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Denver Broncos vs. Indianapolis Colts Point Spread - Pick

Denver Broncos (6-0 SU, 3-2-1 ATS) vs. Indianapolis Colts (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS)
NFL Week 7
Date and Time: Sunday, October 20th, 2013, 8:30 pm EST
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Ind.
TV: NBC
by Badger, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com

Point Spread: Den -6.5/IND +6.5
Over/Under Total:55.5

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Peyton Manning returns to state where he spent 13 years and won a Super Bowl, when the undefeated Denver Broncos travel to Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis to take on the Indianapolis Colts and their new face of the franchise Andrew Luck in this week’s Sunday Night Football in America game on NBC.

It what will sure to be talked about over and over until we puke, Manning will be coming back to the town and the team that let him go due to the uncertainty of the health of his neck back in 2011. While some fans will likely be in force in their old No. 18 jerseys on Sunday Night, there’s no denying that the Colts are now Luck’s team and the game goes on in both cities.

Everyone has watched the Broncos and Manning carve up the league so far this season, although they did struggle a little last week in a , 35-19, win over Jacksonville. Maybe it was overlooking, maybe for a day the Jaguars decided not to play like Jags, but whatever the reason you can bet the bankroll that Manning will be amped up for Sunday even if he says it’s just another game.

The Colts will be looking to get back in the win column with a huge upset, trying to rebound from last week’s dismal performance in primetime on Monday Night Football in a, 19-9, dud at San Diego. The Colts receivers had a contagious case of the drops on Monday in the loss, so maybe it’s good that they got it out of their system in order to try and pull off the stunner in primetime on Sunday.

The opening point spread for the game went up on the board with Indianapolis as a full touchdown 7-point favorite, but early betting dropped the number down to minus -6.5 at most sportsbooks even though the public is in love with Manning and the Broncos right now (67% of money on Denver so far).

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The over/under total opened at 56 at most sportsbooks, but it’s already dropped to as low as 55 in some books and as high as 57 in others, depending on how much risk and juice you’re willing to pay to move it up or down.

There will be one interesting development in Sunday’s game, as the Broncos will finally get LB Von Miller back after his six-game suspension. With Miller back and coming off the edge, the Colts will likely try and work the clock with a steady diet of the run game with Trent Richardson and Donald Brown.

Denver and Manning meanwhile will look to continue their torrid pace this season, which they’re currently ranked No. 1 is just about every offensive category imaginable (passing 360 ypg; scoring 44.2 ppg). Nobody has stopped the Broncos yet, and teams haven’t been able to outscore them either, so don’t expect too much from the Colts defense even though they are a much improved unit over last season.

These two teams last met back in 2010 ( a 27-13 win by Indy in Denver), and all told the Colts hold a five-game win streak against the Broncos going back to 2005. But those numbers all happened when Manning was in a Colts uniform, so they’re much less meaningful than most historical numbers in the league.

Something will have to give this week too, since the Broncos are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games, but the Colts are 7-2 ATS in their last nine at home in Lucas Oil Stadium. While Denver has practically gone over the total each week by themselves, this week they could have some help since the over is 4-0 in the last four head-to-head meetings between these two in games played in Indianapolis, and 6-1 when you take it out further and include the last seven games overall.

Badger's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Indy backdoors this game trying to rally late and beat their old teammate. Take Indianapolis and the 6.5 or 7 points if you can get the full touchdown.

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