Denver Broncos (5-5 SU, 5-5 ATS) vs. San Diego Chargers (4-6 SU, 2-8 ATS), 4:15 p.m. EST, NFL Week 12, Sunday, November 27, 2011, Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, California, TV: CBS
by Scotty L, Pro Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Den +6.5/SD -6.5
Over/Under Total: 43.5
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The Denver Broncos travel to San Diego to take on the Chargers on Sunday afternoon. At 5-5 and 4-6, respectively, the Broncos and Chargers might not strike observers as playoff contenders. But with the AFC West led by the Raiders, at only 6-4, the division title is still up for grabs. The winner of this game isn’t in such a bad position.
The Chargers, however, are reeling badly--in the midst of a truly horrific 5-game losing streak following a 4-1 start to the season. Sunday’s game in Chicago was a microcosm of what plagues this team. Talent-wise, they matched up well with the Bears and there were times where they looked like they might take over the game. But then the same issues reared their head once again.
Special teams began allowing big returns. Turnovers killed promising drives. 4-yard routes were called on third-and eights. Their defense would evaporate on third down. And before you knew it, the Chargers had taken another loss. Even a good game from Rivers was rendered moot in the face of player miscues and bad coaching.
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QB Philip Rivers could be seen bickering on the sidelines with Norv Turner and others. It’s hard to blame him, but that type of infighting doesn’t bode well to a possible second-half resurrection. It was still frustrating to watch Turner’s play-calling fall so flat. The last straw came late, when Turner called a time-out late to ponder whether he wanted to throw a flag for a review. He did, it was denied, and he lost both time-outs. Why not just throw the flag to begin with? One could tell by the look on his face that he knew he had messed up. You can sense him losing the team, which has palpably soured on him and his style.
On the other end of the spectrum is the Denver Broncos, now cooking after a horrible start to the season, buoyed by the play of QB Tim Tebow. In his 5 starts, he is only 52-115 for 630 yards, but Tebow’s worth goes beyond stats. Taking the Broncos to a 4-1 record in 5 starts is what speaks loudest, as does his clutch style of play. Watching him explode for a 20-yard touchdown run late in the 4th quarter on Sunday to beat the Jets was electrifying.
In Denver’s four wins during this streak, the “D” has allowed 16.5 points. Tebow has utilized the running game, with Lance Ball and Willis McGahee coming through with big games here and there. Tebow’s rushing ability also keeps opposing defenses on their toes. WR Eric Decker has touchdown catches in 34 receptions. Unlike the Chargers, this team plays better than what the stats would indicate.
The Chargers have been the best team in the NFL in the second-half during Rivers’ tenure. So one shouldn’t be taken aback if San Diego happens to find another gear. Then again, how long do we judge the Chargers by their potential when they never live up to it? It stands to reason that they can turn it loose. Their backs are against the wall and the Chargers typically re-instill hope after it’s all lost. But with countless injuries, no wind in their sails, and a bad feeling in the locker-room, it will be awfully tough.
The Chargers are an absolutely infuriating team to bet on this year. The anguish goes beyond their 2-8 ATS record, being that looked like they could cover most of those games. Against Chicago, a couple drives were ended by turnovers. Chicago converted 7 consecutive 3rd-down attempts late. Their running game becomes increasingly unimaginative when it matters most. A total lack of clutch has really hurt this year.
Scotty L’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: The Chargers could lose this game and let their fans off the hook, but that’s not their style. They usually get close enough to get fans into it, only to fall apart when it’s all on the line. In order to do that, they win need to begin actually winning games. And with the 6.5 point-spread, it’s clear that the guys in Vegas still think the good version of the Chargers will resurface. But worth noting is that they’ve only won by that total or more twice in the entire season. The Chargers can easily win this game, but look for the Broncos to keep it close. Take the Denver Broncos plus 6.5 points.
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