Cleveland Browns (2-2 SU, 1-2-1 ATS) vs. Oakland Raiders (3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS), 4:05 p.m. EST, NFL Week 6, Sunday, October 16, 2011, Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum, Oakland, California, TV: CBS
by Scotty L, NFL Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Clev/ +5.5/OAK -5.5
Over/Under: 44.5
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The Cleveland Browns travel to West to take on the Oakland Raiders on Sunday afternoon. The Browns are coming off a bye-week, after compiling a somewhat-promising 2-2 mark. Not bad, considering the recent woes of this franchise. Oakland, meanwhile, is 3-2, following a come-from-behind win against the Houston Texans on Sunday. These are two AFC squads who are both eager to break the mold.
Cleveland QB Colt McCoy looks to be making modest strides as the Browns field general, winning 2 of 4 games despite a lack of a meaningful running attack and a defense that lacks strength in defending the run. Running backs Peyton Hillis and Montario Hardesty are both averaging under 4 yards per rush. But with 200 yards in all 4 games, including 350 in his last game, McCoy is helping Cleveland develop a nice attack in the air.
Mohamed Massaquoi (14-191-1), Ben Watson (16-173-2), and Joshua Cribbs (12-153-1) help anchor a pass catching crew that is diverse and effective. Two other receivers are also in double-digits in receptions, as McCoy has been adept at spraying the ball around to his players.
Defensively, Cleveland has been strong against the pass, which could play a role in this game. But in playing Cincinnati, Indy, Miami, Tennessee, and now Oakland, the Browns have yet to play a high-octane aerial attack. Maybe some of the more powerful passing teams will have their way with the Browns “D,” but so far, so good. But in giving up big games on the ground to Chris Johnson (101 yards), Daniel Thomas (95 yards), and Cedric Benson (121 yards), it makes one worried about what will happen against a home Oakland team with a Darren McFadden who is irritated coming off a mediocre game.
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The fact that Oakland beat Houston on the road without a big game from McFadden speaks well of a team that is becoming increasingly multi-dimensional. QB Jason Campbell might not be putting up glistening stats, but you can sense him becoming more comfortable and effective in his role. He has a nice cast of playmakers and it had to be promising for the offense to see inconsistent WR Darrius Heyward-Bey catching 7 balls on Sunday.
Against Houston, the Oakland “D” gave up 416 yards in the air to QB Matt Schaub. The more pertinent statistic is that they held Houston to two second-half field goals after being behind at halftime. Their “D” is sometimes more clutch than the stats indicate, but they have still given up some big numbers in the air—including 369 to Mark Sanchez and 304 to Kyle Orton. In addition, they have given up big chunks on the ground, leading to this “D” being at the bottom of most important defensive categories.
Nevertheless, Oakland has covered the spread in 4 of 5 games. You can also sense this team galvanizing around head coach Hue Jackson. The passing of longtime owner Al Davis seemed to motivate this team on Sunday. It was an important win with a human emotion component tied in. It could put some more wind in the sails of a surging franchise that has a lot of positive momentum and mojo going at the moment.
Cleveland will be fresh, which could resonate on Sunday. Oakland has been through the ringer—no breaks, tough games, and the death of their owner. Even though the Browns are on the road, they could be the more energetic team come this weekend. That’s assuming Oakland will have some kind of hangover, which is hardly guaranteed. It still is not a stretch to assume a fired-up Browns team will show up on Sunday ready to play.
Scotty L’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: One must be leery of betting against teams like the Browns. Everyone is locked into this perception of them being a relatively weak team, but they might be overlooked a bit. Time will tell, but they are probably good enough to give Oakland a run for their money—even on the road.
Oakland’s defense will need to step it up. It becomes difficult to cover spreads when giving up such big numbers on the ground and in the air. But look for an Oakland “D” to bend and not break, while relying on some big second-half plays and a nice game from Darren McFadden to cover the number late. Take the Oakland Raiders minus 5.5 points.
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