Denver Broncos (3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-4 SU, 5-3 ATS), Week 10, NFL, Arrowhead Stadium, (Natural Grass) Kansas City Missouri, Sunday, November 10th, 2011, 1:00 PM Eastern TV: CBS
By Jeff Hochman, Pro Handicapper, JH-Sportsline
Point Spread: Den +3/KC -3
Over/Under Total: 41.5
Two teams heading in opposite directions meet in this week 10 match-up when the Denver Broncos invade Arrowhead to play division rival Kansas City. The Broncos are 2-3 SU in their last five games while Kansas City is 4-1 SU. However, the Broncos are coming off a win while the Chiefs are off that one loss in its past five.
Denver defeated Oakland 38-24, as 7-point road underdogs this past Sunday. They won despite getting out-gained by 5 yards. Tim Tebow threw two touchdown passes and ran for 117 yards, Willis McGahee added 163 yards rushing and two end-zone finders in the big upset victory. Denver was dismantled 45-10 by Detroit two weeks ago and some of the Detroit Lions were questioning Tebow's ability to succeed in the NFL. Although he doesn't have all the attributes you want to see in a QB, he is 2-1 as a starter.
KC is coming off a 31-3 debacle vs. Miami, as 4-point home chalk. The Dolphins played like a desperate team looking to win their first game of the season. Matt Moore threw for 244 yards and three touchdowns, the first three-touchdown performance by a Miami quarterback since Chad Pennington back in 2008. Reggie Bush ran for 92 yards, and tight end Anthony Fasano hauled in two touchdown passes in the first half. The Chiefs defense will be looking to bounce back against Tim Tebow, who is completing just 46.39% of his passes.
These two teams know each other well of course being in the same division guarantees at least two meetings every season. The Chiefs are 6-4 SU and 5-5 ATS in the last ten head-to-head meetings. Last season each team won at home, but Denver covered in both games.
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Both teams have major issues across the board as both teams allow more points than they score. Also, both teams are just 2-6 ITS (in the stats) this season. The Chiefs have been winning games with smoke and mirrors of late. Both teams like to run the ball a lot so the run defenses will be the key. Did you know the Broncos only allow 85.8 rushing yards per game on the road? I would expect each team to load up in the box and make the other QB beat them through the air. In that case I will take Matt Cassell and the Chiefs passing game. Matt is completing 61% of his passes and has thrown for 1,620 yards. Tim Tebow has never played at Arrowhead and that is one tough place to play QB as a rookie.
This game is much more important for the home team to win. It may be the last time the Chiefs are favored to win for quite some time. The next five teams on their schedule all have winning records. Three of them are current division leaders while another one is just a half game out of first place. Also, the Chiefs need a victory not just to rebound from their embarrassing loss to Miami but also to give them a bit of momentum going into the toughest part of the schedule.
The Denver Broncos are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS win. The Kansas City Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points. The Broncos are 15-25 SU in their last 40 games.
Jeff's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: 5* Kansas City Chiefs -3.
Look for this line to creep up by game day. First start ever for rookie QB Tim Tebow at Arrowhead, one of the most difficult venues for opposing QB's. Even the veteran signal callers struggle there, especially in November. The Chiefs are looking to bounce back at home off a blowout home loss. This is a very good role for them and they will be focused. The Broncos offense is very predictable and the Chiefs will be able to stop them enough to win this game by at least 6 points. This is my Predictem.com 5* Game of the Year!
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