Denver Broncos (9-8 SU, 8-8-1 ATS) at New England Patriots (13-3 SU, 9-7 ATS)
Saturday January 14th, 2012. 8:00PM EST, AFC Divisional Playoffs Week
Gillette Stadium Foxboro, M.A.
By Jay Horne, NFL Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Den +13.5/NE -13.5
Over/Under Total: 51
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The Tim Tebow magic struck again last Sunday when the Denver Broncos shocked the football world with a 29-23 upset over the Pittsburgh Steelers. Tebow connected with WR Demaryius Thomas for an 80 yard touchdown pass on the first play of overtime to put a stamp mark on the stunning upset and send the Broncos into the 2nd round of the playoffs. Now this week the Broncos will be looking to score another huge upset victory when they travel to Foxboro to take on the number 1 seeded New England Patriots.
The Pats recently dominated the Broncos back in week 15 by a score of 41-23 and they will enter this week as sizeable 13.5 point favorites yet again. However, the Broncos have thrived in the underdog scenario all season especially when their backs have been against the wall. While it is definitely hard to bet against the Patriots in this game, it may be even harder to bet against the Broncos as they have covered 5 of their last 6 games ATS as underdogs. Of course, Denver will be looking to do more than just cover the spread as they will be seeking another monumental victory in hopes to earn a trip to the AFC Championship Game. The question the world will be asking again this Sunday is the same question that has been asked several times this season. "Can Tebow do it again?"
In last Sunday's win against the Steelers, Tebow completed 10 of 21 passing for 316 yards with 2 scores and 0 picks. Each Tebow completion averaged a whopping 31 yards and those big plays really propelled the Denver offense. The Broncos are a better suited rushing offense with the legs of Tebow and running back Willis McGahee. However anytime Tebow can make those big throws down the field, it really adds the "explosive" factor to the Denver offense. In regards to the ground game, McGahee eclipsed the 1,200 yard rushing mark in last week's victory over the Steelers despite being held to just 61 rushing yards total by that strong Pittsburgh defense.
This week I expect Denver to continue to focus on their ground attack against a Patriots rush defense that has given up 117 yard per game on average. The more success the Broncos have running the football should equal the more opportunities that Tebow will have in play-action passing type scenarios. Still even if Tebow does have another solid performance, will the Broncos offense really be able to outscore the New England offense?
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The Patriots closed out the season by winning 8 straight games and the offense was simply unstoppable over the latter part of the year. In fact, the Patriots averaged nearly 38 points per game over those final 8 games and QB Tom Brady was absolutely sensational. Brady threw for 19 touchdowns and just 2 picks during that hot streak while averaging well over 300 yards per game. In week 15, Brady smoked this same Denver defense for 320 passing yards with 2 touchdowns in route to a big victory. Wide receiver Wes Welker and TE Rob Gronkowski have combined for the most yards by any two teammates in the league this season with just under 3,000 receiving yards.
Obviously, the Patriots present tremendous challenges for any defense they face. The question this week is will the Broncos secondary find a way to slow down this stout Patriots offense when they meet for the 2nd time this season? Denver's defensive line put a lot of pressure on QB Ben Roethlisberger last week which really helped their pass defense. If they can get that type of pressure on Brady again this week, it will definitely help their cause again. As we all know, the Broncos offense does not score a ton of points. Therefore if the Broncos are going to truly contend for the victory, the defense will have to be superb.
Jay's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I think the over 51 is a sure play. Both offenses are playing very well and understand what they need to do this Saturday to score points. New England has reached the over in their last 6 games while Denver has reached the over in 4 of the last 6. If the Broncos offense has any type of similar performance like they did against the Steelers, the over should be a really strong play.
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