Note: If you're looking for the 2013 Week 16 matchup between these teams, please go here: Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Redskins Pick.
Dallas Cowboys (5-4 SU, 4-4-1 ATS) at Washington Redskins (3-6 SU, 3-6 ATS), 1:00 p.m. EST, NFL Week 11, Sunday, November 20, 2011, FedExField, Landover, Maryland, TV: Fox
by Jeff Hochman, Pro Handicapper, JH-Sportsline
Point Spread: Dal -9/Wash +9
Over/Under Total: 41
Two teams heading in opposite directions meet in this NFC East Week 11 matchup. You can basically throw out the records of the Dallas Cowboys and Washington Redskins when they play each other. That's because the Underdog is 22-6 ATS in the last 28 head-to-head meetings. When the line is 7.5 to 10 points the underdog is 7-1 ATS.
Last Sunday, Dallas kicked the you know what out of Buffalo by winning 44-7. They out-gained the Bills 433 to 271 and easily covered the 5.5-point spread. The Cowboys scored their most points since Sept. 9, 2007, which was the first game that current head coach Jason Garrett was coordinating the offense. They also enjoyed their most lopsided win since Oct. 22, 2000. This 37-point margin is bigger than any regular-season victory in Dallas with Jimmy Johnson, Bill Parcells or Barry Switzer on the sideline. The Cowboys played very well in all facets of that game. That was the game Cowboys fans have been waiting for.
Washington lost its fifth straight game in losing 20-9 at the Dolphins. It was the third straight game the Redskins were 4-point underdogs. After stating the season at 3-1 it has been all downhill since. Washington has lost the stats in all but three games this season. This team is getting sub-par play at the QB position no matter if John Beck or Rex Grossman starts.
When these teams met in Week Three at Dallas, the Redskins were a FG away from defeating the Cowboys and a 3-0 start. Times have changed for sure! Dallas has gotten on track and they find themselves just one game out of first place in the NFC East. Tony Romo picked apart the Bills secondary, but the Redskins have been decent against the pass this season. At home they are allowing 222 passing yards per game and were even better than that earlier in the season. Dallas has a plethora of weapons on offense with the likes of Tony Romo, Demarco Murray, Dez Bryant, Laurent Robinson, Jason Whitten, and rookie kicker Dan Baily. Baily is ranked No. 2 in touch-backs and has missed only one FG all season. The Redskins do not have a lot of weapons on offense and will need to run the ball with success to have any chance at the upset win. The Cowboys have shown in the past couple of weeks that you can run on this defense, but Washington comes into this contest last in rushing yards per game.
Look for the Cowboys to spread the Redskins defense out. Washington has given up some huge passing plays when having to defend four or more receivers. Dallas certainly has the personnel to hurt this defense. Demarco Murray will look to rush for over 100 yards as he has done in all four starts this season. Don't forget the monster 200+ performance in his first start of his career. Demarco is also a threat as a receiver and how he fell to the 3rd round of this past draft I will never know. The Cowboys are happy to have this rising star! Dallas is ranked No. 3 in Special Teams play while the Redskins check in at No. 25. If the game is close this could be the deciding factor. Keep an eye on average field position in this game. Dallas has been dynamite in this category in all but one game this season.
Here are some key stats from the ATS vault. The Cowboys are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games in November. The Redskins are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games in Week 11. The Over is 18-5 in Cowboys last 23 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.
Jeff's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Washington Redskins +9 & Over 41.
Ignore all stats, systems, and trends when Dallas plays Washingtion in the NFL. Looks like an easy Cowboys win on paper but when these bitter NFC rivals meet it's wise to take the Underdog. I think the Cowboys will win, but not by more than 7 points. This game will be like the Redskins Superbowl if you will. Lean to Washington and over!
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