Note: If you're looking for the 2013 Week 15 MNF game between these teams, please go here: Baltimore Ravens vs. Detroit Lions Pick.
Detroit Lions (2-10 3-8-1 ATS) vs. Baltimore Ravens (6-6 6-6 ATS) M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, Week 14 NFL, MD 1 PM EST Sunday December 13, 2009 on FOX
by Jason Green at Predictem.com
Point Spread: Lions +13.5 / Ravens -13.5
Bet the Ravens at +7.5 by locking them into a 21 point football teaser at Wagerweb.
This Sunday afternoon the Baltimore Ravens host the Detroit Lions. After Monday night's loss to the Packers the Ravens are now 6-6 and they have to finish well just to snag a Wild Card berth. Winning the AFC North is very unlikely, as they trail Cincinnati by 3 games in the division and they were swept by the Bengals this season. The schedule is on the side of the Ravens, as they do not play one team in their last 4 games that currently has a winning record, but their 2nd to last game is at Pittsburgh.
The Lions are headed towards another high draft pick and they have lost 2 in a row and have yet to win on the road this season (0-6). They are weak on both sides of the ball. Matthew Stafford was injured again in the Lions last loss so there is a good chance that he will not play in this game.
OK, to paint you a picture about this game let's look at the stats: The Ravens offense is averaging more per game averages of total yards, passing yards, and rushing and their defense is giving up fewer per game averages of total yards, passing yards, and rushing yards. Add to the fact the game is in Baltimore and the Lions do not have their starting QB, so this game may get ugly, which the Lions are getting all too used to.
Last week the Lions lost to the Cincinnati Bengals 23-13 and the Baltimore Ravens lost to the Green Bay Packers 27-14.
In the Lions loss to the Lions the game was not really that close, as the Bengals had more passing and rushing yards in the game, but Cincinnati had 3 turnovers and they were penalized 9 times for 75 yards. Stafford had another bad game with 2 INT's and only 1 TD with a miserable QB rating of only 41. The Bengals totally dominated the game in terms of time of possession (38:48 to 21:12). The Lions were underdogs by 13.5 points so they did cover the spread and the posted total of 42 was not surpassed.
In their loss to the Packers on Monday night both teams played a sloppy game, but especially the Ravens who committed 4 turnovers and were penalized 12 times for a whopping 135 yards. The Ravens did score 2 TD's in the 2nd quarter, but they were blanked in the other 3 quarters. The Packers had more passing yards, more rushing yards, and dominated the game in terms of time of possession. The Ravens only had 185 total yards in the game and they only averaged 3.1 yards per rushing attempt. The Ravens were underdogs by 3.5 points so they did not cover and the posted total of 43 was not reached.
Ravens' QB Joe Flacco has put up decent numbers this season and he should pad those numbers in this game playing against a Lions' secondary that is giving up an average of 274.8 passing yards per game, which is the most in the league.
The Lions have been decent at stopping the run this season, allowing an average of 113.4 rushing yards per game, but they will give up big yards in this game to Ravens' RB Ray Rice who is averaging a legit 4.8 yards per carry.
The Ravens' defense ranks 10th in the league, but they are much better against the run than the pass. That may be a problem if Stafford were playing, but since backup Daunte Culpepper will get the start the Lions will not put up big numbers through the air. This season Culpepper only has a QB rating of 69.6 and has only hit on 56.9% of his passes.
One bright spot for the Lions is stellar WR Calvin Johnson, but he is banged up and who will get him the ball?
The Lions have given up 36 sacks this season so look for the Ravens to take Culpepper down a few times in this game, as the 11-year vet is not a spring chicken any more and not anywhere as nimble as he used to be in the pocket.
The Lions rushing attack, using that term very loosely, is led by RB Kevin Smith, who is only averaging 3.5 yards per carry. The Ravens' D should stuff the run in this game, so do not count on the Lions moving the chains on the ground.
Jason's Pick: The Lions have everything going against them in this game and they are facing a Ravens' team that, pretty much, has to win. Look for the Ravens to come out strong and really take it to the Detroit defense, while the Lions' offense will be held in check in this game. Take the Ravens to cover even though it is a big spread.
Preseason NFL Picks - There's a myth that pre-season NFL betting is a crapshoot. Many times a coach will divulge his gameplan (and stick with it). A handicappers dream!
Editor's Picks - Each week our in house pro's tackle the week's card and make predictions on the week's games ATS! Best bets, top plays, premium selections, etc. FREE!
Expert NFL Picks - Free premium plays from the "real" expert football handicappers from around the web. Don't fall for second rate picks from ESPN, the NFL Network, Hank Goldberg or the screaming touts on TV.
Underdog of the Week Pick - We forecast the loudest barking dog of the week. Expect a 60% winning percentage with these plays.
Favorite of the Week Play - We examine "the chalk" and determine the safest bet in which who you should lay the points with. Forecasting winning favorites long term isn't easy, but we've had some pretty good luck with it over the years.
Line Movement Plays - We report all the major line moves from the gridiron and forecast whether it's public money or sharp action causing the move. Who will cover the spread this week? Our line move plays!
NFL Consensus Picks - See what the general public is betting on. We use this info to fade the public to the tune of big profits over the course of the season.
Bookies Picks - (Coming Soon!) Each week, we'll post which side the bookies are on. Please note: These are not OUR picks. We're simply reporting the teams the bookies need to cover the spread in order for them to win. Games receiving equal action on both sides will not be factored into these records.
Office Pool Picks - (Coming Soon!) You asked for it and you got it! Each week, we'll post our predictions to win each game straight up so that you can RULE your office pool!
NFL Trends - Don't ever let anybody tell you that the trend is your friend. These picks make great fades which is exactly what we do with them.
Monday Night Football Picks - The ultimate bailout play. Our MNF picks are golden and have hit 62% or better 3 out of the past 4 years. (Last season was a disaster!) Did we mention that their FREE?
2014 NFL Predictions - Badger makes projections on each team's record and whether or not they'll go over or under their posted season win totals at the sportsbooks.
Super Bowl Picks - Everybody here in the Predictem office takes their best preseason shot at predicting the winner Superbowl 49. Pride is on the line here! Oh, and LOOT too!
5Dimes - Bet your NFL football picks at -105 odds every day of the week! 15 team parlays! 20 point teasers! Pleasers and huge point buying opportunities as well!
Bovada - Tired of deposit hassles? Bet on football using your credit card at a sportsbook where your Visa CAN and WILL work for deposits! Offers a 50% sign-up bonus up to $250 FREE!
Sportsbook - Deposit $100, make a $100 bet and get a $100 bet FREE! Your credit card WILL work here!
GTBets - You get to select 2 NFL teams and get a FREE half point every time you bet them! Offers a generous 100% bonus on deposits of $100 to $500! One of the best at accepting credit cards for deposits!
Football Bets - We explain all the different types of wagers that you can place on an NFL game and give advice on which ones good and which are sucker bets. We also explore the value of betting at reduce odds.
Super Bowl Betting - We explain all the different types of wagers you can making including point spread bets, totals, moneylines and prop bets. No need to go to Vegas! You can bet the big game online!
Weekly Fantasy Football - If you drafted a crappy team or the injury bug has bit you and wrecked your season, we've got something really cool to turn you on to that will change the way you play fantasy sports forever!
Famous Football Quotes - From the inspirational to the greatest touchdown calls of all time. We've got them!
Pro Football Hall of Fame - A full list of NFL players who have been inducted into the NFL HOF.
The Spread - Offers free NFL football predictions, matchups, stats including both offensive and defensive and more!
Fantasy Football Sites - Get recommendations on where to find weekly updated player news, depth charts and legit websites that offer the best stat and record tracking for your fantasy football league.