San Diego Chargers (10-7 SU, 10-6-1 ATS) vs. Denver Broncos (13-3 SU, 10-5-1 ATS)
Date and Time: Sunday, January 12, 4:40pm
Where: Sports Authority Field at Mile High - Denver, CO
by Bob, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: SD +10/DEN -10
Over/Under Total: 54.5
I told you guys that the San Diego Chargers were on a mission and would cover against the Bengals. However, never did I imagine they would do it in such impressive fashion. Now don't get me wrong, Andy Dalton spotted them a few too, but the Chargers got the job done. Now they sit one win away from the AFC Title game but things will not be easy. Peyton Manning on the Denver Broncos will be waiting at home well rested after earning the AFCs top seed and home field advantage. This will be third meeting among these division rivals, and they split the season series 1-1. Denver went into San Diego in early November and won the game 28-20, but then just a few weeks later, the Chargers went into Mile High in the prime time night game and not only covered the 13.5 they were underdogs by, but they pretty much dismantled the Broncos in all phases of the game, winning 27-20. The stakes are much higher now though. You win, you advance one inch closer to the Super Bowl...You lose, and you start preparing for the NFL Draft. This game many feel is just a formality for Denver seeing as how they are favored by 10 points and the total is set at 54.5. It appears that Vegas wants you to assume the Broncos win this game about 38-20. Will they be rusty from the bye week, or will they be energized and ready to accomplish their goal that was put in place the day they signed Mr. Manning?
San Diego has got hot. They got into the post season by the skin of their teeth, but so far have made the most of the opportunity presented. San Diego has always been a thorn in the side of Peyton Manning, and that goes back even to his Indianapolis days. Something about the Chargers just makes Manning not look his best. San Diego will come in with the 4th best passing team in all of the NFL, and they also rank in the top 15 in rushing gaining over 120 a game. The weakness for this team though is the one weakness you do not want once Peyton Manning gets rolling...a bad pass defense. San Diego is ranked in the bottom third of the NFL in passing defense allowing teams to throw for nearly 260 yards per game. If this remains the same, Manning may make very light work of them. The key is simple if the Chargers plan on winning or at least covering the 10 points: Pressure Peyton. If some of the heat can be taken off the San Diego DBs, and force Manning to make some ill advised throws, this could be an interesting matchup. If not, well, the Chargers don't wanna see what could become of that.
The Denver Broncos in my opinion are the only team in the league that needs to win NOW. Peyton is not getting any younger, and if they are going to hoist that silver football at the end of the season, they need to take advantage of what they have. Home field advantage, a weaker Patriots team than normal, and a good playoff draw should play into the favor of the Broncos. Denver comes into this AFC battle boasting the NFL's top passing attack, along with a top ten run defense. Them, along with the Seattle Seahawks in my opinion are the two most well balanced teams in all of the league. The key to this game for Denver is to just play Denver Broncos football. Hard nosed defense, up tempo fast attacking offense, and do not make mistakes and this game could be over heading into the 4th quarter.
Bob's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: After seeing the last meeting between these two teams, I am shocked the line is at 10 points. I would assume 6.5 or 7, but many are writing the last game off as Denver just going through the motions knowing that they had already wrapped up home field, or at least was close to it. I am not so sure that was the case but whatever. Anyhow, like I said, the line sits at 10 points in favor of Denver and the early bettors appear to think that San Diego is the play here. After how they beat down the Bengals this past week, and how they looked against Denver a few weeks ago, I can see why they would lean that way. This is tough for me because I can honestly see this game going either way. If Denver wins this game 45-13 I wouldn't be shocked, and if San Diego wins the game 17-13, again, I wouldn't be shocked at all. Both teams have very similar records against the spread, but obviously on paper, Denver is the better team. I have this strange feeling that Manning's playoff woes continue. Lets not forget that Tim Tebow has more playoff wins in Denver than Peyton Manning does. Not saying Manning isn't one of the greatest, because he is, but be honest...in the post season, Manning is just another "good" QB. I am going against all I think I know and I am going to ride with the early leaners and take San Diego in this game to cover. PICK: SAN DIEGO +10.
Editor's Picks - Each week our in house pro's tackle the week's card and make predictions on the week's games ATS! Best bets, top plays, premium selections, etc. FREE!
Expert NFL Picks - Free premium plays from the "real" expert football handicappers from around the web. Don't fall for second rate picks from ESPN, the NFL Network, Hank Goldberg or the screaming touts on TV.
Underdog of the Week Pick - We forecast the loudest barking dog of the week. Expect a 60% winning percentage with these plays.
Favorite of the Week Play - We examine "the chalk" and determine the safest bet in which who you should lay the points with. Forecasting winning favorites long term isn't easy, but we've had some pretty good luck with it over the years.
Line Movement Plays - We report all the major line moves from the gridiron and forecast whether it's public money or sharp action causing the move. Who will cover the spread this week? Our line move plays!
NFL Consensus Picks - See what the general public is betting on. We use this info to fade the public to the tune of big profits over the course of the season.
Bookies Picks - Each week, we'll post which side the bookies are on. Please note: These are not OUR picks. We're simply reporting the teams the bookies need to cover the spread in order for them to win. Games receiving equal action on both sides will not be factored into these records.
Office Pool Picks - You asked for it and you got it! Each week, we'll post our predictions to win each game straight up so that you can RULE your pick'em league!
NFL Trends - Don't ever let anybody tell you that the trend is your friend. These picks make great fades which is exactly what we do with them.
NFL Computer Picks - We enter the statistics into the database and the computer crunches the numbers and gives final score predictions. These should be used for entertainment only!
Monday Night Football Picks - The ultimate bailout play. Our MNF picks are golden and have hit 62% or better 3 out of the past 4 years. (Last season was a disaster!) Did we mention that their FREE?
2016 NFL Predictions - Badger breaks down each division and gives his picks on which teams he thinks will win the AFC and NFC Conferneces (plus Super Bowl winner prediction).
Super Bowl Picks - Everybody here in the Predictem office takes their best preseason shot at predicting the winner Superbowl 50. Pride is on the line here! Oh, and LOOT too!
5Dimes - Bet your NFL football picks at -105 odds every day of the week! 15 team parlays! 20 point teasers! Pleasers and huge point buying opportunities as well!
Bovada - Tired of deposit hassles? Bet on football using your credit card at a sportsbook where your Visa CAN and WILL work for deposits! Offers a 50% sign-up bonus up to $250 FREE!
MyBookie - Credit cards work GREAT here! Get a massive 50% bonus up to $1000 in free cash!
Bookmaker - Watch the game for a bit THEN make a wager! Yes! You can jump in after the action has started using their awesome live betting feature! Get a massive 50% bonus up to $300 in FREE bonus cash OR take advantage of their enormous 15% bonus up to $2500 in free cash! The best sportsbook for highrollers!
Super Bowl Betting - We explain all the different types of wagers you can making including point spread bets, totals, moneylines and prop bets. No need to go to Vegas! You can bet the big game online!
Weekly Fantasy Football - If you drafted a crappy team or the injury bug has bit you and wrecked your season, we've got something really cool to turn you on to that will change the way you play fantasy sports forever!
Famous Football Quotes - From the inspirational to the greatest touchdown calls of all time. We've got them!
Pro Football Hall of Fame - A full list of NFL players who have been inducted into the NFL HOF.
The Spread - Offers free NFL football predictions, matchups, stats including both offensive and defensive and more!
Fantasy Football Sites - Get recommendations on where to find weekly updated player news, depth charts and legit websites that offer the best stat and record tracking for your fantasy football league.