Denver Broncos (3-8 SU, 3-8 ATS) at Kansas City Chiefs (7-4 SU, 7-4 ATS), Week 13, NFL, Arrowhead Stadium, (Natural Grass) Kansas City Missouri, Sunday, December 5th, 2010, 1:00 PM Eastern TV: CBS
By Jeff Hochman of JHSportsline.com
Betting Odds: Den +9.5/KC -9.5
Over/Under Total: 48.5
Two teams heading in completely opposite directions meet in this week thirteen match-up when the Denver Broncos invade Arrowhead to play division rival Kansas City Chiefs. The Broncos have lost two straight and six of their last seven, while the Chiefs are have won two in a row and four of their last six. The betting line opened at -7 and major money is being placed on the home team. The line could go even higher!
Denver lost 36-33 to the Rams this past Sunday, as 3-point home favorites. The losses are beginning to mount for this team. The Broncos' are on a 5-16 slide, which is their worst 21-game stretch in four decades. The defense needs to play better fast or it will be another long day for all fans in Denver. Sam Bradford threw for 308 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions. The last rookie to put up that line in a game was Marc Bulger in 2002 for the Rams. Kyle Orton had another big game passing for 347 yards and three touchdowns. Most of his numbers came when the team was down by a wide margin.
The Kansas City Chiefs destroyed the Seahawks 42-24, as 1-point road favorites. They out-gained Seattle by a whopping 215 yards. Matt Cassel tied his career high with four touchdown passes, three of them to Dwayne Bowe, and the Chiefs stayed on top of the AFC West as their impressive season continues. Jamaal Charles ran for 173 yards on 22 carries, topping 1,000 yards for the season, and added a 3-yard touchdown run on the first play of the fourth quarter that gave the Chiefs a 28-17 lead. Thomas Jones added 68 yards for the league's best rushing attack.
This is a big game revenge game for the home team. Denver will come limping into Arrowhead Stadium for the rematch. The last time these two teams met, Denver won going away by a score of 49-29 as 1-point home underdogs. The Broncos were coming off their BYE week, and were very fresh and ready for whatever the Chiefs threw at them. Look for this game to be much different as the Chiefs want payback.
Kansas City is averaging 202 rushing yards at home, while the Broncos are ranked dead last (160.5) at defending the run when playing on the road. Matt Cassel should have a lot of confidence going into this game, and he really looks comfortable running the offense. He has been on fire of late, as Cassel has thrown for a combined 895 yards and 10 touchdowns over his last three games. Most of those yards and touchdowns went to red-hot wide-out Dwayne Bowe, as he is enjoying a Pro Bowl season with 885 yards and 14 scores to go along with a seven game streak of scoring at least one touchdown. He has arrived!
The Broncos' offense is one of the better units in the league, as they average 367 total yards a game to go along with 288 pass yards, which put them at 8th and 4th in the NFL, respectively. The Chiefs' secondary will be tested in this game, but I think having played them already will be beneficial.
The Home team in this series is 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 head-to-head meetings. The Over is 8-1 in the last nine meetings in Kansas City.
Jeff's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Denver Broncos +9.5.
The Chiefs will bust out to an early lead only to have the Broncos score a late TD for the backdoor cover. These division games tend to play closer than you would think. The public is pounding the Chiefs so wait for the line to hit 10!
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