Denver Broncos (8-7) +8, 50 O/U at San Diego Chargers (7-8) -8, 50
O/U, Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, Calif., 8:15 PM Eastern, Sunday, NBC
by Badger of Predictem.com
It’s only fitting that the 2008 NFL regular season, a season of surprises and topsy-turvy turmoil, will have one of its biggest and most important games of the season as its finale, when the Denver Broncos travel to Qualcomm Stadium to face the San Diego Chargers with the AFC West Division title on the line on NBC’s Sunday Night Football in America.
The Broncos could have clinched the AFC West title two weeks ago, but back-to-back losses to Carolina and Buffalo have made Sunday’s game against the rival Chargers their biggest game of the year. Denver will need to find a way to get out of their funk quickly, as last week the Broncos outgained Buffalo by nearly a two-to-one margin (532- to-275) but still lost the game at home, 30-23.
On the other side, the Chargers have played their way back into the title hunt by winning three straight games, including a 41-24 victory on the road in Tampa Bay last Sunday. Quarterback Philip Rivers threw for 287 yards and four touchdowns as the Chargers scored the final 21 points of the game to pull away from the Bucs in the fourth quarter and keep the dream alive (and perhaps save Norv Turner’s job for one more year).
Oddsmakers opened the game with the streaking Chargers as 9-point home favorites, but early action at the window has been all on the Broncos, which has lowered the point spread all the way down to Chargers minus 8-points at most books and even a 7.5 at JustBet Sportsbook. The total opened at 50 and has stayed firm, although there are a few 50.5’s listed at some of the larger offshore sportsbooks. The moneyline lists the Chargers as -350 favorites, with the Broncos as a valuable +320 underdog.
It’s actually justice that the Chargers get a chance to play for the AFC West title, because if you recall they got screwed out of a victory over the Broncos the first time these two teams met all the way back on September 14th. Denver quarterback Jay Cutler fumbled the ball on the Charger 5-yard line as he was attempting to pass, and it was recovered by the Chargers for what was thought to be a game- saving turnover, but the officials had blown the whistle, stopping play and therefore negating the fumble. Cutler threw a touchdown on the very next play and the Broncos slipped away with a controversial 39-38 victory in Denver.
Offensively both teams rely heavily on the passing game to set up the run.
Denver and Cutler are No. 2 in the NFL in total offense (395.9 ypg) with the 3rd-ranked passing offense at just over 275 yards per game (277.9). The Broncos have relied so heavily on the passing game because of the rash of injuries they’ve had at running back, as they are now down to their fifth-string back in P.J. Pope and the running game has suffered (118 ypg – 12th).
San Diego has needed to throw more often than usual because of the sharp decline in production of star running back LaDainian Tomlinson. Tomlinson has had an off year and the Chargers are only averaging 95.8 yards per game (27th), which is why Rivers has played pitch-n- catch a lot to the tune of 243.4 yards per game (7th). The Chargers also are 7th in the league in scoring at 25.8 points per game.
Defensively is where this game will turn.
Denver has been suspect all year on defense and is 28th overall allowing 367.2 yards per game. The Chargers haven’t been all that much better either, as they are just 25th in the league overall (346.2 ypg) and surprising 31st versus the pass (242.8 ypg), which you know has Cutler, Shanahan and the rest of the Broncos offense salivating at the mouth.
As mentioned, the Broncos won the earlier meeting this year … or should we say were given the win earlier this year. That win snapped the Chargers four-game winning streak over the Broncos in the head-to- head series the past two seasons, including last year’s 23-3 win at Qualcomm. But overall the series has been an even 5-5 over the last 10 meetings. Ironically, the game earlier this year ended in a push (Denver -1), the fourth push in the series over the last 10 games (SD holds a 4-2-4 ATS edge).
Neither team has been good to bettors this season, as the Broncos have killed bankrolls to the tune of a 4-10-1 ATS record, while the Chargers have been an equally disappointing 6-8-1 ATS. Both teams are dead even versus the total as well, as both sport 7-7-1 records on over/unders.
Other betting trends to note in this contest are: the Chargers have closed out the season well the past few years, as they are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games in December; the Chargers have not played well as a favorite this year, going just 1-5 ATS in their last six as the fave; the Broncos have struggled against their rivals as they are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games versus teams from their AFC West Division.
Badger’s Pick: The public has been all over the Broncos in this one, and with an attractive +320 on the moneyline it’s hard not to take a flyer on them with those odds. But either way, I don’t expect a whole lot of defense in this game, so I’m taking the safe bet of over 50. Throw some lunch money on the Broncos moneyline, then watch footballs fly and points roll up on the scoreboard. Take the over of 50.
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