NFL Consensus Picks

Welcome to one of our favorite pages, NFL consensus picks. This is where the heart of our handicapping is located. The oddsmakers put out lines and odds each week with hopes of duping the perception of the general betting public. Late in the week we investigate which games are being one sided, then we determine which games are sharp action vs. square plays by tracking line movement.

Over the course of the NFL season, this makes for some huge profits and in our estimation, this is the best way to bet on NFL games as it has provided us a nice tidy profit each of the past few years since we've instituted this technique of handicapping.

We highly recommend you check this page out every week. Plays are usually posted by late Friday afternoon each week. We also recommend that you don't go at this on your own, because sometimes the betting public is right so that means you can't take just "any" game that is getting one sides. There are many variables we put into action before settling on a pick.

If you came to this page looking for consensus plays from numerous professional handicappers, we're sorry, we don't offer that as those plays are stolen and the it's a spit in the face to the cappers who work hard to cap plays all week only to have their picks smeared all around the web by consensus services without them getting any compensation for them.

ATS Record (36-31-1) +2.90 Units

Super Bowl XLII: New York Giants vs. New England Patriots. The Patriots are only getting 39% of the wagering action. We love New England in this spot as when the public sides with the underdog, that usually means that they have been duped into a sucker line!

Big Game Pick: Patriots -12

PREVIOUS WEEK'S PICKS:

Divisional Playoff Weekend: New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys are only getting 34.7% of the action here. We love Dallas in this spot!

Wildcard Picks: Cowboys -7 (loss)

Wildcard Weekend: NYG/Tampa Bay. The Bucs are getting no respect playing at home getting only 45% of the vote. They are the better team here.

Wildcard Picks: TB -2.5. (loss)

Week 17: Carolina/TB, Tennessee/Indy, Dallas/Washington, Jacksonville/Houston, Pittsburgh/Baltimore.

Our Week 17 Picks: Carolina -2.5 (35.39%) (Winner), Tennessee -4.5 (37.6%) (Winner), Washington -9 (40%) (Winner), Houston -6 (34.2%) (Winner), Baltimore +3 (25.5%) (Winner).

Week 16: Washington vs. Minnesota and Cleveland vs. Cinci.

Our Week 16 Picks: Redskins +6 (44%) (Winner), Bengals +1 (35%) (Winner).

Week 15: We're pretty disgusted at our performance this year to say the least as consensus picks are usually our bread and butter plays. Go figure. No analysis this week, just plays as we're in a hurry to get to bed!

Our Week 15 Picks: Pittsburgh -3 (45.3%) (loss), Raiders +10.5 (18.3%) (Winner), Chargers -10 (45.8%) (Winner), Jets +21 (43.3%) (Winner).

Week 14: There are a great many anti public plays with value this week. These games include: Oakland/GB, Pitt/NE, Indy/Baltimore, NYG/Phil, SD/Tennessee..

Our Week 14 Picks: Oakland +10.5 (37.7%) (loss), New England -10.5 (43.1%) (Winner), Baltimore +9 (42.2%) (loss), Eagles -3 (40%) (loss), Tennessee pickem (29.7%) (tough loss).

Week 13: The public is one siding damn near the whole board this week which makes our job very easy when it comes to fading as they basically make the picks for us minus a few that we just don't have a feel for. Atlanta(24.4%) is NOT a good team by any means, but the Rams may be worse. We'll take the 3 points here despite the dirty birds being on the road. Cinci (44%) isn't exactly getting no respect, but at +7 we'll take our chances. We feel that Pittsburgh is a good team but that they may have "peaked" a little too soon this season. Cinci is indeed playing some better ball as well. Jacksonville is getting +6.5 at Indy and the bookies have the public siding with the dog. Indy at 47% isn't exactly being one sided, however any time the sportsbooks convince the public to play on a dog, usually means bad news for joe square. We like the Colts here, especially with Marvin Harrison returning this week.

Another game that isn't exactly a landslide % wise, but the Bears (45%) getting +1.5 at home in bad weather vs. a QB who doesn't like cold weather and a team whose starting RB is questionable with injury is a great proposition. Yeah, Cedric Benson is out but he's sucked this year anyway. Adrian Peterson is no slouch. We'll take the Bears at home getting the point and a half. Arizona (30.6%) is getting no respect at home vs. Cleveland. Why not? Their going to win straight up! Great job by the books here to dup. the public into another worthless underdog. KC (27%) getting +6 vs. San Diego isn't as scary as it sounds. If you looked up every game in the last 10 years at Arrowhead in which the Chiefs got this many points it'd probably be a no brainer that you'd have to side with them. Many of their injuries have actually created upgrades at most positions as odd as that may sound. The Chargers (as much as I like their team) are helter skelter, unproven and are worth of a go against this week.

Our Week 13 Picks: Falcons +3 (loss), Bengals +7 (loss), Colts -6.5 (loss), Bears +1.5 (loss), Cardinals -1 (Winner), Chiefs +6 (loss).

Week 12: San Fran. (38%) visits Arizona and is a 10.5 dog. The Niners have stunk and played horrible ball this year yet they aren't as bad as they've appeared to be. Frank Gore is getting healthier and as the year goes on they have continued to get less and less respect and the bookies are trying to pull one over on us. Double digit dogs in the NFL have always been good bets regardless of the team or how bad their playing. We're on the NIners here. Another team getting no respect is the Bears (44%). They host the Broncos who are NOT a very good road team. We like the Bears here to cover the small favorite line. Lastly, same situation as above.. Lack of respect. The Rams are getting healthier and Seattle plays well at home but is suspect on the road. We like the Rams (36.5%) to win and cover here..

Our Week 12 Picks: San Francisco +10.5 (Winner), Chicago -1.5 (Winner), Rams +3 (loss).

Our Week 11 Picks: San Diego visits Jacksonville where the Jags have a strong home field advantage against a helter skelter SD team. We love the fact that the Jags are favored and only getting 38.6% of the action. Take the Jags at -3. Arizona visits Cinci. in what may be the "fishy line of the week." When a betting line looks too good to be true, it usually is. Arizona isn't playing bad ball either. We're siding with Arizona (33.9%). St. Louis who couldn't fight their way out of a wet paper bag visits SF for who the same thing could be said. The Niners are getting healthier despite that comment not being relative to their QB Alex Smith. Hell, we'd rather see Trent Dilfer in at this point anyway. While not a flashy QB, he should make very few mistakes and lead the Niners to a straight up win here as an underdog. We're fading the public opinion here and going with the 49ers who are only seeing 30% of the wagering action.

Cleveland visits Baltimore Sunday with the Ravens getting absolutely no respect. Balt. is only getting 30.2% of the action and we love them in this spot in what we expect to be a close high scoring game. Pittsburgh takes their dominating team into NY to face the Jets in which Pittsburgh is fielding one sided actioin to the heavy tune of 72%. We don't blame the public for thinking that way because Pitt. is indeed a damn good team. The problem here is that good teams win and bad teams cover. A road team laying -9.5 in the NFL is a great go against (historically) and we're not about to start arguing those solid numbers despite the Jets being somewhat weak. We do like the fact that they've gone with a QB change as Kellen Clemens is a legit 1st string NFL starting QB who will only get better with time. Take the Jets +9.5. Lastly, Tampa Bay visits Atlanta. The Falcons (25%) are getting no love here and they know it. There is no better motivation for a team to bring their "A" game than them having something to prove. Look for TB to go down straight up today and for the Dirty Birds to get a win.

Week 9 and 10: Passed.

Week 8: The public is back doing what they do best; one siding games making life easy for us "faders." Buffalo is at NYJ in which the Jets are a 3 point fav. and only getting 45% of the action. This team is DUE and this is a bad spot for Buffalo. N.O. travels into SF laying 3 points vs. a hungry Niner team in search of a win. The Niners are only getting 37% of the action. Speaking of home teams looking for a win, the Rams are a 3 point dog at home vs. Cleveland? and are only getting 34.2% of the action. Did somebody forget to tell the squares that S. Jackson is back? Wrong team favored.

Our Week 8 Picks: NYJ -3, SF +3, Rams +3.

Week 7: Baltimore at Buffalo and St. Louis at Seattle.

Our Week 7 Picks: Bills +3 (Winner) and Rams +8.5 (loss).

Week 6: Let's start with Cinci/KC. The Cinci defense is like a wet paper bag and their going against one of the NFL's best rushers over the past 20 years? And laying 3 on the road? And at Arrowhead which is one of the best home field advantages in the NFL? KC is only getting 27.5% of the action. Yes, there is the worry of the Chiefs getting down and not having the offense to come back, but we're sure the coaching staff is aware of that fact as well and will be stringing the game along slowly with a fat dose of Larry Johnson. Expect to see 40 carries out of the big back and for the Chiefs to be in the game the whole way through. Jacksonville welcomes Houston in what is another of the NFL's best home field advantages. The public seems to have fallen in love with Houston as they got out of the gate strong but we don't see them hanging with Jacksonville who the public is disrespecting and only giving 43.3% of the action. Next we move to Eagles at Jets. Both of these teams stink but the value lies with the Jets here who are only receiving 29.9% of the action. A beat up STL team travles to Baltimore where they have a very slim shot of doing anything on offense. We're expecting a blowout yet the public is only giving Baltimore 39.5% of the betting action. Tennessee visits TB who we feel is one of the best teams in the NFL. Yes, we said that. TB -3 is the play here. Side with the 35.6% that like them and we'll see you at the window. That's all folks! Good luck!

Our Week 6 Picks: KC +3 (Winner), Jacksonville -6.5 (Winner), NYJ +3.5 (loss), Baltimore -9.5 (Winner) and Tampa Bay -3 (tie).

Week 5: Back after a nice 2-1 week! If your having a MNF get together you will surely be the life of the party if you take our pick of Buffalo at +10. Double digit dogs on MNF are probably the most solid bet in the history of NFL betting. That's not to say this won't lose, we love it though. (Buffalo only getting 28% of the action) Other games we have interest in are: Detroit/Washington, Chicago/Green Bay, Atlanta/Tennessee and the total in the Seattle/Pittsburgh game.

Our Week 5 Picks: Washington -3 (Winner) (buying the half point) 42%, Buffalo +10 28% (Winner), Chicago +3 29.8% (Winner), Atlanta +8 45.6% (Winner) and the UNDER 39.5 in the Seattle/Pittsburgh game 30.2% (Winner).

Week 4: Back and fired up after a crappy 2-3 last week. Almost every game is one sided this week, with exception to the Oakland/Miami game which is getting even action so we'll have to be careful we don't fall into playing too many picks! For starters, the public is hitting the UNDER in the Chi/Det game to the tune of 60%. We feel their wrong and that this game goes into the 50's as both defenses are not only suffering from injuries but are playing some weak D. Seattle is getting a bit much respect on the road as 56% of the public are giving the Seahawks their action. We couldn't disagree more. We like SF in this spot getting 2 points. The Giants and Eli Manning who has had previous success vs. this very same Eagles team should have no problem picking apart Philly's weak injury plagued secondary are getting +3 at home. The public is favoring the Eagles at 64.8%. Last we checked, all the Eagles have done is beat a really bad Lions defense up. McNabb looked great last week but still has to be considered inconsistent at this point. We love the Gmen getting +3 here. Good luck!

Our Week 4 Picks: Chi/Det OVER 45 (Winner), SF +2 (loss), NYG +3 (Winner)

Week 3: We are in love with this week's card. Ya never know what will happen but it sure does look like taking candy from a baby! We are absolutely in love with 4 picks that the public are giving absolutely no consideration/respect. Play one is Jacksonville +3. Denver is getting a whopping 70% of the action yet can't stop the run? KC is only getting 40% of the action vs. a Vikings team that comes into the hostile environment of Arrowhead Stadium. The Vikings have held their own this year but don't have the defense to win on the road, especially at this stadium! Dallas must be Americans team this year as their getting 60.8% of the action vs. the Bears. Last we checked the Bears D was rock solid and they are indeed playing at home this week. We'll lay the 3 points and pray that Rexy doesn't turn the ball over too many times. We also like the UNDER 47 with Texas/Indy. The line has dropped a half point while the public is hammering the over. That's a sign of sharp action. We'll tail that as we think the line is too high in the first place as well. After all, Houston is missing their leading WR that's done almost all of their offensive scoring this season. Lastly, Carolina, a team that completely fell apart AT HOME last week vs. a mediocre Texans team is laying points on the road? Sure it's Atlanta, but the Falcons aren't as bad as people think. Carolina is getting pummeled by the squars to the tune of 78.46%. That is sweet music to our ears. Look for the Falcons to get their first win this week.

Our Week 3 Picks: Jacksonville +3 (Winner), KC -2.5 (Winner), Chicago -3 (loss), Atlanta +4 (loss), Indy/Houston UNDER 47 (loss).

Week 2: Last week's anti-public plays turned out to be a pile of crap but no worries, these picks will surely soon even out and then earn us some profits shortly thereafter. As always, we see plenty that gets us excited this week. The public is hitting St. Louis to the tune of 62.9% despite the fact that the Rams looked horrible last week vs. a questionable Carolina team and are now missing their best cornerback and massive offensive lineman Orlando Pace for the year. What was once a bright year for the Rams has quickly become dim and SF rolls in this week as a live dog getting 3 points. As a sidenote, there are 4 double digit dogs this week in the NFL and we're on NONE of them. It makes me wanna puke because we love to get points, but we just don't see the value there. There are some BAD teams in the NFL and we need a few more weeks to let things play out to gage how bad and how good some of these teams really are. Back to the action! GB took down Philly last week and all of a sudden Joe Public thinks the Pack is back. NYG had a setback vs. a decent Dallas team while losing their top RB Jacobs and QB Eli Manning to injury. The Pack comes to NY Sunday as a one point dog and the public is hammering them. Despite the Giants woes, laying a point in this game makes them a valuable play. Expect them to win and people to rememmber that the Pack is still the Pack. The next game we like features Indy/Tenneessee. The Titans looked damn good last week vs. a very respectable Jax team and ON THE ROAD to boot! Now their at home for their home opener and are getting a touchdown. Indy is as good as advertised however this Tennessee team is much improved and getting a touchdown is very generous. The squares are hitting Indy to the tune of 67.9% too, making Tennessee a nice play here. Another GEM on this week's card and quite possible the play of the week is Arizona laying 3 at home vs. Seattle. The public is on Seattle 70.9% vs. an Arizona team that will likely beat them by a touchdown. We absolutely LOVE this game. Take the Cards who won't be able to stop the Cardinals offense. Lastly, the public is expecting a ton of points to be scored in the Indy/Ten game. Their hammering it good and it still dropped a point which clearly states that betting syndicates are hitting the UNDER. We agree. We don't think it even comes close to 46 and feel good about hitting the under here. There are a ton of other games that the public is one siding this week but we're just not comfortable with them this early in the season. No rush though as it's early in the season and what matters is that we make plays when the value is on OUR side!

Our Week 2 Picks: SF +3 (Winner), NYG -1 (loss), Tennessee +7 (Winner), Arizona +3 (Winner), Indy/Tenn UNDER 46 (Winner).

Week 1: As usual, the public is being the public and it's confirmed our thoughts on some very tasty plays. The Eagles are getting pounded to the tune of 72% in which we'll fade that move and take the Packers at +3. Same thing with the Seahawks getting hammered to the tune of 79.2%. Don't get us wrong, their a good team but Tampa Bay isn't as bad as many anticipate and six points is a ton so we'll gladly grab those win, lose or draw. Another misconception is that the Browns are going to bend over for all visiting opponents. (Pitt getting 75.6% of the action) These guys are much improved and don't play half bad at home. The line has been bet up to +5 and we're getting a piece. The public is Vince Young crazy too (52.3%), forgetting that the Tennessee defense has more holes than a block of swiss cheese and that Jacksonville possesses one of the best home field advantages in the National Football League. We'll take the Jags and their triple headed monster rushing attack in what we think may be a blowout. Our last "non totals" pick includes the NYG getting zero respect after the media has people wondering if Eli Manning is an NFL quality QB. Eli will never be Peyton but he is more than formidable now that he has some experience behind him. Grab the +6, laugh at the 64.5% who are one siding them and we'll see you at the cashiers cage.

We like some totals this week too. The public hears the words Miami/Washington and can't help themselves (60.93% betting the under) but think all defense no offense. Both clubs have improved on the O side of the ball and at 34 there's some great value here with the OVER. Detroit/Oakland won't be able to stop each other hence the fat line move from 36 up to 39 and it still may climb as we can see this game going into the forties. The public isn't hammering this game however at 53.2% they are on the wrong side which allows us to throw them into the mix. Over 55% of the public is on the over in the Philly/BG game too. Not exactly a one sided showing however their on the wrong side. The value here is with the UNDER as GB's defense is MUCH improved. We expected this game to be around 38 so we'll gladly take the extra points and feel like we're getting some value here.

Our Picks: GB +3 (Winner), TB +6 (loss), Browns +5 (loss), Jacksonville -7 (loss), NYG +6 (loss), Mia/Wash OVER 34 (loss), Det/Oak OVER 39 (Winner), Philly/GB UNDER 42 (Winner). Good luck ya'll.

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