Dallas Cowboys (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) vs. San Francisco 49ers (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS)
NFL Week 4
Date/Time: Sunday, October 2, 2016 at 4:25 PM EST
Where: Levi's Stadium
by Jeff Hochman, Professional Handicapper, JHSportsline.com
Point Spread:Dall -3/ SF +3
The San Francisco 49ers will look to snap its two-game losing skid when they host the Dallas Cowboys. Dallas crushed the Bears on SNF 31-17 as 6.5-point home chalk. The Cowboys outgained Chicago 447-390 and enjoyed a time of possession advantage by almost 11 minutes. Ezekiel Elliot had his best day of his young career with 140 rushing yards on 30 carries. He also caught 2 balls for 20 yards. Elliott looks to be getting better and better with each game. Dak Prescott continues to impress with his poise and accuracy. Not to mention his running ability. Dallas is 2-1 ITS (in the stats) this season. The 49ers lost to the Seahawks 37-18 as 10-point road underdogs. San Francisco was outgained 418-254 and only had 12 First-downs for the entire game. The 49ers are 1-2 ITS this season, having been outgained by 256 yards combined.
Dallas Scored 31 points last week. That's the highest total since beating the Redskins 44-17, in the last game of the 2014 season. The 49ers defeated the Cowboys, 28-17 at AT&T Stadium the last time these clubs met in 2014, snapping a three-game losing streak to Dallas in the process. Dallas has won two straight road games against San Francisco (both by 3 points), but this will be the first time the teams will take the field at Levi's Stadium. The Cowboys need to win this game in the worst way. Their schedule gets extremely tougher after this game. They play the Bengals, Packers, Eagles, Steelers, and Ravens with two BYE's one in week 7 and the other against the Browns in Week 9. Just kidding Browns fans!
Carlos Hyde ran for 103 yards and two touchdowns in Week 2 against the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers are expected to have a decent run defense and they do. Dallas is only allowing 89.3 rushing yards per game so far. Hyde will be the most physical running back that Dallas has faced so far this season. I think if the 49ers stick to it they will be able to find some holes. Dak Prescott threw for 248 yards and recorded his first two career touchdowns last Sunday. Prescott now has 99 consecutive pass attempts without an interception to begin his career--second most in league history behind Carson Wentz of the Eagles (102). The 49ers' pass defense has played better than the Cowboys' stop unit. In fact, the entire 49ers defense is allowing 5.7 yards per play compare to 6.4 for the Cowboys.
The public is pounding the Cowboys in this game as you might expect. At one high-limit sportsbook, 71% of the bets are on Dallas. Keep in the mind, the Cowboys played one of the worst defenses (Bears) in the entire league last Sunday Night. The public only remembers what they saw last week. I wouldn't take to much stock into that win over the Bears. The Bears are a mess and injuries have a lot to do with that. This game looks to easy to take the favorite and is the other "trap" game I was talking about it. Look for my Denver/Tampa Bay preview on these pages to learn more. I am a big time Cowboys' fan, so I hope the Cowboys win but don't cover. The 49ers return home after getting embarrassed in Seattle. This will be the Cowboys second straight road game. Wise guys will be all over the host at +3 or better. Chip Kelly is a very good coach and should have his guys fired up at home.
The Underdog is 18-9 in the last 27 Cowboy games. The 49ers are 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS against NFC East foes over the last three seasons. San Francisco is 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS as home underdogs of 3 points or less over the last three seasons. Dallas is 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS in October games over the last three seasons.
Jeff's Pick to Cover the Point Spread:San Francisco 49ers +3
The Cowboys don't generate that much of a pass rush. I think the 49ers will be able to throw the ball on this defense. Dallas will get some help with the return of DeMarcus Lawrence next week. Look for the 49ers to play with passion after losing two straight road games by 19 points each. There is a scenario where the Cowboys play a great game and cover this soft spread. Should be a close game either way, especially if Dez Bryant is OUT. I just don't see any kind of a blowout by either squad. I would like the 49ers a lot more if this line opened 1 point higher. The odds-makers are very sharp. Slight lean to the home team.
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