Denver Broncos (2-5 SU, 2-5 ATS) vs. Oakland Raiders (4-3 SU, 5-2 ATS), 4:05 p.m. EST, NFL Week 9, Sunday, November 6, 2011, Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum, Oakland, California, TV: CBS
by Scotty L, NFL Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Den +8.5/Oak -8.5
Over/Under Total: 45
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The Denver Broncos come to the Oakland to take on their longtime division rivals--the Raiders Oakland has shown promise this season, but last week’s bye came just in time. Following the death of longtime owner Al Davis, they scored an inspirational win at Houston before coming home to beat the Browns. A 28-0 loss at home against Kansas City the following week saw the Raiders deflated. Denver has their own problems, especially after Sunday’s horrific 45-10 home loss to the Lions. Maybe a return to divisional play will get them back on the right track.
After losing their starting QB, a letdown against the Chiefs was expected. Kyle Boller and newly-acquired Carson Palmer combined for 6 interceptions and zero touchdowns. Opinions varied on whether Palmer would be an improvement over the injured Jason Campbell. Having worked with Head coach Hue Jackson at USC, the learning curve figured to not be so steep. On Sunday, however, Palmer’s rust and lack of comfort was evident. Maybe the bye-week will help.
The Raiders are at a crucial crux after a promising start. A loss puts them at 5-4, far from dire, but on the fridge when a special season seemed within reach a few weeks ago. Coming off a rest and a loss, this should be an irritated team ready to play on Sunday. If they’re going to be a contender, they will need to beat teams like the Broncos at home when in a bit of a pinch. Star RB Darren McFadden is ailing and questionable with a foot injury after barely playing against the Chiefs and a new QB is getting worked into the system, but now is not a time to take a step backwards. It’s an important time for Oakland.
Denver was hoping to get a lift with new starting QB Tim Tebow. Against the Vikings 2 games ago, Tebow came through with a pair of late touchdowns for a come from behind win, but on Sunday he was not effective. Certainly, Tebow alone did not solely contribute to a 45-10 home hammering, but he didn’t get anything meaningful done until long after the game’s outcome was in question. While some may have felt confident that a Lions team coming off a pair of consecutive losses would beat the Broncos, few could have suspected such a rout.
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Until facing Detroit, only the Packers had really had their way with the Broncos. 5 of their 7 games have been decided by 5 points or less. That suggests that for all of Denver’s liabilities, only the elite teams are capable of embarrassing them. In week one, a mere field goal separated these teams, so one shouldn’t be so quick to assume that Denver is out of their element in this matchup.
Denver ran for almost 200 yards against the Lions, but with only a garbage-time touchdown to show for it, it doesn’t count for a whole lot. Maybe against a sometimes-leaky Oakland “D,” the Broncos can create more continuity and put some better drives together. Denver is not a very good football team, but like many sub-.500 teams, they have the ability to deliver 60 minutes of solid football from time to time. Say what you will about Tebow, but he is a bit of an X-factor who might be off one week and on the next. The Raiders haven’t always been consistent this year, especially defensively, so who knows?
Scotty L’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Divisional games like this can be closer than the teams’ respective capabilities would suggest. It happens all the time. It just seems that Denver is catching Oakland at the wrong time. Not all teams this season have come back stronger off a bye-week, but with McFadden hurt and Palmer now in the fold, it came at the right time.
Denver losing so badly at home to Detroit was a bad sign. It doesn’t bode well for this week’s challenge--facing an edgy Raiders team looking to keep a hopeful campaign moving in a positive direction. Look for Oakland to get back on the right track with a nice win at home. Take the Oakland Raiders minus 8.5 points.
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