Detroit Lions (5-2 SU, 4-2-1 ATS) at Denver Broncos (2-4 SU, 2-4 ATS), Week 8 NFL, Investco Field at Mile High, (Natural Grass) Denver Colorado, Sunday, October 30th, 4:05 PM Eastern
By Jeff Hochman, NFL Handicapper, JH-Sportsline
Betting Odds: DET -3/Den +3
Over/Under Total: 43.5
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Tim Tebow makes his first career home start when the Denver Broncos host the up-start Detroit Lions. The Lions have lost two straight (both at home) after winning their first 5 games. Last week, they lost to Atlanta 23-16 as 4.5-point home favorites. Two weeks ago, the new and improved 49'ers handed Detroit its first loss of the season. The Lions are just 4-3 ITS (in the stats) this season.
The Broncos won for the first time in the eight games they've played on the Dolphins' field. Miami extended the NFL's longest losing streak to nine games, leaving the status of embattled coach Tony Sparano even more tenuous. Tebow led the comeback with two touchdown passes in the final 2:44 of the fourth quarter to force overtime, and than Prater kicked a long FG to win the game. Denver improved to 2-5 in the stats this season.
The Lions are 3-0 on the road this season and seem to be more focused away from the home fans. Detroit will enter this game with the better offense, defense, and special teams. Detroit is averaging 353 yards of offense good for 27.7 points per game, while Denver puts up 304 yards per game good for 20.5 points per game. On defense, the Lions are holding foes to 334 yards per game good for 19.6 points against. Denver allows 366 yards per game good for 25.8 points against. The Lions are ranked No. 6 on special teams while the Broncos are ranked No. 19.
The home team will be pumped up for Tebow, who they all wanted to stat from day one. His stats don't always look great but he does give the Broncos a fighting chance thanks to his desire and will to win. How they won last week's game I will never know. They looked dead but Tebow magic took over. It will help the Broncos offense that Tebow is such a great runner because the Lions possess one of the best pass rushes in all of football.
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If the Bronocs don't improve its pass rush Matt Stafford will pick them apart. Denver is having trouble at just knocking the opposing QB down and ranked third last in sacks. Calvin Johnson is having a fantastic season with 679 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns while Stafford has thrown for nearly 2,000 yards with 16 touchdowns already. Look for the Lions to use a lot of no huddle offense in the first half as they try to catch the Broncos napping. Denver will also use a lot of no huddle and shotgun formations because that's what Tebow likes to do and is most successful at.
With Denver's win at Miami last week we are getting better line value in this game. Don't forget the Lions lost to San Francisco and Atlanta who are much more talented than this Broncos squad. Tim Tebow is exciting to watch but his accuracy is still below average. The Broncos receiving corps is sub-par now that Brandon Lloyd was shipped to St. Louis. Willis McGahee is the Broncos most reliable running back and he has a broken hand. The Lions defense is fast and the Broncos offense is slow for the most part. Denver's pass rush will take a hit with Elvis Dumervil and Robert Ayers very questionable for this game.
The last time Detroit and Denver played was on November 4th, 2007. The Lions won 44-7 as 3-point home favorites. Patrick Ramsey and Jon Kitna were the starting QB's in that game. Detroit is 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games. The over is 20-7 in Denver's last 27 home games.
Jeff's Pick to Cover the Spread: Detroit Lions -3.
The Lions will be focused as they have lost two home games in a row and now play a road game. The Broncos spent a lot of energy in their comeback win over the Dolphins last week. Take the Lions to bounce back!
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