Cincy to a mere 57 yards rushing in that game, something I’m positive the Bengals will improve on in this game Sunday.
Gamblers cashed in on the gravy train that was New England back in that game in 2007, as the Pats easily covered as 7.5-point favorites on the road. The combined total of 47 fell in well under the closing total of 54 on the board, cashing in the under wager for those folks. Although, the under was also a very good bet for both of these teams last year (Cinn. 7-9 O/U, NE 5-10-1), so you could make a case for a betting trend if you’re reaching.
Badger’s Pick to Cover the Spread: I’m leaning toward a Pats win and cover here, but I’m not completely sold on it so I may pass on the side bet. The reason being I’m not sold the Pats can stop the Bengals either, so I’m looking at a 31-21 or 34-24 shootout that falls over the total. Take the over of 44.5.
Did you know that you can make the total 24.5 on this game when using a 20 point football teaser at 5Dimes?
Editor's Picks - Each week our in house pro's tackle the week's card and make predictions on the week's games ATS! Best bets, top plays, premium selections, etc. FREE!
Expert NFL Picks - Free premium plays from the "real" expert football handicappers from around the web. Don't fall for second rate picks from ESPN, the NFL Network, Hank Goldberg or the screaming touts on TV.
Underdog of the Week Pick - We forecast the loudest barking dog of the week. Expect a 60% winning percentage with these plays.
Favorite of the Week Play - We examine "the chalk" and determine the safest bet in which who you should lay the points with. Forecasting winning favorites long term isn't easy, but we've had some pretty good luck with it over the years.
The Armchair Quarterback Predictions - ACQ makes an appearance at Predictem to give out his much coveted troika of free weekly NFL picks. Put your helmet on and tackle your bookie with these sick picks. He is simply FLAT NASTY!
Line Movement Plays - We report all the major line moves from the gridiron and forecast whether it's public money or sharp action causing the move.
NFL Consensus Picks - See what the general public is betting on. We use this info to fade the public to the tune of big profits over the course of the season.
NFL Trends - Don't ever let anybody tell you that the trend is your friend. These picks make great fades which is exactly what we do with them.
Monday Night Football Picks - The ultimate bailout play. Our MNF picks are golden and have hit 62% or better 3 out of the past 4 years. (Last season was a disaster!) Did we mention that their FREE?
Superbowl Predictions - Our take before the season on who we think will win Superbowl XLVI. We'll update with a final pick based on the actual remaining teams a week prior to the big game at Lucas Oil Stadium on February 5th, 2012.
Super Bowl Picks - Everybody here in the Predictem office takes their best preseason shot at predicting the winner Superbowl 46. Pride is on the line here! Oh, and LOOT too! Picks will be updated a 2nd and final time two weeks before the Super Bowl plays.
Free UFL Picks - Point spread predictions for the United Football League each week of their season (starting in October).
5Dimes - Bet your NFL football picks at -105 odds every day of the week! 15 team parlays! 20 point teasers! Pleasers and huge point buying opportunities as well!
Intertops - Tired of deposit hassles? Bet on football using your credit card at a sportsbook where your Visa CAN and WILL work for deposits!
SBG Global - Best parlays odds online! Get paid 12-1 on 4 team parlays! Best at accepting credit cards for deposits too!
Football Bets - We explain all the different types of wagers that you can place on an NFL game and give advice on which ones good and which are sucker bets. We also explore the value of betting at reduce odds.
Superbowl Betting - We explain all the different types of wagers you can making including point spread bets, totals, moneylines and prop bets.
Statless NFL Handicapping - The quick, easy way and yes, it's effective!
Betting NFL Underdogs - It's the first thing you should consider every Sunday. We explain why.
Choosing an Online Sportsbook - We talk about things to consider before you commit to play at one.
Famous Football Quotes - From the inspirational to the greatest touchdown calls of all time. We've got them!
Pro Football Hall of Fame - A full list of NFL players who have been inducted into the NFL HOF.
The Spread - Offers free NFL football predictions, matchups, stats including both offensive and defensive and more!
Fantasy Football Sites - Get recommendations on where to find weekly updated player news, depth charts and legit websites that offer the best stat and record tracking for your fantasy football league.