Atlanta Falcons (8-7, 10-5 ATS) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-12, 6-9 ATS), Week 17, Raymond James Stadium Tampa, Florida Sunday January 3rd, 2010 1:00PM Eastern
By Jay Horne of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Tampa Bay -1 ½
Over/Under: 41½
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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers shocked the NFL world last week rallying from a 17-3 deficit to beat arguably the best team in the NFC in the New Orleans Saints 20-17 in overtime. It was the Buccaneers, who own one of the worse records in the NFC, 2nd straight win equaling their first winning streak since November of 2008. The Buccaneers now have some confidence surrounding their once pitiful offense and look to keep building their momentum heading into 2010 when they will play host to the Atlanta Falcons this Sunday afternoon.
The Atlanta Falcons own the best record at 8-7 of any team not in the playoffs, but unfortunately for Atlanta the NFC playoff picture has already been decided. The Falcons were definitely expected to be in the postseason this year, but a midseason stretch that resulted in 6 of 8 losses led to their demise. However, the Falcons have knocked off two straight wins including a blowout over Buffalo last week 31-3. QB Matt Ryan tossed 3 touchdowns for 250 yards in the victory and the Falcons seek one more final win in the season finale against the Buccaneers this Sunday.
The interesting match-up this Sunday will be the emerging Atlanta defense against an emerging Tampa Bay offense. The Falcons defense has held opponents to just 10 points combined over their last two contests while failing to allow a touchdown in 7 straight quarters. The Buccaneers offense has suddenly become effective as well. Rookie QB Josh Freeman has struggled with interception problems, but has put together two solid performances where he has completed nearly 65% during those games. Freeman threw for 271 yards against the Saints last week. Also, running back Cadillac Williams has proved that his number of touches must increase. Williams has averaged over 5.5 yards per carry over the past two games and ran for 129 yards on the ground against the Saints. With both sides of the ball for each team playing well, it will be interesting to see which side wins the battle when the two step on the field together in week 17.
The Falcons offense definitely has the playmakers to score points and they will likely do so against Tampa Bay. Ryan has been up and down all season tossing 20 touchdowns with 12 interceptions. Running back Michael Turner is having a down year as he has battled ankle problems during the last few weeks and listed as questionable for this Sunday. However, wide receiver Roddy White and tight end Tony Gonzalez can inflict plenty of damage on opposing pass defenses. White has eclipsed the 1,000 yards receiving mark and the two stars together have combined for nearly 2,000 yards with 16 touchdowns. Although, the Buccaneers secondary has been surprisingly solid despite their 3-12 record allowing just 206 yards per game. However with Turner banged up, Atlanta's success on offense will be a direction correlation to how well Ryan throws the football.
Still, the determining factor in this game will be Buccaneers QB Josh Freeman. Freeman has thrown a ton of interceptions during his 8 starts, 16 total to be exact. Freeman has shown the ability to move the ball down the field, but has to learn when not to force bad passes. The Atlanta pass defense has been quite horrible this season ranking 28th in the NFL allowing 247 yards per game. Therefore, Freeman will have plenty of opportunities to get tight end Kellen Winslow and wide out Antonio Bryant involved in the passing game. Freeman and the Buccaneers will move the ball through the air, but the question is how many mistakes will be made to keep the Buccaneers out of the end zone?
Betting Trends
Tampa Bay has been miserable at home against the books going just 1-9 in their last 10 games while sporting an embarrassing 1-8 mark straight up in their last 9 games at home. The Buccaneers have gone under the total in 5 of their last 5 games. Atlanta is 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games while also going 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games on the road. The Falcons however are just 1-4 SU in their last 5 games on the road. The Falcons have also gone under the total in 5 of their last 5 games as well.
Jay's Pick - The Falcons just narrowly escaped Tampa Bay earlier this year 20-17. The Buccaneers are playing even better and they could be in line for their 3rd straight victory. However, Freeman is a shaky bet behind center. Rather I like both offenses to shine here breaking the under streak each team has going in expectations this will be a quarterback shootout. Take the over 41½.
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