Cleveland Browns (4-10 SU, 5-7-2 ATS) vs. Baltimore Ravens (10-4 SU, 7-6-1 ATS), 1:00 p.m. EST, NFL Week 16, Saturday, December 24, 2011, M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, Maryland, TV: CBS
by Scotty L, Pro Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Clev+13/Balt -13
Over/Under: 38.5
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The Cleveland Browns meet the Baltimore Ravens on Saturday in an AFC North matchup. This is the second meeting this year of these two teams, with Baltimore winning the first game 24-10 on December 4. At 10-4, Baltimore is tied with Pittsburgh for the divisional lead, while Cleveland sits at a disappointing 4-10, following a decent 3-3 start.
Baltimore is probably irritated after getting shellacked by the Chargers on Sunday night. With Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger ailing, it was a chance for them to get a leg up on their division rivals. The Steelers have two easy games left and even with their QB hobbled, so it would behoove the Ravens to get some good work done here. Winning their last two games could lock up a first-round playoff bye. If worse comes to worse, however, they would win the tie-breaker if they finished with the same mark as the Steelers, having beaten Pittsburgh twice.
Cleveland has lost 7 of their past 8 games. Strangely, however, they have covered the spread in 4 of their past 5 contests. Of their past 5 losses, 3 of them were by 3 points or less. So while the Browns are unquestionably a bad team, they’re not bad enough to completely overlook, either. Now the Ravens are being asked to beat the Browns by 13, but Cleveland has managed to keep all their road losses closer than that, except for one game at Houston.
The Browns showed some signs of life on Sunday, visiting the streaking Cardinals. Seneca Wallace, filling in for Colt McCoy at QB, had a nice game, going 18-31 for 226 yards and a touchdown with no picks. RB Peyton Hillis finally showed signs of life, running for 99 yards and a touchdown. But late in the 3rd quarter, Cleveland led 17-7, only to lose in overtime, 20-17. So while they were unable to win, at least they are still showing some pluck.
On December 4, Cleveland couldn’t get much done with Baltimore at home, so how will they fare this week against an irritated Ravens team on the road? As is their wont, the Browns did well against the pass against Baltimore, holding Flacco to 10-23 and little damage. But their 3rd-ranked passing defense suffers behind a porous run “D” that ranks 31st. It showed in the first game, with Ray Rice rushing for over 200 yards and Ricky Williams chiming in with 76 of his own.
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Making problems worse for the Browns is an offense that has deteriorated as the season wore on. 30th in points scored, Cleveland has not put up over 20 points since week 2. That is a long stretch of offensive impotence and has put a lot of strain on a talented defense that is spending far too much time on the field. At the same time, when you’re getting 13 points against a Ravens team that has gone over 24 points only once in the past 7 games, scoring under 20 points might actually get it done.
Before losing to San Diego by 20 points, Baltimore had won 6 of 7 games. Facing a desperate Chargers team that had finally found their mojo, perhaps an off-week was to be expected. But one shouldn’t expect that this week. With the light at the end of tunnel now visible and a slew of late-surging teams vying for playoff spots, it’s time to turn on the “urgency meter” again. For their last home game of the regular season, expect the Ravens to produce. But 13 points is a lofty line to be sure.
Scotty L’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: The Ravens are unbeaten at home this season. 5 of their 7 home wins were by at least double-digit amounts. Only Arizona and Cincinnati were able to keep it close against Baltimore at home this year. The fact that Flacco will likely struggle again versus a good Browns’ secondary is a reason for pause, but that running game will be hard to stop. Look for a Cleveland defense to wear out a bit in the second half, allowing the Ravens to gain some second-half foothold en route to a win and cover. Take the Baltimore Ravens minus 13 points.
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