Dallas Cowboys (12-5 SU, 10-7 ATS) vs. Minnesota Vikings (12-4 SU,
9-6-1 ATS), 1:00 p.m. EST, Sunday, January 17, 2010, Hubert H.
Humphrey Metrodome, Minneapolis, Minn., TV: FOX
by Badger of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Cowboys +2.5/Vikings -2.5
Over/Under: 45.5
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The red-hot Dallas Cowboys take their show on the road to face the ageless Brett Favre and the Minnesota Vikings in the friendly confines of the Metrodome in Minneapolis, Minn., when the NFC plays its second Divisional Playoff game Sunday on the Fox network.
Favre, a fully rested Adrian Peterson and Vikings offensive line, and an offensive game plan that’s been in place for eight days stands waiting for the Cowboys on Sunday. The huge question is will it be enough to stop the Cowboys anyway?
The Cowboys are peaking at the right time having now won five straight, and more importantly quarterback Tony Romo finally got the playoff monkey off his back with another sound defeat of the Philadelphia Eagles last weekend in the Wild Card opener, 34-14, so the Cowboys and Romo are playing at a high level with a ton of confidence right now.
If the old cliché of defense wins championships holds true, then the Cowboys unit has taken it upon themselves to turn it up allowing just over a touchdown per game (7.75 ppg) during the five-game streak. The way the Cowboys defense dismantled Donovan McNabb and the Eagles in their 14-point, 4-sack, 4-turnover effort last week was enough to sway opinions to move the Cowboys to the top of the NFC list on some cards.
The heavy presence of “America’s Team” at the betting window along with their current “hot” status is enough for the Cowboys to move the point spread down a few points more than normal this week, since the Vikings opened as just the standard 3-point home favorites. The early money is moving it down too, as most offshore sportsbooks are already down to Minnesota minus -2.5-points on their boards.
The over/under total opened at 47.5 and has dropped like a rock ever since. It’s currently listed at 45.5 at a majority of the offshore books, but it is still listed at 46 at a few of the houses in Las Vegas and also here and there on the Web.
Offensively there’s not much the Cowboys can’t do right now. Romo has been great, but when the running game gains 198 yards and 5.6 yards per carry like it did last week versus the Eagles, his job is a lot easier.
The Cowboys “razorback” formation with Tashard Choice, as well as their former Razorback himself, Felix Jones (148 yards, TD), could be the Cowboy’s answer to keeping the ball out of the hands of the veteran Favre and the Vikings offense with A.P. on the sideline.
The Vikings got a little redemption in their 44-7 season-ending victory over the Giants, but the playoffs are here and Favre, who was brought in specifically for these types of games, will have the spotlight entirely on him against the surging Cowboys defense.
But the Vikings must rely on Peterson if they hope to get past the surging Cowboys. Philly didn’t mount much of a running attack (only 13 runs) against the Cowboys last week, something that will definitely change with the workhorse A.P. this week.
If the running game and A.P. are denied, or if the Cowboys get ahead fast and force the Vikings to be one-dimensional with Favre throwing, the Cowboys defense has averaged nearly four sacks per game down the stretch, so the Vikings can’t afford to get into that situation.
The Vikings defense stumbled down the stretch and gave up big points (30 to Arizona, 36 to Chicago) in embarrassing fashion a few times, but they still have a formidable unit that is still good against the run (87.1 ypg – 2nd).
Recent history between these teams has been lacking, with the last on-field action coming in the form of a, 24-14, Dallas victory in 2007. The Cowboys also covered that game as 9.5-point favorites.
Otherwise it’s been all Minnesota, as the Vikings won five in row prior to that (making them 5-1 SU in last 6 overall), including a 27-10 victory in the 2000 Wild Card playoffs. They also covered in all five of those games too, including a perfect 3-0 ATS at home as 7- point, 7-point and 3-point favorites.
Badger’s Pick: The Cowboys won’t get near 200 yards rushing against the “Williams Wall” this week, and therefore the Cowboys won’t be nearly as explosive. But the Vikings are going to have to score to win, so I’m going the opposite direction of the line move and am taking the over of 45.5. Take the over of 45.5.
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