Dallas Cowboys (4-3 SU, 6-1 ATS) vs. Detroit Lions (4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS)
NFL Week 8
Date and Time: Sunday, October 27, 2014, 1:00 pm EST
Where: Ford Field, Detroit, Mich.
TV: FOX/DirecTV 704
by Badger, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Dal. +3/Det. -3
Over/Under Total: 51
Two teams both sitting at 4-3 and looking to do more damage in the hunt for an NFC playoff spot will do battle in an early game on Sunday at Ford Field, when the Detroit Lions host the Dallas Cowboys in a week eight NFC showdown on Fox.
The Cowboys enter in the midst of a two-game win streak, with the last victory giving them the early lead in the NFC East in last week’s 17-3 decision in Philadelphia. Tony Romo threw for over 300 yards and a score, and the Cowboys defense has put together two stellar weeks back-to-back after getting carved apart by Peyton Manning and Denver a few weeks back.
Detroit got stud receiver Calvin Johnson back last week after missing two games, but even his 155 yards and two touchdowns couldn’t stop Bengals kicker Mike Nugent’s 54-yard field goal as time expired in a hard one to lose, 27-24. The loss dropped the Lions out of first in the NFC North, and with a bye coming up in week nine, now is the time for Detroit and the Cowboys game at home in Ford Field is a game they have to win to stay in the title hunt.
With a pretty even matchup of offenses, on paper, the oddsmakers set the opening point spread for the game with Detroit as the standard 3-pont favorite at home. Although a few sportsbooks have added the hook to make it minus -3.5, for the most part the number has yet to move in either direction early in the week.
Those two pass-happy offenses are also part of the reason the over/under total opened at 51 and is still listed at that number at most books.
In fact, once you break it down these two teams are so similar on offense that they should be able to stop each other just by watching their practice video. Neither team runs the ball very effectively, although the Cowboys are missing running back DeMarco Murray so they have some excuse. Both teams also have good quarterbacks who like to throw the ball a lot (Det. 5th – 295 ypg; Dal. 8th – 286 ypg), and both also have one stud receiver in Johnson and Dez Bryant that demands double and triple teams from defenses to make them overcompensate.
So then if defense is where this game will turn, then the idea of the Lions and their 28th-ranked pass defense (282 ypg allowed) going against Romo, Bryant and mainstay Jason Witten might keep the Detroit coaching staff in their offices late all week. Since the Cowboys secondary is statistically worse than the Lions (30th vs. pass – 292 ypg), well then forget that whole part about this game turning because of defense.
Detroit won the shootout these two teams had the last time they met in 2011, in a, 34-30, slinging match that saw Matthew Stafford (240 yds., 2 TD), Romo (331, 3 TD), Johnson (2 TD) and Bryant (2 TD) all play well in a game that featured 90 passes in JerryWorld Cowboys Stadium. The last time they met in Detroit was in 2007, in what turned into a, 28-27, nail biter that was won on a last-second Romo pass to Witten.
Not that you need more incentive to wager on the over for this game, but it is a perfect 4-0 in the last four head-to-head meetings and is 5-0 in the Cowboys last five games after holding the opposing team to less than 15 points the previous week.
Badger's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: This one may boil down to which team has the ball last. If forced to make a pick here, I'd bet the Lions.
Editor's Picks - Each week our in house pro's tackle the week's card and make predictions on the week's games ATS! Best bets, top plays, premium selections, etc. FREE!
Expert NFL Picks - Free premium plays from the "real" expert football handicappers from around the web. Don't fall for second rate picks from ESPN, the NFL Network, Hank Goldberg or the screaming touts on TV.
Underdog of the Week Pick - We forecast the loudest barking dog of the week. Expect a 60% winning percentage with these plays.
Favorite of the Week Play - We examine "the chalk" and determine the safest bet in which who you should lay the points with. Forecasting winning favorites long term isn't easy, but we've had some pretty good luck with it over the years.
Line Movement Plays - We report all the major line moves from the gridiron and forecast whether it's public money or sharp action causing the move. Who will cover the spread this week? Our line move plays!
NFL Consensus Picks - See what the general public is betting on. We use this info to fade the public to the tune of big profits over the course of the season.
Bookies Picks - Each week, we'll post which side the bookies are on. Please note: These are not OUR picks. We're simply reporting the teams the bookies need to cover the spread in order for them to win. Games receiving equal action on both sides will not be factored into these records.
Office Pool Picks - (Coming Soon!) You asked for it and you got it! Each week, we'll post our predictions to win each game straight up so that you can RULE your office pool!
NFL Trends - Don't ever let anybody tell you that the trend is your friend. These picks make great fades which is exactly what we do with them.
Monday Night Football Picks - The ultimate bailout play. Our MNF picks are golden and have hit 62% or better 3 out of the past 4 years. (Last season was a disaster!) Did we mention that their FREE?
2014 NFL Predictions - Badger makes projections on each team's record and whether or not they'll go over or under their posted season win totals at the sportsbooks.
Super Bowl Picks - Everybody here in the Predictem office takes their best preseason shot at predicting the winner Superbowl 49. Pride is on the line here! Oh, and LOOT too!
5Dimes - Bet your NFL football picks at -105 odds every day of the week! 15 team parlays! 20 point teasers! Pleasers and huge point buying opportunities as well!
Bovada - Tired of deposit hassles? Bet on football using your credit card at a sportsbook where your Visa CAN and WILL work for deposits! Offers a 50% sign-up bonus up to $250 FREE!
Sportsbook - Deposit $100, make a $100 bet and get a $100 bet FREE! Your credit card WILL work here!
GTBets - You get to select 2 NFL teams and get a FREE half point every time you bet them! Offers a generous 100% bonus on deposits of $100 to $500! One of the best at accepting credit cards for deposits!
Super Bowl Betting - We explain all the different types of wagers you can making including point spread bets, totals, moneylines and prop bets. No need to go to Vegas! You can bet the big game online!
Weekly Fantasy Football - If you drafted a crappy team or the injury bug has bit you and wrecked your season, we've got something really cool to turn you on to that will change the way you play fantasy sports forever!
Famous Football Quotes - From the inspirational to the greatest touchdown calls of all time. We've got them!
Pro Football Hall of Fame - A full list of NFL players who have been inducted into the NFL HOF.
The Spread - Offers free NFL football predictions, matchups, stats including both offensive and defensive and more!
Fantasy Football Sites - Get recommendations on where to find weekly updated player news, depth charts and legit websites that offer the best stat and record tracking for your fantasy football league.