Welcome to one of our favorite pages, NFL consensus picks. This is where the heart of our handicapping is located. The oddsmakers put out lines and odds each week with hopes of duping the perception of the general betting public. Late in the week we investigate which games are being one sided, then we determine which games are sharp action vs. square plays by tracking line movement and other relevant variables.
Over the course of the NFL season, this makes for some huge profits and in our estimation, this is the best way to bet on NFL games as it has provided us a nice tidy profit each of the past few years since we've instituted this technique of handicapping.We highly recommend you check this page out every week. Plays are usually posted by late Friday afternoon each week. We also recommend that you don't go at this on your own, because sometimes the betting public is right so that means you can't take just go against "any" game that is getting one sided. There are many variables we put into action before settling on a pick.
If you came to this page looking for consensus plays from numerous professional handicappers, we're sorry, we don't offer that as those plays are stolen and it's a spit in the face to the cappers who work hard to cap plays all week only to have their picks smeared all around the web by consensus services without the originating service receiving any compensation for them.
Super Bowl 47: San Francisco 49er's -3.5 (37%)(pending)
Conference Championships: (1/20) New England Patriots -9 (28%)(loss).
Divisional Playoffs: (1/12 through 1/13) Denver Broncos -10 (44%)(loss) and GB/SF UNDER 45 (40%)(loss).
Wildcard Weekend: (1/5 through 1/6) Green Bay -8 (34%)(win).
Week 17: (12/30) Jets +3 (30%)(loss), Texans -7 (34%)(loss), Eagles +7 (43%)(loss), Detroit Lions +3 (36%)(win), Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 (40%)(win), Carolina Panthers +4 (29%)(win).
Week 16: (12/22 through 12/23) Detroit Lions +4.5 (loss), St. Louis Rams +3 (36%)(win), Kansas City Chiefs +7 (26%) (push).
Week 15: (12/13 through 12/17) Atlanta -1 (39%)(win), Houston Texans -10 (34%)(win).
Week 14: (12/6 through 12/10) Pittsburgh Steelers -8 (34%)(loss), Tennessee Titans +5 (27%)(win), Hou/NE UNDER 51 (31%)(loss).
Week 13: (11/29 through 12/2) Dallas -10.5 (43%)(loss), Detroit -6.5 (42%)(loss), San Diego +1.5 (39%)(loss), Denver -7.5 (37%)(win), St. Louis +8 (33%)(win), Redskins +3 (36%)(win).
Week 12: (11/22 through 11/26) Lions +3.5 (27%)(win), Jets +7 (24%)(loss), Bengals -8.5 (40%)(win), Bills +3 (29%)(loss), Chargers +1 ***3 UNIT BEST BET ALERT*** (34%)(loss), 49ers -1 (38%)(win), Rams +1 (37%)(win), Giants -3 (39%)(win).
Week 11: (11/15 through 11/19) Eagles +3.5 (36.6%)(loss), Patriots -9 (39%)(win), Panthers +1.5 (32%)(loss), Chiefs +3.5 (30%)(loss), Steelers +3.5 (29%)(win).
Week 10: (11/8 through 11/12) Bengals +4 (30%)(win), Rams +12.5 (36%)(win).
Week 9: (11/1 through 11/5) Panthers +3 (40%)(win), Titans +3.5 (31%)(loss), Raiders -2 (37%)(loss), Cowboys +3.5 (43%)(loss).
Week 8: (10/25 through 10/29) Vikings -5.5 (43%)(loss), Miami +2 (33%)(win), Seattle +2.5 (42%)(loss), Philly -3 (44%)(loss), Pittsburgh -4 (36%)(win), Denver -6 (35%)(win), Arizona +7 (42%)(loss).
Week 7: (10/18 through 10/22) Browns +2 (36%)(loss), Buccaneers +1.5 (29%)(loss), Bengals +1 (40%)(loss).
Week 6: (10/11 through 10/15) Browns +2.5 (38%)(win), Dolphins -4.5 (43%)(loss), Seahawks +3.5 (30%)(win).
Week 5: (10/4 through 10/8) Rams +1 (40%)(win), Seahawks +3 36%)(win), Chargers +3.5 (41%)(loss), Chiefs +6.5 (26%)(win).
Week 4: (9/27 through 10/1) Kansas City +1.5 (43%)(loss), Green Bay -7.5 (35%)(loss), Philadelphia -2 (35%)(push), Buffalo +3.5 (27%)(loss), Jacksonville +1 (26%)(loss).
Week 3: (9/20 through 9/24) Carolina +1 (40%)(loss), Jacksonville Jaguars +3 (27%)(win), Cleveland Browns +3 (43%)(loss), Dallas Cowboys -9 (43%)(loss), Chicago Bears -7 (42%)(win), Miami Dolphins +1 (34%)(loss), GB/SEA UNDER 45 (38%)(win) .
Week 2: (9/14 through 9/17) Arizona +14 (24%)(win), Tennessee +6.5 (32%)(loss), St. Louis Rams +3.5 (28%)(win), Carolina Panthers +2.5 (23%)(win), Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 (29%)(loss).
Week 1: (9/5 through 9/10) St. Louis Rams +9 (26%)(win), Tennessee Titans +6 (26%)(loss) and Arizona Cardinals (32%)(win).
Previous Year's Plays and Records
AFC/NFC Championships: (1/22) Patriots -7 (43%)(loss)
Divisional Playoffs: (1/14 through 1/15) San Francisco 49ers (41%)(win), Green Bay Packers -8 (38%)(loss)
Wildcard Weekend: (1/7 through 1/8) Lions/Saints UNDER 59.5 (29%)(loss)
Week 17: (1/1) None of our Week Seventeen plays qualify.
Week 16: (12/22 through 12/26) Indianapolis Colts +6 (30%)(win), Bills +3 (31%)(win), Jets -3 (38%)(loss), Vikings +6.5 (44%)(win), Seahawks +2 (36%)(push), Cowboys -1.5 (38%)(loss), Bears +13.5 (36%)(loss), Bears/Packers UNDER 43.5 (34%)(loss), Falcons +7 (39%)(loss)
Week 15: (12/15 through 12/19) Miami Dolphins +1 (30%)(win), San Diego Chargers +2.5 (39%)(win), Oakand Raiders +1 (37%)(push), Denver Broncos +7.5 (36%)(loss), St. Louis Rams +7 (20%)(push).
Week 14: (12/8 through 12/12) Jacksonville Jaguars +3 (39%)(win), Dallas Cowboys -4.5 (29%)(loss)
Week 13: (12/4 through 12/5) Colts +20.5 (32%)(win), Titans +2.5 (42%)(win), Dolphins -3 (38%)(win), Houston +3 (30%)(win), Arizona +4.5 (29%)(win), Washington +3 (27%)(loss)
Week 12: (11/24 through 11/28) Ravens -3 (37%)(win), Lions +6.5 (43%)(loss), Jets -9.5 (loss).
Week 11: (11/17 through 11/21) Buccaneers +14 (29.6%)(win), Tennessee +6 (33.1%)(push), Washington +7 (43%)(win), Baltimore -7 (43%)(push), Miami -1.5 (34%)(win), Minnesota +1 (33%)(loss).
Week 10: (11/10 through 11/14) SF 49ers -3.5 (43.2%)(win), Jets -1.5 (38.3)(loss), Cowboys -5.5 (37.4%)(win), Colts +3 (35.1%)(loss), Seahawks +7 (22.3%)(win), Rams/Browns OVER 37 (39.8%)(loss).
Week 9: (11/6 through 11/7) Colts +7 (23%)(loss), Jets (42%)(win), Broncos +7.5 (42%)(win), Chargers +6 (30%)(loss).
Week 8: (10/30 through 10/31) Redskins +5 (25%)(loss), Steelers +2.5 (31%)(win), Seahawks +2.5 (41%)(loss), Vikings +3.5 (40%)(win), Lions/Broncos UNDER 41.5 (36%)(loss), Chiefs +3.5 (36%)(win).
Week 7: (10/23 through 10/24) Redskins +2.5 (33%)(loss), Seahawks +3 (40%)(push), Titans -3 (41%)(loss), Dolphins pickem (34.5%)(loss), Chiefs +4 (28.6%)(win), Vikings +9.5 (18.8%)(win), Jets +1.5 (42.5%)(win).
Week 6: (10/16 through 10/17) Baltimore Ravens -7 (changed spread to -7 at 5:34AM EST on gameday - Better line avaiable than the original -8) (43%)(win), SF/DET UNDER 46 (43%)(win), Car/ATL UNDER 50.5 (35%)(win), Dallas Cowboys +6.5 (32.8%)(win), Minnesota Vikings +3 (37.2%)(loss), Washington Redskins +1 (40%)(loss).
Week 5: (10/9 through 10/10) Kansas City Chiefs +2 (29%)(win), Seattle Seahawks +9.5 (32.4%)(win), Denver Broncos +4 (26.9%)(loss), Carolina Panthers +6.5 (34.7%)(win), New England Patriots -9 (43%)(push)
Week 4 (10/2 through 10/3) Broncos +12.5 (31%)(loss), Cowboys -1.5 (34%)(loss), Raiders +4.5 (30%)(loss), Cardinals +1 (30%)(loss), Seahawks +4.5 (21%)(win).
Week 3 (9/25 through 9/26) Bengals -3 (40%)(loss), Eagles -9 (36%)(loss), Vikings +3.5 (28%)(win), Raiders +3 (39%)(win), Buccaneers -1.5 (27%)(win), Seahawks +3.5 (24%)(win).
Week 2: (9/18 through 9/19) Chargers +7 (34.4%)(loss), Bears +6.5 (39.2%)(loss), Bengals +3.5 (43%)(win), Falcons +2.5 (37%)(win), Dolphins +3 (31%)(loss), Panthers +10 (27%)(win).
Week 1: (9/8 through 9/12) Bengals +6.5 (29%)(win), Bills +5.5 (43.3%)(win), Bucs -2 (40%)(loss), Jaguars -1.5 (37.8%)(win), NE/MIA UNDER 45.5 (33%)(loss)
Super Bowl XLV: Pit/GB UNDER 46 (39.5%)(pending)
Conference Championships: GB/CHI UNDER 44 (35.6%)(win)
Divisional Playoffs: Packers (41.5%)(win), Steelers -3 (37.5%)(win), Jets/Pats UNDER 45 (38.6%)(loss)
Wildcard Weekend Picks: Seahawks +10.5 (39.5%)(win), Chiefs +3 (30%)(loss).
Week 17 Plays: (1/2) Bills +1.5 (27%)(loss), Panthers +14 (37%)(loss), Packers -9.5 (42%)(loss), Browns +5.5 (loss)(34%).
Week 16 Picks: (12/23 through 12/27) Vikings +14 (31%)(win), Titans +5 (40%)(loss), Redskins +7 (37%)(win), Broncos +3 (34%)(win), Raiders +3 (31%)(loss).
Week 15 Picks: (12/19 through 12/23) Packers +14 (28.2%)(win), NYG -3 (40%)(loss), Titans -1 (32%)(win), Seahawks +6 (24%)(loss).
Week 14 Picks: (12/9 through 12/13) Buffalo Bills -1 (36.6%)(win), Miami Dolphins +5 (37.1%)(win), Dallas Cowboys +3.5 (38.9%)(win), Washington Redskins +1 (35%)(push), Minnesota Vikings +3 (32%)(loss).
Week 13 Picks: (12/2 through 12/6) Washington +7 (42.2%)(loss), Tennessee -3 (33%)(loss), Baltimore -3 (40%)(loss).
Week 12 Picks: (11/25 through 11/29) Jacksonville Jaguars +7 (38%)(win), San Diego Chargers +3 (39%)(win), Baltimore Ravens -7.5 (38%)(loss), Seattle Seahawks +2.5 (35%)(loss).
Week 11 Picks: (11/18 through 11/22) NYG +3 (37%)(loss), Buffalo +5 (40%)(win), SF -3.5 (38%)(loss), St. Louis +3 (28.5%)(loss).
Week 10 Picks: (11/10 through 11/15) Falcons -1 (41%)(win), Steelers -4.5 (43.4%)(loss), SF -6 (36.6%)(loss), Cleveland +3 (35%)(loss), Chicago +1 (33.5%)(win), Jacksonville -1 (30%)(win).
Week 9: (11/7 through 11/8) Short on time this week, so will just be posting our pick and what % the public is backing them. Good luck!
Week 9 Picks: Chargers -3 (42.5%)(win), Falcons -8.5 (31%)(loss), Lions +4 (31%)(win), Eagles -3 (29.5%)(loss), Browns +4.5 (20%)(win).
Week 8: (10/31) There's quite few games in which we'll be fading the public this week. We especially like the favorites that we're listing below as the word is out to all the squares in gambling land that the dogs are covering at an alarming rate. As expected, they're biting like crazy taking interest in more underdogs in any single week that we've seen in a LONG time. It's likely that they're going to get bit big-time today. Be careful out there! The first game we like is Carolina getting +3 at STL. This line has held steady despite the Panthers getting a thin 24% of the action. Next we like the Vikings getting +5.5 at New England. Many have given up on the Vikes (29% this week) but they're still a very solid team an the Patriots D is surely exploitable. Next we like the Saints at -1 who are only getting 40% of the action. They actually opened as a +1 dog and the line has moved 2 points making them the fav now. Lastly, we like the Detroit Lions who are only seeing 37% of the action in their matchup vs. the Skins. Despite getting the lesser amount of bets, the Lions have bumped up from -1 to -2.5. Good luck!
Week 8 Picks: Carolina Panthers +3 (loss), Minnesota Vikings +5.5 (loss), New Orleans Saints -1 (win), Detroit Lions -2.5 (win).
Week 7: (10/24) We're picking ourselves up and dusting off after a brutal ending to the Broncos game where Denver blew the game late and the Ravens/Pats over which barely missed. For the record, we'd bet those picks 100x over given the opportunity but there's no use in crying over backdoor covers and bad beats so let's check out our take on NFL Week 7! Our first play is the Browns who are only getting 36% of the action yet have mysteriously gone from +14 down to +13. The second game we like (LOVE) is the Bears at home vs. the Skins. All you've heard about on ESPN this week is how the Chicago offensive line is so horrible. Doom and gloom! This Bears team is good folks and they won't need much offense here (they'll get it though) as McNabb SHOULD have major problems vs. the defensive unit. The Bears are getting no respect at the windows with only 36% of the action. We don't rank games by stars, but if we did, this would be our strongest play for the weekend. The third game we like is Carolina (36%) at home getting 3 points. I'm convinced that SF is a fraud. I really thought they'd be good this season but after watching them through the first six weeks of the season, I believe they can't seal the deal. Carolina is not a bad team despite their horrible showing this season. I expect Matt Moore to be more efficient now that he's got the starting QB job back and for the Panthers to get the win here. Lastly, I like the Chargers (31%) at home laying -2 vs. N.E. This SD team is way better than most think. Don't let the absence of Malcolm Floyd scare you off either. Patrick Crayton is not much of a dropoff at WR. I really believe that Brady will struggle vs. the Charger secondary, the SD offense will click this week and that they'll also cure their special teams issues.
Our Week 7 Picks: Browns +13 (win), Bears -3 (loss), Panthers +3 (win), Chargers -2 (loss).
Week 6: (10/17) Uneventful 1-2 last week. As we noted on our line move play, we'd hit that Buffalo 100x over given the chance, it just didn't work out. We only like a few this week. San Francisco (41%) is one of the best 0-5 teams in NFL history. Look for them to crush an overrated Raiders team. The Jets are getting one sided action vs. Denver who is only getting 39% of the action. We like the Broncs for a hanful of reasons with the key ones being: 1. NYJ are coming off a rough MNF game which puts them in a short week situation. 2. Denver is a tough place to play for visiting teams as the altitude factor relative to conditioning comes into play. (Especially in the 2nd half). 3. Denver isn't a bad team! We'd actually LAY 3 with the Broncos, so with them getting +3, we're in pig heaven with this one. Lastly, the Under in the Bal/NE game is getting hammered. The OVER is only getting 41% of the action which is really ironic, as people haven't seem to have figured out that Baltimores D isn't as good as it used to be AND more importantly, they've become a passing team! The Patriots defense sucks and special teams may help this one easily go over as well. We really like this week's picks and EXPECT a 2-1 at worst.
Week 6 Picks: 49ers -6.5 (win), Broncos +3 (loss), Ravens/Patriots OVER 45 (loss).
Week 5: (10/10 through 10/11) 3-1 last week. Let's keep it rollin'! Look for Carolina (40%) to get back on track vs. a Bears team that SHOULD have issues moving the ball up and down the field. The best play in this game might be the under lol. We like the Panthers though who seem to have realized that their strength is running the ball, not having a rookie QB toss INT's all over the field. The second game we like is the Jax/Bills game. Buffalo is receiving 37% of the betting action and this matchup actually favors them. No, we're not looking at Jax to be in a letdown here. We just don't like them at this time and especially in this spot. Look for the Bills to piece together a win here in what is likely to be a very ugly/boring game. Lastly, we like the Packers/Skins game. The Redskins are only getting 28% of the action yet the line has dropped from the all-mighty 3 down to +2.5. That's big news and you know what that means. The books think Wash. is going to win straight up and they're likely right here.
Week 5 Picks: Carolina -1.5 (loss), Buffalo -1.5 (loss), Washington +2.5 (win)
Week 4: (10/3 through 10/4) The anti-consensus has been strong so far. Quite a few games fit into the parameters this week. Our first (and strongest) play is the Giants. As a general rule of thumb, when the public sides with an underdog, it usually doesn't cover. This rule doesn't always apply of course, but when it's happening and the anti-team is coming off a MNF game (short week), this play is SUPER hot. We absolutely love the Giants (40%) this week. The second game we like is Indy/Jax. A division rival that always plays the Colts tough getting 7 points at home? Yes, the Jags (29%) have underperformed. NO, it's not likely that they'll lay down for the Indy. This is one of those games that looks easy but ends up being a 3 point game. The third game we like is the Cinci/Cleve game and our take is likely to make you laugh out loud. The Browns are only getting 25% of the action and they're the better team. The Bengals have all the tools but lack the chemistry necessary to win games (right now). Lastly, we love the UNDER 47.5 in the MNF game between the Pats/Phins. We believe Miami will enter this matchup with a gameplan of trying to run-run-run and eat up clock keeping Tom Brady off the field. We've seen them apply this method vs. Peyton Manning and there's no reason to think that they won't do it with the Pats.
Week 4 Picks: Giants -3.5 (win), Jaguars +7 (win), Browns +3 (win), Patriots/Dolphins UNDER 47.5 (loss).
Week 3: (9/26 through 9/27) Like usual, we like quite a few games that the public doesn't. The Cowboys have looked like crap so far this year and we expect that to end this week. The public is all over the Texans (61%) but they're a go against in this spot as they have given up a ton of passing yards and the Cowboys should thrive in that regard, hence our picking the Pokes to cover here. The Titans (43%) aren't getting any respect because of all the controversy surrounding Vince Young. We're not sold on the Giants and we think Tenn. can win straight up here. It's rare to see the public siding with an underdog (Detroit) but when it does happen, the favorite usually covers. Look for Minnesota (37% of the action) to get healthy this week and to smash Detroit big. Lastly, the Panthers are getting ZERO respect this week (18%) yet the line hasn't moved off of 3. That should tell you something. The Panthers are a WAY better team than they've shown through the first 2 weeks and the benching of QB Matt Moore was just what they needed. We exepct them to win straight up this weekend vs. the Bungles.
Our Week 3 Picks: Cowboys +3 (win), Titans +3 (win), Vikings -11.5 (win), Panthers +3 (loss).
Week 2: (9/19 through 9/20) There's lots of games getting one sided that offer us naysayers great value this week. The most notable are the Browns laying 2 points vs. the Chiefs. With KC in a short week (they played mnf last week) they're vulnerable here. The Browns aren't as bad as most think. The Steelers will again be without Ben Roethlisberger but the public will soon realize that the team can win without him. All we hear about is Chris Johnson this and Chris Johnson that. He's good, but laying 5 points vs. a good team like Pitt is a mistake. The squares are all over Tenn. to the tune of 65% yet the line has moved down a point from 6 to 5. Pitt COULD win this game straight up.
Everybody is dumping on poor Detroit. They're a better team this year folks! The Lions are only getting 28% of the action this week and the line has spiked from -3 to -6.5. We love it. We'll take Detroit all day here vs. an Eagles team that is banged up. The jury is still out on the 2010 Vikings. The jury is NOT out on the Dolphins, they're good. The public loves Brett Favre though and are hammering him and the Vikes to the tune of 70%. That's sweet music to our ears because we believe Miami can win this game straight up so getting +5.5 is music to our ears. We thought about throwing the Jets into the mix (20%) but we need more time to assess this year's Patriots team that appears to be darn good! Good luck Fellas!
Week 2 Plays: Browns -2 (loss), Steelers +5 (win), Lions +6.5 (win), Dolphins +5.5 (win)
Week 1: (9/9 through 9/13) We like 3 "anti public" plays this week. The Texans line has dropped from -3 to -2 despite only getting 30% of the action. We believe they win straight up here. Carolina is getting +6.5 at NY and is only getting 40% of the action. The Panthers have a shot to win this game straight up so there's great value here. Lastly, we like the Chiefs on MNF to cover the spread vs. the Chargers. The public is absolutely pounding SD (75%) yet the line has moved down from -5.5 to +4.5. You do the math!
Week 1 Predictions: Houston +2 (win), Carolina +6.5 (loss), KC +4.5 (win)
Superbowl XLIV (Week 21): This is probably the most slim percentage we've ever picked and considered to be an anti-consensus pick but it's the Super Bowl, so what the hell. We REALLY like the Saints to not only cover, but to win. Their defense is grossly underrated and we actually expect them to not only cover the point spread of +5, but to win straight up by a field goal or more and frankly it wouldn't surprise us if they won by two touchdowns. It's been a great run with these picks this year. We hope you were able to cash on them. Good luck and enjoy your Super Sunday!
Super Bowl 44 Consensus Picks: New Orleans +5 (47.5%) (win).
Previous Week's Results
Conference Championships (Week 20): The anti consensus play is usually reserved for games where the public is one siding a team. We're going to bend the rules a bit and go ahead and submit the Saints as a pick even though they're getting 46% of the bets which is almost even action. Saints win by a touchdown or more.
NFC Championship Consensus Picks: New Orleans -3.5 (46%) (loss).
Divisional Playoffs (Week 19): Arizona goes to New Orleans which is a REAL tough place to play. It'll be loud as hell Sunday and the Cards defense secondary SHOULD get beat up badly. Don't be surprised to see Drew Brees hoist up an ungodly amount of passing attempts which will open up the Saints running game for them despite our forecast of a low amount of carries. The only other anti consensus play we like is the TOTAL in the Cowboys/Vikings game. Two tough defenses will rule the tempo Sunday in a game that should see it's final score land in the mid 30's.
Divisional Playoffs Consensus Picks: New Orleans -7 (41.6%)(win), Dallas/Minnesota UNDER 45.5 (38.6%)(win).
Wildcard Weekend (Week 18): We got healthy last week with a much needed 6-0. This week we like 2 games. Philly vs. Dallas and Baltimore vs. N.E..
Wildcard Weekend Consensus Picks: Cowboys -3 -135 (42.8%)(win), Baltimore +3.5 (39%)(win).
Week 17: There are tons of games that fit our parameters this week. See below.
Week 17 Picks: Washington +3.5 (19.9%)(win), Dallas -3 (41%)(win), Cleveland -1 (40%)(win), Minnesota -9 (35.5%)(win), NYJ -10 (32.5%)(win), Seattle +4.5 (17.7%)(win).
Week 16: Passed.
Week 15 Tennessee +4 (38.9%)(win), Cincinnati +3 (41.1%)(win), Tampa Bay +9.5 (23.8%)(win), Denver (36%)(loss).
Week 8: (11/1/09 through 11/2/09) Jacksonville/Tennessee TOTAL, Houston vs. Buffalo, Minnesota vs. Green Bay, Oakland vs. San Diego, St. Louis vs. Detroit, SF vs. Indy.
Week 8 Picks: Jacksonville/Tennessee OVER 44.5 (32.9%)(loss), Buffalo Bills +3.5 (31.3%)(loss), Green Bay Packers -3 (35.9%)(loss), Oakland Raiders +16.5% (41.2%)(win), St. Louis +4 (39.4%)(win), SF +13 (36.5%)(win).
Week 7: (10/25/09 through 10/26/09) SF vs. Houston, NYJ vs. Oakland, Minnesota vs. Pittsburgh, SD vs. KC and GB vs. Cleveland.
Week 7 Picks: SF +3 (44%)(push), Oakland +6 (42.8%)(loss), Pittsburgh -6 (37.4%)(win), KC +5.5 (31%)(loss), Cleveland +9.5 (26.5%)(loss).
Week 6: (10/18/09 through 10/19/09) We only like one this week. Carolina plays at Tampa and the Bucs are a +3 home dog. The public is hammering the Panthers while the Bucs are only getting 32% of the action and we fully expect them to get their 1st straight up win of the season.
Week 6 Picks: Buccaneers +3 (loss).
Week 5: (10/11/09 through 10/12/09) Washington vs. Carolina, Dallas vs. KC, Jacksonville vs. Seattle, New England vs. Denver.
Week 5 Picks: Washington +4 (27.3%)(win), KC +7.5 (40%)(win), Seattle -1.5 (30%)(win), Denver +3 (31.3%)(win)
Week 4: (10/4/09 through 10/5/09) These plays have sucked early on, but the tide will turn. Sports betting is a marathon, not a sprint. The public is up to their usual ways of siding with most of the favorites. As always, we really like a few of these. Listed below, we'll list the team, spread and the percentage of the public betting our pick. Good luck, this is bound to turn around soon.
Week 4 Picks: Seattle +10 (30%)(loss), Chicago -10 (41.5%)(win), Pittsburgh -6.5 (40.5%)(win), Denver +3 (37.5%)(win), Miami +1 (36.5%)(win), Cin/Cle UNDER 37.5 (39.9%)(loss)
Week 3: (9/27/09 through 9/28/09) There's some pretty decent public fades out there this week. Pretty weak showing so far by these plays but give it time, i'll fix itself. We'll list our play along with the percentage of the public betting our pick. We hope you have a profitable week 3!
Week 3 Picks: Cincinnati +3.5 (34.1%)(win), Buffalo Bills +6 (32.4%)(loss), Seattle Seahawks +2.5 (25.9%)(loss) and St. Louis +6.5 (23.2%)(loss). Indy/Arizona UNDER 48.5 (31.3%)(win)
Week 2: (9/20/09 through 9/21/09) There's only a handful of NFL games this weekend in which they are getting even action. We like a handful of these games. We'll post the ones we like below along with the percentage of the action the teams are getting.
Week 2 Picks: Bengals +9.5 (39.4%)(win), SF -1 (46%-This play barely qualifies but we love the Niners this week)(win), KC -3 (40%)(loss), NYJ +3.5 (36.3%)(win), Eagles +1 (29.7%)(loss), N.O/Philly UNDER 46 (26.9%)(loss), Miami +3 on MNF (29%)(loss)
Week 1: (9/10/09 through 9/14/09) As usual, the public is in love with a ton of dogs in the opening week. Unfortunately, we agree with them on some accounts, however, we do have some anti public plays that we feel have some value. The first game we like is Monday Night's total. It's currently sitting at 43 and the public is hammering it to the tune of 62%. We feel it's set about 5 points higher than what it SHOULD be. The Washington Redskins are getting no respect despite adding 2 EXCELLENT defensive players that are going to make a huge difference for the Skins. Washginton is only getting 39% of the action. Win, lose or draw, there's great value in this line.
The next game we like is the Chiefs/Ravens. Bettors have it in their mind that the Chiefs suck after their horrible showing last year. Their a bit improved. Getting 13 points is a ton in the NFL and Baltimores offense isn't exactly a scoring machine. KC is only seeing 36% of the action and most of those are sharps. We like the Chiefs as scary as that sounds.
Week 1 Picks: KC Chiefs +13 (loss), Washington Redskins +6.5 (win), SD/Oakland UNDER 43 (loss)
Super Bowl XLIII: We are in awe that the public is siding with the Cardinals to the tune of 62%. Sure, their hot, but last we checked defense wins Super Bowls and after seeing Arizona's 3rd quarter meltdown vs. Philly I'm not sold that they can stop the Steelers. Furthermore, this is a revenge game. We'll take our chances with the Steelers laying the points.
Our Super Bowl XLIII Consensus Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers -7. (loss)
NFL Divisional Playoffs: Baltimore, who is a very good team, visits Tennessee in a matchup that pits two of the NFL's best defenses. It could be said that these teams mirror each other but that is not true in one important regard, QB play. Jeff Fisher has Kerry Collins on a short leash and has built an offense that makes very few mistakes due to how conservative the play calling is. This should keep a Baltimore team who relies on turnovers to win, from knocking down the mighty Titans of Tennessee. We love the Titans here who are only getting 43% of the action!
The other game we like this weekend is Arizona at Carolina. The Panthers have flat out steam rolled opponents at home, Arizona is horrible on the road, especially when traveling east and how are the Cards gonna stop the run? All this yet the Panthers aren't getting any respect at 43%? Take the Panthers who blowout the Cardinals this weekend.
Our Divisional Playoff Consensus Picks: Titans -3 (loss) and Panthers -9.5 (loss).
NFL Playoffs Round 1: We chit the bed last week going 1-2, but expect to get it back in with the opening round of the NFL playoffs. The public is one siding the Atlanta Falcons (60%) on the road and they're not even the better team of the two. Take the Cardinals and get down heavy on them.
Our NFL Playoffs Round 1 Picks: TRIPLE PLAY (3.3 units to win 3) on the Arizona Cardinals at +1! (winner winner chicken dinner!)
Weeek 17: As usual, we're opposite of the public on a few games this week. The first game we like is Tennessee at Indy. The Colts and Tony Dungy could care less about this game. They just want to get their starters rested up and healthy for the playoffs. Look for Tennessee to win by double digits and the 68% of the public who are on the Colts to be scratching their heads. Next, Jacksonville visits Baltimore in which the public is in love with all the points the Jags are getting. Only 41% are on the Ravens who need this win and even though Jacksonville is knocked out of the playoffs, we'd probably still lay the -11 even if they needed the game because THEY ARE THAT BAD. Lastly, the NYG travel to the dome to take on the Vikings. The NYG coaching staff claims they'll be playing to win despite the fact that their playoff spot is locked up. That doesn't necessarily mean he'll be leaving his starters out there past the 1st half though. Expect a massive dose of Adrian Peterson and a Vikings big win.
Our Week 17 Picks: Tennessee -3 (loss), Baltimore -11 (winner) and Minnesota -7 (loss)
Week 16: Buffalo rolls into Denver as a six-point dog and is only getting 40.3% of the action. Last we checked, Denver can't stop the run so we fell them laying "almost a touchdown" is a bit much. Another team only seeing 40% of the action is St. Louis. The 49ers aren't worthy of laying points on the road and their star RB Frank Gore is OUT for this weekends game as well. Lastly, the Seahawks, a team that isn't as bad as their record indicates and also one who plays tough at home, are getting 3.5 from the Jets. This line openeed at Jets -5 and it's pure sharp action that's beating the number down.
Our Week 16 Picks: Buffalo +6.5 (win), St. Louis +5 (win) and Seattle +3.5 (win).
Week 12: Houston, which we think is the best bet on the board this week is getting no respect at 31.2%. San Diego who is getting only 34% of the action should be a winner as well vs. Indy. Good luck!
Our Week 12 Picks: Houston +3 (winner) and SD -3 (loss)
Week 11: Passing.
Week 10: New Orleans vs. Atlanta (45%), Jacksonville vs. Detroit (43.1%), NYG vs. Philly (40%), KC vs. SD (38.2%).
Our Week 10 Picks: Atlanta -1 (winner), Detroit +6.5 (loss), Eagles -3 (loss), SD -15 (loss).
Week 9: As always, we see plenty of public fades. Games such as GB (+3.5) and Houston (+5.5) aren't really being one sided, but are still out of the public's favor so we'll count those this week. The squares are loving Dallas this week with NYG only getting 44%. We love the Gmen. Seattle, a tough place to play, is getting no respect either at 29%.
Our Week 9 Picks: Packers +3.5 (win), Texans +5.5 (loss), NYG -9.5 (win) and the Seattle Seahawks +6.5 (loss).
Week 8: Passing.
Our Week 8 Picks: Passing.
Week 7: Some great opportunity here this week that we're feeling strong about. Time to get back on the + side this week! Sorry for no analysis, we're running late this week.
Our Week 7 Picks: Bills -1 (38%) (winner), Panthers -3 (43%) (winner), Vikings +3 (32%) (loser), St. Louis +7 (41%) (winner), GB +1.5 (24.9%) (winner), Washington -7 (43%) (loss) and NE -3 (38.5%) (winner).
Week 6: Passing.
Week 5: As if the economy wasn't bad enough on people's pocket books, this week's NFL games look to destroy the general betting public. The Vegas Oddsmakers are out for blood this week. If your not an astute bettor, you should skip this week. These lines are the absolute nastiest I think I've ever seen in all my years of capping the NFL. Let's dive into the numbers!
First we start off with what is surely one of the fishiest lines you may ever see. Indy laying ONLY -3 to Houston? A whopping 76% of the public are hitting the Colts and the line hasn't moved. The Colts may very well win, but the lack of a line move doesn't bode well for the people betting on the Colts. We've seen this type of smelly line before and it usually signifies a blood bath for the public.
TB visits Denver in which Denver opened as a -3.5 fav. Despite a whopping 2/3 of the public being on the Broncos, this line has dropped to 3. What does that tell you?
Aaron Rodgers is NOT likely to play for GB on Sunday. He's no gamebreaker but we don't think Flynn is ready for the bigtime, even vs. a weak team like ATL. Look for Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood to help the Falcons who are seeing only 34% of the action, keep the spread within 3. The next game we like features the Bills vs. the Falcons. The public is starting to fall in love with Buffalo. We agree, their good, but Arizona (45%( gets the money this week at home. Bad spot for the Bills. Tennesee has played some good ball, but how are they going to score vs. Baltimore (41%)? Lastly, SD is good, but laying -6.5 on the road at Miami (33%) is a joke. Bill Parcells has the Phins playing harder and better.
Week 5 Picks: Houston +3, TB +3, Falcons +3.5, Arizona -1. Ravens +3, Dolphins +6.5.
Week 4: We can always count on fading the betting public's opinion to create some good ol' winners for us each season. This week is no different. A good Minnesota team is getting only 36.5% of the vote vs. a Tennessee team that is much overrated in that they have beat up on some really crappy teams so far this season. We'll gladly take the +3 here. The public can't resist loving the Packers once again this week and for whatever reason J. Gruden and crew down in Tampa never seem to get the respect they deserve. When the public sides with a dog, it ALMOST ALWAYS means the out of favor favorite wins the game. We like Tampa here minus the one point. Same story in Washington as the public can't help themselves with the +10.5 being offered with the Redskins. What their not thinking about though is the fact that Washington doesn't have the type of team that can come back from being down big and we do expect them to be down big at one point in the game. Lay the wood with the Cowboys (41.1%).
Our Week 4 Picks: Vikings +3 (loss), Buccaneers -1 (win), Cowboys -10.5 (loss)
Week 3: There's some great value with NFL consensus picks in Week 3. Let's start with the Packers (31%) who are getting zero respect after looking real good during the first 2 weeks of the season with Aaron Rodgers at the wheel. Jacksonville is only getting 44% of the vote vs. Indy and their probably the better team. We'll take the points there. Lastly, everybody is still in love with Bret Favre and the Jets who will play on MNF and are getting a hefty 9.5. Don't be afraid to lay the wood with the Chargers (37%). This game has blowout written all over it.
Our Week 3 Picks: Packers +3 (loss), Jags +5.5 (win) and Chargers -9 (win) .
Week 2: Passed.
Week 1: As expected, NFL bettors are antsy to bet and there's a ton of one sided action in week one. Tampa rolls into N.O. where all we've heard about is the Saints being a much improved team while you never hear anything about the Bucs who just quietly get better and better every year. The public is loving the Saints and hitting them to the tune of 72%. Tampa Bay COULD very well win this game. Another game team getting a ton of action are the Steelers laying -6.5 to Houston. Houston is much improved and Pittsburgh (67.5%) has got issues. We'll happily grab those six.five! The beauty of the Week is the Cards/Niners game where Arizona is laying points on the road and the public is buying into it (57%). Since when are the Cards good enough to lay pts on the road much less at home?
Sad but true, many bettors will be looking for a bailout game on Monday and looking to both road teams to heal their wallet's wounds. Unbeknownst to them, both home teams (Green Bay and Oakland) are sheep in wolves clothing and are both likely not just going to cover, but win straight up. The public must love Adrian Peterson enough (65%) to forget that the Packers have a stellar defense. In the other game, Denver (63%) is laying 3 to Oakland. We all love to hate on Oakland and Al Davis, but last we checked Denver can't stop the run and you can bet the Raiders are going to give them a massive dose of McFadden/Vargas. Look for the Raidas to win straight up and for Raider Nation to be piping off about a potential undefeated season LOL. We'll let them think what they want, as long as we cash vs. Denver!
Our Week 1 Picks: Tampa Bay +3 (loss), Houston +6.5 (loss), San Francisco +2.5 (los), Packers -1 (win) and Raidas +3 (loss).
2007-2008 Record: 36-31-1 +2.90 units
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