Cleveland Browns (1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2 SU,
1-4 ATS), 1:00 p.m. EST, Sunday, October 18, 2009, Heinz Field,
Pittsburgh, Pa., TV: CBS
by Badger of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Browns +14/Steelers -14
Over/Under: 38
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The Pittsburgh Steelers will attempt to continue their dominance over their AFC North rival Cleveland Browns when they meet for the first time this season on Sunday at Heinz Field.
Diehard fans of the Steelers may be nervous since Pittsburgh notched their second straight uninspiring victory last Sunday, coasting past the Detroit Lions, 28-20. But a win is a win and the Steelers are still 3-2 on the season and have persevered to stay a game behind AFC North leader Cincinnati despite injuries to key contributors Troy Polamalu and Willie Parker.
Meanwhile, it’s hard to know exactly where the Browns are on the season. They won their first and only game of the season on Sunday, so they should be riding high. But the victory was an ugly, 6-3, win over the Buffalo Bills in a game the Bills gift-wrapped and gave away willingly to the Browns, so it’s really hard to get all gushy over the first victory in the Eric Mangini era.
It’s certainly not the type of morale-building victory that will inspire the Browns to snap their 11-game losing streak to the rival Steelers either. The Browns haven’t beaten the Steelers since October 5th of 2003 (a 33-13 win at Heinz), and snapping the streak would make the entire Browns season … a season that has already become one to forget in Cleveland.
Oddsmaker is expecting another big Steelers win, as they opened the game with Pittsburgh as large 13.5-point favorites before moving the point spread up to a full two touchdown 14-points at most offshore sportsbooks after early betting at the window.
The over/under total has not experienced any line movement yet, opening at 38 and continuing to stay at the low total through mid-week.
With the injury to Parker in the early season the Steelers have turned from a power running team on offense to an elite passing one thanks to quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. Big Ben has the Steelers throwing 275.4 yards per game, the 4th-best mark in the NFL thus far, but the increase in yardage (375.8 ypg – 7th) hasn’t necessarily translated into more points on the scoreboard (22.6 ppg – 14th) and victories in the win column.
It's no coincidence that the Steelers two-game win streak coincides with the emergence of running back Rashard Mendenhall out of the backfield. Mendenhall ran for 77 yards and a score last week against the Lions, one week after bursting onto the scene with his 165-yard, two-touchdown Monday Night game against the Chargers.
Parker could be back this week too (listed as questionable), so expect a heavy dose of the two backs against the Browns and their NFL- worst run defense that allows 170.4 yards per game on the ground.
The Browns offense has been just as bad, and it doesn’t matter if Derek Anderson or Brady Quinn is playing quarterback. Anderson struggled going 2-for-17 for 22 yards last week in Buffalo, albeit against a strong wind with numerous drops, but now there is a full- fledged QB controversy amongst the Browns with Cleveland newspapers fueling the fire reporting that Quinn has put his house up for sale.
The Browns showed life on offense the week before in an overtime loss to the Bengals, but they were handcuffed from the get-go with a questionable run-pass mix of 41-to-17 in the loss to the Bills. The problem is the Browns were given the game, er, won the game, so they are probably foolishly thinking the play calling on offense worked just fine.
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Regardless, the Browns are 31st in the league with a 248.4 yards per game average through the first five games with their 31st-ranked passing game (142.2 ypg) and 30th-ranked scoring offense (11 ppg).
That kind of offense going up against a Steelers defense that is still stiff against the run (71 ypg – 2nd) likely won’t work, forcing Anderson and the Browns to open up the playbook a little if the long streak is going snap on Sunday.
The Steelers have won five straight at Heinz since the last loss in the series, covering at a 4-1 ATS clip as well. In the last 10 games the Steelers are 7-2-1 ATS, including a cover in last December’s 31-0 victory as 11-point favorites.
The Browns have covered their last two games, both games started by Anderson, as 6-point underdogs. But they failed to cover 13.5-points in a 34-3 loss to Baltimore earlier this season, so they have played as large underdogs once already this season.
The over is also showing a strong betting trend, going 5-2-1 in the last eight games in the series. The over is also 5-1-1 in the last seven game played at Heinz Field in the series, so that low total of 38 has to have some bettors salivating.
Badger’s Pick: The Browns have no business being in this game, but that’s probably why they will threaten the Steelers with another 4th- quarter comeback. The Browns offense has no business against the Steelers D, but again, stranger things have happened so why not. That’s why I’m taking the over of 38.
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