Detroit Lions (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) vs. Minnesota Vikings (0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS), 1:00 p.m. EST, Week 3 NFL, Sunday, September 25, 2011, Mall of America Field at Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome, Minneapolis, Minn., TV: FOX
by Badger, NFL Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Det -4/Min +4
Over/Under Total: 44.5
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One of the hottest teams in the entire National Football League, the Detroit Lions, will be trying to keep one streak alive and put one streak to bed when they travel to take on the Minnesota Vikings in NFC North action Sunday in the Metrodome.
The Lions will hope to keep their current winning streak alive, a streak that stands at 10 games right now if you count the last four games of last season, the four in the preseason and the two weeks of regular season action thus far. The Lions made it to 10 in a row by absolutely destroying the Kansas City Chiefs in their home opener least week, 48-3, in what turned into the most lopsided regular-season victory in franchise history.
The streak the Lions hope to end is their 13-year losing streak at that god-forsaken hole the Minnesota Vikings call the Metrodome, since the Lions haven’t won on the road in Minneapolis since the 1997 season.
This might be the year to end the losing streak too, because the Vikings can’t seem to pass the ball or hold a lead anymore. Minnesota blew a 17-0 halftime lead against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last Sunday and wound up on the short end of a, 24-20, score for their second blown lead and second straight loss this season.
With these two teams appearing to be heading in opposite directions it’s no surprise that the oddsmakers out in Las Vegas have jumped on the Lions bandwagon, listing Detroit as 4-point favorites on the road. The bettors putting down early money are a little leery of the losing streak though, as the number has moved down to 3.5 at most sportsbooks and even as low as 3-points at a few of the smaller sportsbooks on the Internet.
The over/under total opened at 44.5 and has yet to move in either direction since it’s release late on Sunday night.
The path that these two teams have taken in recent years is exemplified by the offenses that both teams will put on the field in this game. The Lions have struggled no doubt over the last five years, but they’ve built themselves through the draft with young talented players and now it’s beginning to pay off. Meanwhile, the Vikings continue pick up to trot out free agent pickups on the decline of their careers to fill in the holes in the roster, and it’s beginning to look like time is catching up fast.
Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford is playing the way everyone thought he would when he was drafted, throwing for 599 yards with seven touchdowns and a rock-solid 112 QB rating after two games. Stafford is surrounded by young talent like Jahvid Best, Titus Young and Calvin Johnson to form a unit that is clearly on the upswing as they are ranked 8th overall (421 ypg) and 2nd in the NFL in scoring (37.5 ppg) after the first two games of the 2011 campaign.
The Vikings brought in Donovan McNabb in the offseason and after two games, it looks like they made a mistake. McNabb is having a hard time completing passes (only 55.5 percent, and when he does they are simple dump downs (5.93 ypc) or to the wrong team (one TD, one INT), which is causing the Vikings once proud ship on offense to sink like a rock. The Vikings do still have a premiere running back in Adrian Peterson, and he is currently carrying the team on his back (172.5 yards per game rushing – 3rd in NFL), but with McNabb unable to take advantage of single coverage on the outside Peterson will likely break down by midseason.
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The Vikings running game will face a stiff test this week from the Detroit defense, one that is stacked in the front seven and is also allowing just 11.5 points per game. The Lions defense held Tampa Bay to 56 yards rushing in the opener, the same Tampa Bay running game that gained 105 yards against the Vikings last week on only a few more carries, so the changing of the guard in the NFC North from the Vikings to the Lions is happening right in front of everyone’s eyes.
These two teams are going in opposite directions so fast that I almost hesitate to bring up recent betting trends between these two because it would be like comparing apples to oranges.
As I mentioned before, the Lions haven’t won in Minnesota in over a decade, but they do know how to beat the Vikings because they did it to close out the 2010 season at home, 20-13. In that game to end last season the Lions held the Vikings to 211 yards of total offense and kept the offense out of the end zone (Jared Allen returned an interception for a touchdown for the Vikings only score of the game), so they know it can be done. Detroit also covered in that game, as (ironically) 3.5-point favorites.
The rest of the listed betting trends will all tell you about how much the Vikings dominated this head-to-head matchup, with Minnesota owning a 7-3-2 ATS advantage in the last 12 games and a strong 4-1-1 ATS advantage at home in the Metrodome.
But there is one trend that you might want to follow, and that would be a play on the under. The under is a perfect 6-0 the last six times these two have played each other, including an 11-5 mark in the last 16 meetings in the Metrodome. The under is also 7-2-1 in the Lions last 10 games versus their rivals in the NFC North.
Badger’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I’m a big fan of the Lions as they are starting to turn the corner, but the 13-year losing streak is a big 300-pound gorilla in the room that scares me away from backing them even though I know they are the better team right now. Detroit will come back down to earth a little this week and the Viking offense will continue to struggle, so I’m going to play it safe and wager on the under of 44.5 in this game. Take the under of 44.5.
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