Welcome to one of our favorite pages, NFL consensus picks. This is where the heart of our handicapping is located. The oddsmakers put out lines and odds each week with hopes of duping the perception of the general betting public. Late in the week we investigate which games are being one sided, then we determine which games are sharp action vs. square plays by tracking line movement.
Over the course of the NFL season, this makes for some huge profits and in our estimation, this is the best way to bet on NFL games as it has provided us a nice tidy profit each of the past few years since we've instituted this technique of handicapping.
We highly recommend you check this page out every week. Plays are usually posted by late Friday afternoon each week. We also recommend that you don't go at this on your own, because sometimes the betting public is right so that means you can't take just "any" game that is getting one sided. There are many variables we put into action before settling on a pick.If you came to this page looking for consensus plays from numerous professional handicappers, we're sorry, we don't offer that as those plays are stolen and the it's a spit in the face to the cappers who work hard to cap plays all week only to have their picks smeared all around the web by consensus services without them getting any compensation for them.
Week 10: (11/12/09 through 11/16/09) See picks below..
Week 10 Picks: Philadelphia +1 (43.3%)(pending), Pittsburgh -7 (39.6%)(pending), Carolina +1 (27.2%)(pending), Redskins +3.5 (21.7%)(pending), Buffalo/Tennessee OVER 41 (43.5%)(pending), Cin/Pitt UNDER 41.5 (39.5%)(pending).
Previous Week's Results
Week 9: (11/8/09 through 11/9/09) Detroit vs. Seattle, Tennessee vs. SF, Baltimore vs. Cincinnati, Green Bay vs. Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh vs. Denver.
Week 9 Picks: Detroit (35.6%)(loss), Tennessee +4 (38.9%)(win), Cincinnati +3 (41.1%)(win), Tampa Bay +9.5 (23.8%)(win), Denver (36%)(loss).
Week 8: (11/1/09 through 11/2/09) Jacksonville/Tennessee TOTAL, Houston vs. Buffalo, Minnesota vs. Green Bay, Oakland vs. San Diego, St. Louis vs. Detroit, SF vs. Indy.
Week 8 Picks: Jacksonville/Tennessee OVER 44.5 (32.9%)(loss), Buffalo Bills +3.5 (31.3%)(loss), Green Bay Packers -3 (35.9%)(loss), Oakland Raiders +16.5% (41.2%)(win), St. Louis +4 (39.4%)(win), SF +13 (36.5%)(win).
Week 7: (10/25/09 through 10/26/09) SF vs. Houston, NYJ vs. Oakland, Minnesota vs. Pittsburgh, SD vs. KC and GB vs. Cleveland.
Week 7 Picks: SF +3 (44%)(push), Oakland +6 (42.8%)(loss), Pittsburgh -6 (37.4%)(win), KC +5.5 (31%)(loss), Cleveland +9.5 (26.5%)(loss).
Week 6: (10/18/09 through 10/19/09) We only like one this week. Carolina plays at Tampa and the Bucs are a +3 home dog. The public is hammering the Panthers while the Bucs are only getting 32% of the action and we fully expect them to get their 1st straight up win of the season.
Week 6 Picks: Buccaneers +3 (loss).
Week 5: (10/11/09 through 10/12/09) Washington vs. Carolina, Dallas vs. KC, Jacksonville vs. Seattle, New England vs. Denver.
Week 5 Picks: Washington +4 (27.3%)(win), KC +7.5 (40%)(win), Seattle -1.5 (30%)(win), Denver +3 (31.3%)(win)
Week 4: (10/4/09 through 10/5/09) These plays have sucked early on, but the tide will turn. Sports betting is a marathon, not a sprint. The public is up to their usual ways of siding with most of the favorites. As always, we really like a few of these. Listed below, we'll list the team, spread and the percentage of the public betting our pick. Good luck, this is bound to turn around soon.
Week 4 Picks: Seattle +10 (30%)(loss), Chicago -10 (41.5%)(win), Pittsburgh -6.5 (40.5%)(win), Denver +3 (37.5%)(win), Miami +1 (36.5%)(win), Cin/Cle UNDER 37.5 (39.9%)(loss)
Week 3: (9/27/09 through 9/28/09) There's some pretty decent public fades out there this week. Pretty weak showing so far by these plays but give it time, i'll fix itself. We'll list our play along with the percentage of the public betting our pick. We hope you have a profitable week 3!
Week 3 Picks: Cincinnati +3.5 (34.1%)(win), Buffalo Bills +6 (32.4%)(loss), Seattle Seahawks +2.5 (25.9%)(loss) and St. Louis +6.5 (23.2%)(loss). Indy/Arizona UNDER 48.5 (31.3%)(win)
Week 2: (9/20/09 through 9/21/09) There's only a handful of NFL games this weekend in which they are getting even action. We like a handful of these games. We'll post the ones we like below along with the percentage of the action the teams are getting.
Week 2 Picks: Bengals +9.5 (39.4%)(win), SF -1 (46%-This play barely qualifies but we love the Niners this week)(win), KC -3 (40%)(loss), NYJ +3.5 (36.3%)(win), Eagles +1 (29.7%)(loss), N.O/Philly UNDER 46 (26.9%)(loss), Miami +3 on MNF (29%)(loss)
Week 1: (9/10/09 through 9/14/09) As usual, the public is in love with a ton of dogs in the opening week. Unfortunately, we agree with them on some accounts, however, we do have some anti public plays that we feel have some value. The first game we like is Monday Night's total. It's currently sitting at 43 and the public is hammering it to the tune of 62%. We feel it's set about 5 points higher than what it SHOULD be. The Washington Redskins are getting no respect despite adding 2 EXCELLENT defensive players that are going to make a huge difference for the Skins. Washginton is only getting 39% of the action. Win, lose or draw, there's great value in this line.
The next game we like is the Chiefs/Ravens. Bettors have it in their mind that the Chiefs suck after their horrible showing last year. Their a bit improved. Getting 13 points is a ton in the NFL and Baltimores offense isn't exactly a scoring machine. KC is only seeing 36% of the action and most of those are sharps. We like the Chiefs as scary as that sounds.
Week 1 Picks: KC Chiefs +13 (loss), Washington Redskins +6.5 (win), SD/Oakland UNDER 43 (loss)
Super Bowl XLIII: We are in awe that the public is siding with the Cardinals to the tune of 62%. Sure, their hot, but last we checked defense wins Super Bowls and after seeing Arizona's 3rd quarter meltdown vs. Philly I'm not sold that they can stop the Steelers. Furthermore, this is a revenge game. We'll take our chances with the Steelers laying the points.
Our Super Bowl XLIII Consensus Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers -7. (loss)
NFL Divisional Playoffs: Baltimore, who is a very good team, visits Tennessee in a matchup that pits two of the NFL's best defenses. It could be said that these teams mirror each other but that is not true in one important regard, QB play. Jeff Fisher has Kerry Collins on a short leash and has built an offense that makes very few mistakes due to how conservative the play calling is. This should keep a Baltimore team who relies on turnovers to win, from knocking down the mighty Titans of Tennessee. We love the Titans here who are only getting 43% of the action!
The other game we like this weekend is Arizona at Carolina. The Panthers have flat out steam rolled opponents at home, Arizona is horrible on the road, especially when traveling east and how are the Cards gonna stop the run? All this yet the Panthers aren't getting any respect at 43%? Take the Panthers who blowout the Cardinals this weekend.
Our Divisional Playoff Consensus Picks: Titans -3 (loss) and Panthers -9.5 (loss).
NFL Playoffs Round 1: We chit the bed last week going 1-2, but expect to get it back in with the opening round of the NFL playoffs. The public is one siding the Atlanta Falcons (60%) on the road and they're not even the better team of the two. Take the Cardinals and get down heavy on them.
Our NFL Playoffs Round 1 Picks: TRIPLE PLAY (3.3 units to win 3) on the Arizona Cardinals at +1! (winner winner chicken dinner!)
Weeek 17: As usual, we're opposite of the public on a few games this week. The first game we like is Tennessee at Indy. The Colts and Tony Dungy could care less about this game. They just want to get their starters rested up and healthy for the playoffs. Look for Tennessee to win by double digits and the 68% of the public who are on the Colts to be scratching their heads. Next, Jacksonville visits Baltimore in which the public is in love with all the points the Jags are getting. Only 41% are on the Ravens who need this win and even though Jacksonville is knocked out of the playoffs, we'd probably still lay the -11 even if they needed the game because THEY ARE THAT BAD. Lastly, the NYG travel to the dome to take on the Vikings. The NYG coaching staff claims they'll be playing to win despite the fact that their playoff spot is locked up. That doesn't necessarily mean he'll be leaving his starters out there past the 1st half though. Expect a massive dose of Adrian Peterson and a Vikings big win.
Our Week 17 Picks: Tennessee -3 (loss), Baltimore -11 (winner) and Minnesota -7 (loss)
Week 16: Buffalo rolls into Denver as a six-point dog and is only getting 40.3% of the action. Last we checked, Denver can't stop the run so we fell them laying "almost a touchdown" is a bit much. Another team only seeing 40% of the action is St. Louis. The 49ers aren't worthy of laying points on the road and their star RB Frank Gore is OUT for this weekends game as well. Lastly, the Seahawks, a team that isn't as bad as their record indicates and also one who plays tough at home, are getting 3.5 from the Jets. This line openeed at Jets -5 and it's pure sharp action that's beating the number down.
Our Week 16 Picks: Buffalo +6.5 (win), St. Louis +5 (win) and Seattle +3.5 (win).
Week 12: Houston, which we think is the best bet on the board this week is getting no respect at 31.2%. San Diego who is getting only 34% of the action should be a winner as well vs. Indy. Good luck!
Our Week 12 Picks: Houston +3 (winner) and SD -3 (loss)
Week 11: Passing.
Week 10: New Orleans vs. Atlanta (45%), Jacksonville vs. Detroit (43.1%), NYG vs. Philly (40%), KC vs. SD (38.2%).
Our Week 10 Picks: Atlanta -1 (winner), Detroit +6.5 (loss), Eagles -3 (loss), SD -15 (loss).
Week 9: As always, we see plenty of public fades. Games such as GB (+3.5) and Houston (+5.5) aren't really being one sided, but are still out of the public's favor so we'll count those this week. The squares are loving Dallas this week with NYG only getting 44%. We love the Gmen. Seattle, a tough place to play, is getting no respect either at 29%.
Our Week 9 Picks: Packers +3.5 (win), Texans +5.5 (loss), NYG -9.5 (win) and the Seattle Seahawks +6.5 (loss).
Week 8: Passing.
Our Week 8 Picks: Passing.
Week 7: Some great opportunity here this week that we're feeling strong about. Time to get back on the + side this week! Sorry for no analysis, we're running late this week.
Our Week 7 Picks: Bills -1 (38%) (winner), Panthers -3 (43%) (winner), Vikings +3 (32%) (loser), St. Louis +7 (41%) (winner), GB +1.5 (24.9%) (winner), Washington -7 (43%) (loss) and NE -3 (38.5%) (winner).
Week 6: Passing.
Week 5: As if the economy wasn't bad enough on people's pocket books, this week's NFL games look to destroy the general betting public. The Vegas Oddsmakers are out for blood this week. If your not an astute bettor, you should skip this week. These lines are the absolute nastiest I think I've ever seen in all my years of capping the NFL. Let's dive into the numbers!
First we start off with what is surely one of the fishiest lines you may ever see. Indy laying ONLY -3 to Houston? A whopping 76% of the public are hitting the Colts and the line hasn't moved. The Colts may very well win, but the lack of a line move doesn't bode well for the people betting on the Colts. We've seen this type of smelly line before and it usually signifies a blood bath for the public.
TB visits Denver in which Denver opened as a -3.5 fav. Despite a whopping 2/3 of the public being on the Broncos, this line has dropped to 3. What does that tell you?
Aaron Rodgers is NOT likely to play for GB on Sunday. He's no gamebreaker but we don't think Flynn is ready for the bigtime, even vs. a weak team like ATL. Look for Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood to help the Falcons who are seeing only 34% of the action, keep the spread within 3. The next game we like features the Bills vs. the Falcons. The public is starting to fall in love with Buffalo. We agree, their good, but Arizona (45%( gets the money this week at home. Bad spot for the Bills. Tennesee has played some good ball, but how are they going to score vs. Baltimore (41%)? Lastly, SD is good, but laying -6.5 on the road at Miami (33%) is a joke. Bill Parcells has the Phins playing harder and better.
Week 5 Picks: Houston +3, TB +3, Falcons +3.5, Arizona -1. Ravens +3, Dolphins +6.5.
Week 4: We can always count on fading the betting public's opinion to create some good ol' winners for us each season. This week is no different. A good Minnesota team is getting only 36.5% of the vote vs. a Tennessee team that is much overrated in that they have beat up on some really crappy teams so far this season. We'll gladly take the +3 here. The public can't resist loving the Packers once again this week and for whatever reason J. Gruden and crew down in Tampa never seem to get the respect they deserve. When the public sides with a dog, it ALMOST ALWAYS means the out of favor favorite wins the game. We like Tampa here minus the one point. Same story in Washington as the public can't help themselves with the +10.5 being offered with the Redskins. What their not thinking about though is the fact that Washington doesn't have the type of team that can come back from being down big and we do expect them to be down big at one point in the game. Lay the wood with the Cowboys (41.1%).
Our Week 4 Picks: Vikings +3 (loss), Buccaneers -1 (win), Cowboys -10.5 (loss)
Week 3: There's some great value with NFL consensus picks in Week 3. Let's start with the Packers (31%) who are getting zero respect after looking real good during the first 2 weeks of the season with Aaron Rodgers at the wheel. Jacksonville is only getting 44% of the vote vs. Indy and their probably the better team. We'll take the points there. Lastly, everybody is still in love with Bret Favre and the Jets who will play on MNF and are getting a hefty 9.5. Don't be afraid to lay the wood with the Chargers (37%). This game has blowout written all over it.
Our Week 3 Picks: Packers +3 (loss), Jags +5.5 (win) and Chargers -9 (win) .
Week 2: Passed.
Week 1: As expected, NFL bettors are antsy to bet and there's a ton of one sided action in week one. Tampa rolls into N.O. where all we've heard about is the Saints being a much improved team while you never hear anything about the Bucs who just quietly get better and better every year. The public is loving the Saints and hitting them to the tune of 72%. Tampa Bay COULD very well win this game. Another game team getting a ton of action are the Steelers laying -6.5 to Houston. Houston is much improved and Pittsburgh (67.5%) has got issues. We'll happily grab those six.five! The beauty of the Week is the Cards/Niners game where Arizona is laying points on the road and the public is buying into it (57%). Since when are the Cards good enough to lay pts on the road much less at home?
Sad but true, many bettors will be looking for a bailout game on Monday and looking to both road teams to heal their wallet's wounds. Unbeknownst to them, both home teams (Green Bay and Oakland) are sheep in wolves clothing and are both likely not just going to cover, but win straight up. The public must love Adrian Peterson enough (65%) to forget that the Packers have a stellar defense. In the other game, Denver (63%) is laying 3 to Oakland. We all love to hate on Oakland and Al Davis, but last we checked Denver can't stop the run and you can bet the Raiders are going to give them a massive dose of McFadden/Vargas. Look for the Raidas to win straight up and for Raider Nation to be piping off about a potential undefeated season LOL. We'll let them think what they want, as long as we cash vs. Denver!
Our Week 1 Picks: Tampa Bay +3 (loss), Houston +6.5 (loss), San Francisco +2.5 (los), Packers -1 (win) and Raidas +3 (loss).
2007-2008 Record: 36-31-1 +2.90 units
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