Denver Broncos (8-4, 8-4 ATS) vs. Indianapolis Colts (12-0, 8-3-1 ATS), Week 14 NFL, Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Sunday, Dec. 13th, 1 PM Eastern, CBS
By Z-Man of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Colts -7/Broncos +7
Over/Under: 44
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The Indianapolis Colts go for a record-setting 22nd consecutive regular-season victory and home-field advantage throughout the AFC side of the playoffs when they host the postseason-minded Denver Broncos Sunday afternoon at the Oil Can.
Most online sportsbooks opened Indy as a favorite of -7 or -7 ½ points, with a total of 44 ½ or 44. Early betting action has leveled the line out at seven almost everywhere, and the total at 44.
The Colts are also listed at right around -320 on most moneylines, with Denver getting upwards of +265 to win outright.
The Broncos got off to that great 6-0 start in their first season under new head coach Josh McDaniels, then lost four straight, and looked as if they were going to pull the same trick they did last year, when they collapsed late and missed the playoffs. But the Broncs seem to have steadied themselves, and are coming off two straight good wins, a 26-6 drubbing of the New York Giants on Thanksgiving night and a 44-13 whipping of the Chiefs in KC Sunday.
So Denver, at 8-4, trails the 9-3 San Diego Chargers by a game in the AFC West, and owns the five slot in the conference standings. If the playoffs started today, the Broncos would play at New England on wild-card weekend.
Indy, meanwhile, after beating the Tennessee Titans soundly last Sunday 27-17, has won its first 12 games of this season for new head coach Jim Caldwell. Combined with the nine straight wins they ended last season with, and the Colts have won 21 regular-season games in a row, tying New England's record-setting run of a couple of seasons ago.
So the Colts, at 12-0, can clinch the best record in the AFC with one more victory.
In his first season in Denver, QB Kyle Orton has run a bit hot & cold. On the whole, the former Purdue Boilermaker has completed 62% of his passes for a little over 2,600 yards, with 14 TDs and seven interceptions, and an 88.2 passing rating.
But in this quarterback match-up, Indy's seriously got the upper hand. This guy Manning for the Colts just picks defenses apart, and if he can keep it up, he might win his fourth league MVP award. So far this season the former Tennessee Vol has hit on 70% of his throws for almost 3,700 yards already, with 25 TDs, 11 INTs and a 101.9 rating.
On the season, Denver is outgaining opponents by a 335-289 YPG margin, and outrushing foes 126-109. Indy is outgaining opponents this year 390-336, but getting outrushed 112-88.
Also, the Broncos rank 14th in the league this season in average time-of-possession at 29:52, while the quick-strike Colts rank 27th at 28:21.
Indy and Denver have played two common opponents so far this season; the Colts rallied (and got help) to beat New England 35-34 and won in Baltimore 17-15, while the Broncos beat the Patriots 20-17 but lost to the Ravens 30-7.
These two teams last met early in the 2007 season, when the Colts bucked the Broncos 38-20 at the Hoosierdome.
Denver is 3-9 on the totals this season, as the Broncos are outscoring opponents on average 20-17. The Colts, meanwhile, are 5-7 on the totals, as they're outscoring opponents 28-17.
Through the first 13 weeks of NFL betting action this season, home teams are 114-76 (60%) straight up but only 88-98 (47%) vs. the pointspreads; favorites are 132-60 SU but 90-98 vs. the numbers (48%); and home favorites are 89-35 outright but 55-65 (46%) ATS.
The Sagarin PURE POINTS ratings at USAToday.com rate the Colts at 29.3, the Broncos at 23.9. Factoring in Sagarin's updated NFL home-field advantage figure of 2.5, and Indy is an eight-point favorite over Denver on the Sagarin line.
Z-Man's Pick: I like the UNDER 44 here!
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