Denver Broncos (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS) at Tennessee Titans (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS), Week 3--NFL Football, LP Field (Tifsport Bermuda Sod), Nashville Tennessee, Sunday, September 25th, 2011--- 1:00 PM Eastern, CBS Network
by Jeff Hochman, Professional NFL Handicapper, JH-Sportsline
Point Spread: Den +7/Ten -7
Over/Under Total: 42
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The Denver Broncos travel Southeast to play the Tennessee Titans in this week three contest. One of these teams will be sitting pretty at 2-1 while the other team will have some work to do at 1-2.
Kyle Orton threw two touchdown passes to Eric Decker, who had nine receptions for 113 yards in his first career start. Willis McGahee ran for 101 yards and a touchdown on 28 carries in his heaviest workload in three years. Denver failed to cover the 3.5-point spread in the 24-22 home victory. The injury bug has hit this team hard. Denver has eight key players that are either Out or listed as questionable.
The banged-up Broncos already were without Pro Bowler Brandon Lloyd, who didn't suit up against the Bengals because of a groin injury. That left the team with only three healthy receivers before Royal's injury. Denver also lost tight end Julius Thomas to an ankle injury in the first half. So thin were the Broncos at wide-out that third-string quarterback Tim Tebow lined up as a wide receiver for several plays.
Tennessee is coming off that big upset win as 5.5- point underdogs. Matt Hasselbeck threw for 358 yards and one touchdown in the convincing, 26-13 victory over the Baltimore Ravens last Sunday. Hasselbeck completed 30-of-42 passes against one interception. Kenny Britt had nine receptions for 135 yards and a score for the Titans, who secured Mike Munchak's first win as an NFL head coach. The defense came to play holding the Ravens to just 229 yards of total offense, compared to 432 for Tennessee.
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The Broncos have held its foes to 84.5 yards rushing per game through the first two weeks, but they will be facing their toughest challenge so far. Chris Johnson has been the biggest workhorse throughout his entire career. His slow start so far this season is a direct result of his extended holdout. Johnson is the team's best offensive player, and the Titans figure to keep riding him early which should help the play-action passes in the second half. Tennessee has been even better at stopping the run as they have held their opponents to just 58.5 yards rushing per game. This game could be a battle of the passing games. Denver has been pretty good so far against the pass (229.5) while Tennessee has not (303.5).
These two teams last met on October 3rd of last season. Denver won 26-20 as 6-point road dogs. The time before that was on November 19th, 2007. The game was won by the Broncos 34-20, as 1-point home favorites. Denver has won and covered three straight vs. Tennessee dating back to 2004.
Champ Bailey has not played this season and remains very questionable with a hamstring injury. His absence allowed Andy Dalton and A.J. Green to light up the Broncos' secondary. If Bailey has to sit again, Kenny Britt and the Titans' passing game will be licking their chops. Bailey's still regarded as one of the top cornerbacks in the NFL, and he's capable of taking one side of the field out of the game. Check his status on Friday.
The Titans will be laying more points than anytime over its last 21 games and they are just 4-9 ATS during that span. In fact, the Titans are just 12-28 ATS as a home favorite since 1993. Ugly!
Jeff's Pick to Cover the Spread: Denver Broncos +7.
The Broncos bring in the better defense and the Titans are coming off a very physical game last week against the Ravens. I see a bit of a letdown in this spot and I love betting NFL underdogs with the better defense. Denver's numerous injuries makes this a light play or no play.
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