Indianapolis Colts (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) vs. Denver Broncos (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS)
NFL Football Week 1
Date and Time: Sunday, September 7, 2014 at 8:30pm EST
Where: Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver, Colorado
by Scotty L, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: IND +7/DEN -7
Over/Under Total: 55
On Sunday Night Football on NBC, the Indianapolis Colts will face the defending conference champion Denver Broncos in an appealing week one matchup. Both teams are building on recent successes, with the Broncos hoping to win it all this season after losing in the Super Bowl. But the Colts have hopes of their own, following a pair of successful campaigns under QB Andrew Luck.
After an 11-5 season, the Colts look to take it to the next level this season and may just prove to be one of the Broncosí toughest roadblocks in the conference. A lot of the future success of Indy will come down to establishing a run-game. They have major issues on the offensive line and at running back, which go hand-in-hand. Trent Richardsonís chances to make it big are winding down and he needs to get off to fast start. Ahmad Bradshaw is a decent alternative, but they need something truly meaningful to manifest in the ground game. Indy is strong at tackle, but part of the reason they had so much trouble running the ball was the lack of good guard play. Maybe rookie Jake Mewhort can help that or it could make the Colts offense somewhat one-dimensional and overly-reliant on the pass.
But that passing game may be really special. T.Y. Hilton is really developing into a major weapon. Returning Reggie Wayne could have some life left in him. Look for ex-Giant Hakeem Nicks and rookie Donte Moncrief to chip in with some big plays. And the TE situation is solid with Coby Fleener a very productive piece to the puzzle.
Defense is going to be an issue with Indy. They had trouble stopping the run last year and canít afford a repeat of that form if they hope to continue rising up the ladder. They added former-Raven Arthur Jones to the line, who with Cody Redding and Ricky Jean Francois, should be a good unit. Losing Robert Mathis for the first four games puts the LB corps under scrutiny, but Bjoern Werner is in his second year and should improve. Adding guys like DíQwell Jackson and Jerrell Freeman should help. The corner play is in good hands with Greg Toler and Vontae Davis, but after losing S Antoine Bethea and with the lack of growth from LaRon Landry, there could be a problem with safety play. How all those issues pan out could determine the Coltsí fate. They made the playoffs in 2012. In 2013, they won a playoff game. Does the trajectory continue to rise or do the Colts take a step back?
You donít get much harder of an entrance exam into the season than the Denver Broncos. The last time they were in a game that mattered, they were getting shellacked by the Seattle Seahawks, but letís not forget what happened before that, when the Broncos were lighting up one team after the next.
Denver hit the ground fast last season. In their first 6 games, only one team came within 15 points of beating the Broncos. But their first loss was to this very Colts team, suggesting Indy matches up pretty well with the Broncos. And they do. But again, the Coltsí ďDĒ is not the same one that faced Denver last year. They will be without Mathis, who sacked Manning twice, while departed Antoine Bethea was also big in that game. And Manning still managed to throw for 386.
Denver lost some key pieces, but could be even better. The line returns top tackle Ryan Clady from injury. WR Emanuel Sanders adds quickness to the receiving package. On ďD,Ē DeMarcus Ware comes in and could be a big factor if he stays healthy. First-round pick Bradley Roby comes in at CB, with a good free agent signing in CB Aqib Talib. Von Miller is back, healthy and with no suspensions looming.
Denver lost some guys like WR Eric Decker, RB Knowshon Moreno, and WR Wes Welker had more concussion issues in the preseason. The defense took some knocks and they lost a key return guy in Trindon Holliday. They will need to establish a good run-game with Montee Ball and Ronnie Hillman. And Miller and Ware need to combine to make for a feared pass-rush.
Denver will be still be really good and even dominant in long stretches this season. They are hungry, with aging Peyton Manning still in peak form, but running out of time. He still has one of the best weapons in the league with Demaryius Thomas, a prolific receiver and one of the best third down guys in the league. Julius Thomas is shaping up into one of the best tight ends in the game. In this offense, look for other guys to step up. Finding aerial weapons wonít be an issue. Theyíre going to need some guys to step up at inside linebacker and for a run-game to mount. Other than that, there isnít that much to worry about. Denver is gonna be all right.
Denver was 6-0 when they came into Indy last season. The Colts may have caught Denver on an off-week. Now in Denver, coming off a crushing loss in the Super Bowl, with time running out to win a Bowl against a team that beat them last season, look for a more-urgent mindset from the Broncos. With less of a pass-rush to worry about, Manning should have little trouble connecting with his vast array of weaponry en route to a competitive, but conclusive win for the Broncos.
Scotty Lís Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Iím betting on the Broncos minus 7 points.
Preseason Picks - Many don't realize that there's good value in NFL preseason picks! They claim "how can you bet on a game when you don't know who is going to play?" Truth be told, many head coaches tell you how much playing time key players will receive prior to the game!
Editor's Picks - Each week our in house pro's tackle the week's card and make predictions on the week's games ATS! Best bets, top plays, premium selections, etc. FREE!
Expert NFL Picks - Free premium plays from the "real" expert football handicappers from around the web. Don't fall for second rate picks from ESPN, the NFL Network, Hank Goldberg or the screaming touts on TV.
Underdog of the Week Pick - We forecast the loudest barking dog of the week. Expect a 60% winning percentage with these plays.
Favorite of the Week Play - We examine "the chalk" and determine the safest bet in which who you should lay the points with. Forecasting winning favorites long term isn't easy, but we've had some pretty good luck with it over the years.
Line Movement Plays - We report all the major line moves from the gridiron and forecast whether it's public money or sharp action causing the move. Who will cover the spread this week? Our line move plays!
NFL Consensus Picks - See what the general public is betting on. We use this info to fade the public to the tune of big profits over the course of the season.
Bookies Picks - Each week, we'll post which side the bookies are on. Please note: These are not OUR picks. We're simply reporting the teams the bookies need to cover the spread in order for them to win. Games receiving equal action on both sides will not be factored into these records.
Office Pool Picks - You asked for it and you got it! Each week, we'll post our predictions to win each game straight up so that you can RULE your pick'em league!
NFL Trends - Don't ever let anybody tell you that the trend is your friend. These picks make great fades which is exactly what we do with them.
NFL Computer Picks - We enter the statistics into the database and the computer crunches the numbers and gives final score predictions. These should be used for entertainment only!
Monday Night Football Picks - The ultimate bailout play. Our MNF picks are golden and have hit 62% or better 3 out of the past 4 years. (Last season was a disaster!) Did we mention that their FREE?
2015 NFL Predictions - Bob makes projections on each team's record (plus Super Bowl winner prediction) and whether or not they'll go over or under their posted season win totals at the sportsbooks.
Super Bowl Picks - Everybody here in the Predictem office takes their best preseason shot at predicting the winner Superbowl 49. Pride is on the line here! Oh, and LOOT too!
5Dimes - Bet your NFL football picks at -105 odds every day of the week! 15 team parlays! 20 point teasers! Pleasers and huge point buying opportunities as well!
Bovada - Tired of deposit hassles? Bet on football using your credit card at a sportsbook where your Visa CAN and WILL work for deposits! Offers a 50% sign-up bonus up to $250 FREE!
MyBookie - Credit cards work GREAT here! Get a massive 50% bonus up to $1000 in free cash!
Bookmaker - Watch the game for a bit THEN make a wager! Yes! You can jump in after the action has started using their awesome live betting feature! Get a massive 50% bonus up to $300 in FREE bonus cash OR take advantage of their enormous 15% bonus up to $2500 in free cash! The best sportsbook for highrollers!
Super Bowl Betting - We explain all the different types of wagers you can making including point spread bets, totals, moneylines and prop bets. No need to go to Vegas! You can bet the big game online!
Weekly Fantasy Football - If you drafted a crappy team or the injury bug has bit you and wrecked your season, we've got something really cool to turn you on to that will change the way you play fantasy sports forever!
Famous Football Quotes - From the inspirational to the greatest touchdown calls of all time. We've got them!
Pro Football Hall of Fame - A full list of NFL players who have been inducted into the NFL HOF.
The Spread - Offers free NFL football predictions, matchups, stats including both offensive and defensive and more!
Fantasy Football Sites - Get recommendations on where to find weekly updated player news, depth charts and legit websites that offer the best stat and record tracking for your fantasy football league.