Green Bay Packers (10-0 SU, 7-3 ATS) vs. Detroit Lions (7-3 SU, 6-3-1 ATS), 12:30 p.m. EST, Week 12 NFL, Thursday, November 24, 2011, Ford Field, Detroit, Mich., TV: FOX
by Badger, Pro Gridiron Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: GB -6/Det +6
Over/Under Total: 55.5
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The city of Detroit has been hosting their traditional Thanksgiving Day football game since 1934, but none of them have been bigger than this year’s game in the National Football League when the Detroit Lions host the NFC North rival and undefeated Green Bay Packers at Ford Field in the early game on Fox.
For the first time in over a decade the Lions are fighting for an NFL playoff birth, sitting at 7-3 for the season, which is the biggest reason for the hype surrounding this game and what is sure to be a hyper atmosphere inside Ford Field on Thursday.
The Lions set the table for a big Turkey Day showdown with a come from behind victory over the Carolina Panthers last Sunday, 49-35. Detroit erased and early 17-point deficit and scored 35 points after halftime behind a 335-yard, five-touchdown performance from quarterback Matthew Stafford. The Lions defense also forced four interceptions and a sack of Carolina QB Cam Newton in a tune-up game before they face the MVP front-runner Aaron Rodgers and the Packers high-powered offense.
GB remained perfect on the season so far with their 10th win in ten tries in Sunday’s, 35-26, decision over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Rodgers threw for 299 yards and three touchdowns in the win over the Bucs, but the Packers defense once again made things in little tense in the final minutes allowing Tampa Bay to hang around until the very end.
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A Rodgers interception opened the door for the Tampa comeback late in the fourth quarter, and the Packers also had a terrible time trying to tackle LaGarrette Blount all game long, giving the Packers plenty to work on during the short week despite staying undefeated so far in 2011.
With a huge national television audience watching as their turkey dinner is still roasting in the oven, the Thanksgiving Day NFL games are some of the most heavily wagered on games of the season. With that in mind, the oddsmakers in Las Vegas set the opening point spread for the game with the “public-heavy” Packers as 7-point favorites on the road.
The sharp bettors hammered the number early and often, causing most sportsbooks to drop it to Packers minus -6, where it still stands currently.
The over/under total opened at 55.5 and has yet to experience any line movement in either direction after the first 24 hours since it’s been up on the board.
The total has been set so high because on paper, this game could see its share of fireworks on offense.
So much has been made of the zone that Rodgers is in this year and with good reason, since the Packers average over 400 yards of total offense (406.5 ypg – 4th) and lead the league in scoring with a 35.5 points per game average. With a receiving crew that goes six deep and a threesome of tight ends that is headlined by Jermichael Finley, there’s plenty of firepower for the Packers.
But if there is a knock on the Packers on offense, it would be that their running game is 21st in the league with an average of just 101 yards per game. However, the Packers don’t really need to run the ball with their aerial attack. Another factor to watch for is the health of running back James Starks, who has been the grinder for the Packers late in the game when they need to work the clock and move the chains. Starks left last week’s game with a sprained knee and is listed as questionable for a short week turnaround on Thursday.
Detroit’s offense showed it’s full potential in last week’s 49-point barrage of Carolina, although with three turnovers in their first three possessions they also showed their Achilles heel too. With Stafford healthy and finally shaking his game and a half funk in the second half last Sunday, the Lions at 30.1 points per game should be able to compete with the Packers even if it turns into a shootout.
Detroit also got a nice shot in the arm from running back Kevin Smith last week, who returned to the team to record a career-high 140 yards rushing and two scores in the win over the Panthers. If Smith can continue to balance the Lions attack, and with Calvin Johnson presenting all sorts of mismatches on the outside, there’s no reason not to expect the Lions to hang with the Packers score for score.
Where the difference in this game is noticeable is on defense. Detroit has the fearsome front seven led by Ndamukong Suh and Cliff Avrill, but surprisingly enough it is the Lions run defense that has had problems at times stopping the big plays (134 ypg – 28th). On paper the Lions secondary looks like it can matchup well with the Packers (192 ypg – 5th), but when you start talking about matching up with guys like Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb as the No.4 and No. 5 receivers, the Packers will win those matchups if you try and match nickel backs or safeties on them in those situations.
Another thing the Lions have going for them is that they’ve historically always played the Packers really tough, including last year when they lost by two in the game at Lambeau and won, 7-3, in late December in the game at Ford Field. In that game last year the Lions knocked Rodgers out of the game with a concussion early, and the Packers were unable to muster much of an attack with their backup Matt Flynn.
That game snapped a 10-game win streak the Packers had on Detroit, and a 19-game losing streak the Lions had against the NFC North overall. But this year is a different year for Detroit, as they’ve been snapping streaks all season long as they’ve marched into playoff contention in the NFC.
If you’re looking to the betting trends for some insight into where to wager in this game, there are a few trends worth mulling over.
Both teams have done well on short rest in the past (on six days or less), with Green Bay going 21-10 ATS over the last three seasons while the Lions are 16-13 ATS over the same span. But Thursday’s tend to be trouble for the Lions, as they are 0-2 ATS the last two years and 10-11 ATS since 1993, while Green Bay is 1-0 ATS this year and 2-0 ATS in the last three years.
The Lions are a solid home dog, going 5-2 ATS in past three seasons as an underdog of 3.5 to 7 points. However, Green Bay is 11-4 ATS as the favorite (3.5 to 7 points) over the past three seasons and 5-1 ATS (3-0 ATS this season) as a road favorite under the same circumstances.
Both teams are 7-3 in favor of the over this season, as the other over/under betting trends are mixed in both directions.
Badger’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I like the UNDER 55.5.
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