Cincinnati Bengals (7-4 SU, 6-4-1 ATS) vs. San Diego Chargers (5-6 SU, 6-4-1 ATS)
NFL Week 13
Date and Time: Sunday December 1, 2013 4:25pm EST
Where: Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego CA
TV: CBS Sports
by Tim, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Cin -0/SD +0
Over/Under Total: 48
Bet your Cinci/Bolts pick at an online betting site where you only lay -105 odds on straight bets; not the expensive -110 that your book is socking you with! Find this great offer at the web's best sportsbook: 5Dimes.
The San Diego Chargers are coming off a huge win against the Kansas City Chiefs in Kansas City and will entertain the AFC North Division leaders, the Cincinnati Bengals, losers in two of their last three games but coming off a 41-20 humbling exacted from arch-rival Cleveland. The stage is set and Chargers QB Philip Rivers is oiling up his jaw for a smack talkin’, fast and furious, zip it up, and strap it on meltdown in “The City Also in California!”
San Diego, of course, is a beautiful city in Southern California. The name, ‘San Diego’ has two meanings through translation. The first translation, “Should have kept Drew Brees”, is pretty self-explanatory. The second meaning, “Almost Playoff talent”, refers to San Diego’s gaping holes on their roster keeping them from the upper crust of the NFL pie. San Diego is 6th in total offense but 29th in total defense in 2013. San Diego is 4th overall in passing but mired in 26th position against the pass. The Chargers rush the ball ‘so-so’ reflected by their 17th position in total yards. But the Chargers are number 1 in the NFL in ‘Percentage of Offensive Possessions Ending in Points’! Also in the passing game, San Diego is 2nd in ‘Net Yards Gained per Pass Attempt’…so maybe the smack Rivers throws around IS deservedly delivered? San Diego also does not turn the ball over. The Chargers are 5th in the NFL in protecting the ball which is a Monster stat as teams position themselves for the NFL finish.
The Bengals…well…look good on paper, look horrid in those goofy striped helmets and uniforms, but look bad for the stretch run with so many injuries! The Bengals defense is hobbling badly and their 7th position in total yards allowed is a mirage across a desert steppe on a blistering cloud-free day. The Bengals are retreating in each defensive category as injuries mount so be very careful with the numbers as you may be seeing them in the rearview mirror. On offense (thought to be the catalyst of change in Cincy), the Bengals sit spritely at number 10 in total points, 10th in total yards, 15th in total 1st downs and nothing could be better; right? The Bengals fall desperately to number 18 in the NFL in fumbles lost, 28th in interceptions for Dalton and the gang, and 28th position in total turnovers in the NFL. The Bengals do a switch-a-roo showing up as the 6th best team in passing TD’s, but fall miserably to number 27 in rushing yards per attempt. Cincinnati’s offense is 28th in total turnovers in the league. High-powered, oft injured, and playing on the road are not the ingredients for a successful winning recipe. Let’s look ATS at how these teams have performed.
DEPOSIT $250 AND GET $250 FREE AT GTBETS
The Bengals are a perfect 5-0 Against The Spread at home in 2013. As an away team, the Bengals are 1-4-1 in their last six. As an Underdog, Cincinnati is 2-0-1 Against The Spread but this game is a ‘Straight Up Pick ‘Em”. Against non-divisional opponents, Cincinnati is 4-2-1 ATS and against sub .500 football teams, the Bengals are 2-4 ATS. The OVER is 6-5 for the Bengals in 2013 but only 3-3 if the Bengals are a road team.
The San Diego Chargers are also 6-4-1 Against The Spread in 2013. The Chargers are a pretty comfy 3-1-1 ATS at Qualcomm Stadium (their home). Playing non-divisional opponents, San Diego is 5-2-1 ATS which makes sense because two 9-2 football teams sit in their division (Chiefs and Broncos). Surprisingly, San Diego plays “Up” to their competition sporting a 4-1-1 ATS record when playing teams with a +.500 winning percentage! The Over has happened for the Chargers in 5 out of 11 games this season.
Believe it or not, the choice between these teams looks pretty clear to me! The Chargers at 5-6 actually should be favored in this game! This game will come down to turnovers and Cincinnati turns the ball over MUCH more than San Diego. The Chargers are on a roll after beating the Chiefs last Sunday. The Bengals, meanwhile, have more wheel chairs on their side than an AARP Convention! San Diego wins these games…the Bengals don’t play well on the road; they don’t play well against sub .500 football teams; the Bengal injuries have become catastrophic. The Bengals are a little worse than their record indicates and the Chargers are a little better than their record suggests!
Tim’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: San Diego Chargers +0 (Pick ‘Em)
Preseason Picks - Many don't realize that there's good value in NFL preseason picks! They claim "how can you bet on a game when you don't know who is going to play?" Truth be told, many head coaches tell you how much playing time key players will receive prior to the game!
Editor's Picks - Each week our in house pro's tackle the week's card and make predictions on the week's games ATS! Best bets, top plays, premium selections, etc. FREE!
Expert NFL Picks - Free premium plays from the "real" expert football handicappers from around the web. Don't fall for second rate picks from ESPN, the NFL Network, Hank Goldberg or the screaming touts on TV.
Underdog of the Week Pick - We forecast the loudest barking dog of the week. Expect a 60% winning percentage with these plays.
Favorite of the Week Play - We examine "the chalk" and determine the safest bet in which who you should lay the points with. Forecasting winning favorites long term isn't easy, but we've had some pretty good luck with it over the years.
Line Movement Plays - We report all the major line moves from the gridiron and forecast whether it's public money or sharp action causing the move. Who will cover the spread this week? Our line move plays!
NFL Consensus Picks - See what the general public is betting on. We use this info to fade the public to the tune of big profits over the course of the season.
Bookies Picks - Each week, we'll post which side the bookies are on. Please note: These are not OUR picks. We're simply reporting the teams the bookies need to cover the spread in order for them to win. Games receiving equal action on both sides will not be factored into these records.
Office Pool Picks - You asked for it and you got it! Each week, we'll post our predictions to win each game straight up so that you can RULE your pick'em league!
NFL Trends - Don't ever let anybody tell you that the trend is your friend. These picks make great fades which is exactly what we do with them.
NFL Computer Picks - We enter the statistics into the database and the computer crunches the numbers and gives final score predictions. These should be used for entertainment only!
Monday Night Football Picks - The ultimate bailout play. Our MNF picks are golden and have hit 62% or better 3 out of the past 4 years. (Last season was a disaster!) Did we mention that their FREE?
2015 NFL Predictions - Bob makes projections on each team's record (plus Super Bowl winner prediction) and whether or not they'll go over or under their posted season win totals at the sportsbooks.
Super Bowl Picks - Everybody here in the Predictem office takes their best preseason shot at predicting the winner Superbowl 49. Pride is on the line here! Oh, and LOOT too!
5Dimes - Bet your NFL football picks at -105 odds every day of the week! 15 team parlays! 20 point teasers! Pleasers and huge point buying opportunities as well!
Bovada - Tired of deposit hassles? Bet on football using your credit card at a sportsbook where your Visa CAN and WILL work for deposits! Offers a 50% sign-up bonus up to $250 FREE!
MyBookie - Credit cards work GREAT here! Get a massive 50% bonus up to $1000 in free cash!
Bookmaker - Watch the game for a bit THEN make a wager! Yes! You can jump in after the action has started using their awesome live betting feature! Get a massive 50% bonus up to $300 in FREE bonus cash OR take advantage of their enormous 15% bonus up to $2500 in free cash! The best sportsbook for highrollers!
Super Bowl Betting - We explain all the different types of wagers you can making including point spread bets, totals, moneylines and prop bets. No need to go to Vegas! You can bet the big game online!
Weekly Fantasy Football - If you drafted a crappy team or the injury bug has bit you and wrecked your season, we've got something really cool to turn you on to that will change the way you play fantasy sports forever!
Famous Football Quotes - From the inspirational to the greatest touchdown calls of all time. We've got them!
Pro Football Hall of Fame - A full list of NFL players who have been inducted into the NFL HOF.
The Spread - Offers free NFL football predictions, matchups, stats including both offensive and defensive and more!
Fantasy Football Sites - Get recommendations on where to find weekly updated player news, depth charts and legit websites that offer the best stat and record tracking for your fantasy football league.