Detroit Lions (1-4, 2-3 ATS) vs. Green Bay Packers (2-2, 2-2 ATS), Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Sunday, Oct. 18th, 1 PM Eastern, Fox
By Z-Man of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Lions +13/Packers -13
Over/Under: 48
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Longtime NFL rivals meet for the 158th time when the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers go at it in an NFC North clash Sunday afternoon at Lambeau Field.
Many online sportsbooks opened this game with Green Bay favored by 11 or 11 ½ points over Detroit, with a total of 48. But while the total had held steady in early betting action, as of Tuesday afternoon most had bumped the Packers up to -13 and -13 ½.
Green Bay is also moneylined at right around -750 at most NFL betting outlets, with the Lions getting upwards of +500.
Detroit, as you might have heard, carried a 17-game regular-season losing streak into this year, then opened with a 45-27 loss at New Orleans and a 27-13 home defeat vs. Minnesota. But the Lions finally broke through two weeks ago with a 19-14 win over Washington. Since then Detroit has fallen 48-24 at Chicago and, Sunday afternoon, at home to defending Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh 28-20.
Coming off a 6-10 campaign of a season ago, Green Bay opened this year with a tough 21-15 win over Chicago, then got upset 31-24 at home by Cincinnati. The Packers then won 36-17 at St. Louis, before losing the grudge match vs. Brett Favre at Minnesota 30-23 two Monday nights ago. Green Bay had last week off.
Detroit opened the season with rookie Matt Stafford starting at quarterback. But the #1 overall pick in April's draft suffered a knee injury in the loss vs. the Bears, and missed last week's game vs. Pittsburgh. He's listed as questionable for Sunday's game.
In Stafford's place, veteran Daunte Culpepper hit on 23 of 37 throws last week vs. the Steelers for 282 yards, with one TD pass and one very bad interception. And Culpepper looks like this week's starter at QB for the Lions.
Coming off a very solid first season as a starting NFL quarterback last year, Aaron Rodgers is again putting up good numbers this year. Through four games the former Cal Bear has completed 61% of his throws for an 8.6 YPA average, which is pretty good, six TDs and just one INT, and a 101.1 rating.
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The big problem, though, especially in the losses to the Bengals and Vikings, is keeping enemy linemen off Rodgers. Thanks in part to the absence of LT Chad Clifton, who's missed action with a bad ankle, Rodgers has been sacked a league-leading 20 times this season.
As of Tuesday afternoon, Clifton's status for Sunday's game is uncertain.
Last year Detroit did not outrush a single opponent. This year, the Lions have outgrounded three of their first five foes. Overall, Detroit is getting outrushed by a 113-103 YPG margin so far this season.
The Packers, meanwhile, are getting outgained on the ground by a 112-100 YPG margin this year.
The Lions rank a somewhat surprising 7th in the league in average time-of-possession this season at 31:57, while GB ranks 26th at 27:56.
Green Bay has won six in a row in the series with Detroit. Last year, of course, the Packers swept the two games from the Lions, winning 48-25 in Detroit in week 2 and 31-21 at Lambeau in week 17. GB averaged 466 TYPG and 167 rushing YPG in those two wins, and held the Lions to 145 rushing yards in the two games together. But while the Packers covered the spread as three-point chalk at Ford Field, they could not cover as 11-point faves in the game at Lambeau.
Also, the last four meetings in the series between these two teams have gone over the totals by averaging 59 points.
Detroit may have broken one losing streak with that win over the Redskins, but they're still working on another. The Lions have lost 14 straight games on the road. Last year, Motor City's Kitties went 0-8 straight up but 6-2 against the pointspreads away from. This year they're 0-2 both SU and ATS on the road.
And yet, while going 0-16 last year, Detroit went 6-1 vs. the pointspreads as double-digit underdogs. This year, they're 1-2 ATS when getting 10 or more points.
As the Lions are allowing 32 PPG this year, their totals have gone 3-2. Overall, Detroit games are averaging 53 total points.
Green Bay games are averaging 49 points, as their totals have gone 3-1.
Sagarin's NFL PREDICTOR ratings at USAToday.com ranks the Packers 17th in the league at 22.4, the Lions 24th at 14.2. Add on Sagarin's updated NFL home-field figure of 3.2, and Green Bay is an 11 1/2-point favorite on the Sagarin line.
Z-Man's Pick: I like the Lions to cover the big number.
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