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Dallas Cowboys vs. Atlanta Falcons Point Spread - Pick ATS

Dallas Cowboys (5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS) vs. Atlanta Falcons (4-4 SU, 2-6 ATS)
NFL Week 10
Date/Time: Sunday, November 12th, 4:25 ET
Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium - Atlanta, GA
TV: FOX
by Bob, NFL Football Handicapper, Predictem.com

Point Spread: DAL +3/ATL -3
Over/Under Total: 50.5

This Sunday, there is an NFC showdown that the NFL figured would be such a huge game that it got bumped from 1:00pm to 4:25pm although it is on the east coast.  The Dallas Cowboys travel to the Dirty South to take on the Atlanta Falcons.  These two teams were seconds away from facing off in the NFC Title Game last season until Dallas ended up losing to Green Bay.  Heading into 2017, many expected these two teams to again be right in the mix to head to the Super Bowl.  So far, not so good.  The Falcons are as inconsistent as they come at 4-4 while Dallas is 5-3 overall but have not looked all that impressive so far.

The line has the Falcons as a three point home favorite over the Cowboys while the total points are set at 50.5 total.  So far, the action likes the Cowboys in a big way.  66% of the documented betting action thinks Dallas gets the cover on the road.  As for the over under, 56% thinks that this one goes over that total in what could be a shootout.

The Atlanta Falcons came storming out in 2017 at 3-0.  Since that 3-0 start, they have lost four of five games and in my opinion three of those four losses were games they should have won...Buffalo, Miami, and Carolina.  They also dropped a Sunday night game at New England and although I can accept that loss, the Falcons looked BAD...real bad.  The glaring problem for the Falcons has been their offense.  An offense that just a year ago was an all time historical offense has now become just an average NFL offense.  Atlanta still with Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Devonte Freeman, and the rest of the crew from 2016 is now only averaging 21 points per game, which is almost two touchdowns a game worse than last season.  Of course you cannot expect a team to repeat that type of success, but with the weapons this team has, they should at least be in the top five to ten of the league in scoring...and that just is not the case. 

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The Falcons defense has not played well but they are not the reason for the four losses.  The offense is putting this defense in bad spots and in those four losses, the Falcons have not given up more than 23 points in any of those games.  A year ago, that is a guaranteed four wins when the defense keeps the opponent under 24 to 28 points.  Fact is, the key to this game Sunday is the offense.  Matt Ryan and the rest of the offense MUST do better, plain and simple.  One aspect though that the defense must fix is the penalties.  Atlanta has already had three interceptions on their side of the field called back for dumb penalties, late hits, etc.  There needs to be more focus by the defense and it will get even better than it is now.

Dallas is 5-3 and sitting in 2nd place in the NFC East behind the Philadelphia Eagles.  Thus, Dallas and Atlanta need this game for the potential wild card race that will be taking place down the stretch.  What started out as a shaky 2017 has calmed down and the Cowboys have won three straight headed into this game.  On the season, Dallas is ranked 4th in the NFL in scoring offense averaging around 28 points per game.  This is due large in part by the magnificent run game that is rushing for nearly 150 per game and is ranked 2nd in all of the league.  Ezekiel Elliott has rushed for over 800 yards and seven touchdowns already but the question every single week is will he play?  It has been a back and forth ride since week one whether or not he will be allowed to play each week.  I cannot and will not predict anything, but I will handicap this game as if Zeke IS PLAYING...just to be safe.

What does Dallas have to do to get the road win?  Exactly what they have done all year:  run the ball and control the clock.  The Falcons are already having issues on offense and if Dallas can come in and keep the Atlanta O on the sideline and grind out long drives, this could be a long night for the Birds.  However, if Dallas allows Matt Ryan and the rest of the Falcons unit get going, this could get real interesting.

As much as I want to take Atlanta because they are my team, I am not. They have shown me nothing over the last four to five weeks to let me know they are improving.  Every post game presser with Coach Dan Quinn is the same ol ho hum.... we have things to work on this week.  Well heres an idea Coach Quinn....WORK ON THEM! GET BETTER! STOP TALKING ABOUT IT AND DO IT!  I will not pick Atlanta as a favorite again until I see some major improvements.  With that said, I think Dallas comes into Atlanta and wins a 27-23 game that sees Atlanta driving in the final seconds to win only to fall short...again.

Bob's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: TAKE THE DALLAS COWBOYS +3 ON THE ROAD - If you went to the store and two of the same exact product were sitting side by side; One for $105.00 and one for $110.00, which would you buy? THE CHEAPER ONE OF COURSE! So why are you still betting at -110 odds when you could be betting at -105? Dump your overpriced bookie TODAY and start enjoying the benefits of discounted odds at the web's BEST sportsbook: 5Dimes!

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