Cincinnati Bengals vs. Minnesota Vikings Preview and Pick

Cincinnati Bengals (9-3 SU, 6-6 ATS) vs. Minnesota Vikings (10-2 SU, 7-4-1 ATS), Week 14 NFL, 1:00 p.m. EST, Sunday, December 13, 2009, Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome, Minneapolis, Minn., TV: CBS
by Badger of Predictem.com

Point Spread: Bengals +6.5/Vikings -6.5
Over/Under: 43

Bet this game at an online sportsbook where you can buy up to 10 points on any single NFL side or total: BetUS.

Two playoff bound teams looking to improve their chances at getting a first-round bye will lock horns Sunday in the Metrodome when the Minnesota Vikings and Brett Favre play host to the Cincinnati Bengals and Carson Palmer.

At 9-3 and virtually a lock to win the AFC North, the Bengals will contend with San Diego down the stretch for the AFC’s No. 2 seed in the playoffs (they play the Chargers head-to-head next week).

After playing down to their competition the past three weeks, including a barely-get-me-by effort in a 23-13 win over the Lions last week, Cincinnati will need to flip the switch and go back to the playoff-caliber football they were playing in early November if they want the homefield advantage in January.

The 10-2 Vikings are currently sitting in the No. 2 spot in the NFC, and barring an unlikely late-season collapse by them or the New Orleans Saints, that’s likely where they’ll finish as well. Minnesota will be coming off of it’s worst game of the season though, mind you only their second loss overall, but easily one of their worst in a while. When Adrian Peterson is held to 19 yards on 13 carries, and Favre is pressured into two interceptions like the Vikings were last Sunday night in Arizona, it is bad.

But everyone fully expects the Vikings to rebound in a big way this week, including the oddsmaker in Las Vegas, who opened the game on Sunday with Minnesota as 6.5-point favorites. The early money has come in on the Vikings so far and has moved the line up to Minnesota minus the full touchdown (7-points) at a few offshore sportsbooks.

Early money at the window has caused the over/under total to have some early-week line movement as well, starting out at 44.5 at a few sportsbooks before it has dropped down to its current number of 43 at a majority of the books on the Web and in Las Vegas.

The Vikings offense is expected to rebound at home in the Metrodome Sunday, where they are a perfect 6-0 this season (3-2-1 ATS). When you consider how bad they played last Sunday its hard not to imagine them playing any worse.

Whether or not they improve and revert back to one of the NFL’s top offenses (5th – 383.8 ypg) will depend a lot on the health of the offensive line. The entire unit got pushed around pretty good last week by the Cardinals, and guard Anthony Herrera and both tackles Bryant McKinnie and Phil Loadholt are listed as questionable with various injuries, so they might need all week to get ready.

They’ll also be playing against the Bengals top-ranked scoring defense, leading the league allowing just 15.6 points per game, so it may not be as easy as everyone thinks.

Cincinnati’s defense is by far the most improved unit in the league, and they’re doing it the way everyone in the league tries to do it … by stopping the run first. The Bengals are 2nd in rush defense, allowing 81.8 yards per game, which has helped to propel them up the charts to the league’s 4th-ranked unit in overall defense (293.2 ypg).

Aside from the Bengals near 180-degree turn around on defense, the other surprise improvement this season has been the running game on offense with former reject Cedric Benson.

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Benson, who will likely top the 1,000-yard mark in Sunday’s game, is running like the top draft pick he was expected to be this season, helping the Bengals become the league’s 6th-ranked rushing team at 133.9 yards per game. Two weeks ago it wasn’t Benson, but newly acquired backup Larry Johnson, that ran for 100 yards in the Browns game, so it’s a total team effort and not just reliant upon Benson each week.

It’s taken the pressure off of Palmer to be the sole focus of the offense and the result is the former USC star is having a down year statistically (2,547 yds., 19 TD), but who cares because the Bengals are one fluke tipped pass away from being 10-2 (Denver game).

It should be interesting to watch to see how well Benson does against the “Williams Wall” in Minnesota this week, as Pat and Kevin Williams continue to anchor the Vikings stiff run defense (3rd – 84.2 ypg). The Vikings also lost middle linebacker E.J. Henderson for the season to a broken leg last week, so his loss and his rookie replacement’s (Jasper Brinkley) performance will be something else to keep an eye on during the game.

Recent history between these two teams has been limited.

They last met in 2005 in what turned into a 37-8 Bengals victory at home in Cincinnati. They also played in 1998 (a 24-3 Vikings win in the Metrodome), but all told these two have only played six times in the last two decades with the series sitting at a 3-3 split both SU and ATS.

There are a few strong betting trends that point toward a bet on the under.

The under is 10-1 in Cincinnati’s last 10 games in December. The under is also 4-1 in their last five games as a road dog and 4-1 in their last five games overall. The under is 4-0 in Minnesota’s last four games overall, as well as 4-0 when the Vikings are a favorite and 4-1-1 in their last five December games.

Badger’s Pick: I might be in the minority, but I think the Bengals run defense is strong enough to hold Peterson down again this week. Cincy may not win the game, but their good enough to keep it close on the road. Find a sportsbook that’s giving a full touchdown and take Cincinnati plus 7-points.

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