New York Giants vs. New Orleans Saints Point Spread - Pick

New York Giants (6-4 SU, 4-5-1 ATS) vs. New Orleans Saints (7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS), 8:30 p.m. EST, Week 12 NFL, Monday, November 28, 2011, Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, La., TV: ESPN
by Badger, Pro Football Handicapper, Predictem.com

Point Spread: NYG +7/NO -7
Over/Under Total: 51.5

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If New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning wants to prove to everyone that he is an elite QB in the National Football League, and that his Giants are a playoff-worthy team, then this week’s NFC showdown against Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints in the Superdome on Monday Night Football in primetime will be the perfect forum.

Manning and the Giants had a chance to prove it last week in primetime on Sunday Night Football, and also put some distance between themselves and the rest of the chase pack in the NFC East, but they failed on both accounts in a 17-10 loss at home to the Philadelphia Eagles. It was the same old frustrating story for the Giants, with just 249 yards of offense and 12 first downs and a crucial fumble by Manning in the closing seconds with a chance to tie the game on the line … the script is starting to get old for Giants fans.

Now the Giants will have to go on the road and forget about the chances they had to bury the rival Eagles, because if they’re not focused on the task at hand then Brees and the Saints will bury them deeper into a hole.

New Orleans will be rested and ready coming off their bye week, although the momentum they gained from their big, 26-23, overtime victory over the NFC South rival Atlanta Falcons going into the break may be long gone.

The Saints played just good enough to win in Atlanta two Sunday’s ago, getting a 26-yard field goal from John Kasay midway through the overtime period to win. But many would argue that the Falcons and coach Mike Smith handed the game to the Saints that day when a crucial 4th-down attempt deep in the own territory backfired miserably.

Regardless, what isn’t debatable is the fact that the win put the Saints in the driver’s seat in the NFC South, with a full game lead over the Falcons and a home game against them late in December. With a favorable schedule down the stretch (home vs. NYG, Det., Atl. and Carolina, at Tenn. and Minn.), now is the time for the Saints to put the pedal to the floor and position themselves for some home games in the NFC playoffs.

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With the Giants coming off a bad loss and the Saints rested and healthy, oddsmakers set the opening point spread for the game on Monday Night Football with New Orleans as 6.5-point favorites. Everyone jumping ship from the Giants bandwagon has forced a majority of sportsbooks to move the number up to Saints minus -7, or even minus -7.5, as most of the early money is coming in on the home team.

The over/under total opened at 52 and has dropped to 51.5 at just about every book in Las Vegas and on the Web, taking the push out of play.

The two offenses in this game come into it on opposite ends of the spectrum.

With Brees and the Saints you know you’re going to get aggressive play calling, accurate passing to a wide variety of weapons over the middle and on the perimeter, and just enough running to balance things out and keep the defense honest. Even after the bye the Saints are still tops in the NFL in total yards (437 ypg), passing yards (319 ypg) and 2nd overall in scoring with 31 points per game.

With the Giants you’re not really sure what you’ll get on offense. You used to be able to bank on a solid run-first attack on the ground, but injuries at running back and troubles along the offensive line have dropped the G-men to 31st in the league with a meager 83 yards rushing per game average. With more pressure on Manning to carry the offense, he’s turned in his best Jeckel and Hyde persona week to week either looking good (2,952 yards, 18 TD) or really bad (61 %, 9 INT) depending on how he feels that given day.

The NYG and Manning have had a particularly hard time converting third downs this season, as their 35.9 percent success rate is in the lower half of the league and the root of the problem on offense.

That in turn has translated into a lot of snaps and a lot of pressure on the Giants defense to perform above and beyond the call each week. It has also caused their numbers to look worse (21st in total defense (362 ypg), 21st in scoring defense (28 ppg)) than they’ve actually played all season long, since they’ve yet to get blown out by anyone, they just seem to wear out in their losses from being on the field all the time.

Defense has also been the root of the Saints problems at times this season. No longer the run-stuffing, ball-hawking unit that they rode all the way to the Super Bowl a few years ago, now the Saints are a gimmicky, blitz-happy unit that needs to trick teams into mistakes in order to get off the field. Their propensity to blitz is indicated in the fact that safety Roman Harper leads the team in sacks with 6.5. But all that said, if you go by just the stats alone they are still a notch above the Giants since they rank 20th in total defense (361 ypg) and 20th in scoring defense (23 ppg).

Neither defense played all that well the last time these two played, a 48-27 victory for the Saints back in 2009 in the Superdome. New Orleans has won two in a row and three of the last four meetings between these two going back to 2003, but prior to that the Giants owned the head-to-head series in the late 1990s and early 2000s by winning four of five overall from 1995 through 2001.

The against the spread numbers follow the straight up numbers almost identically, with the Saints going 2-0 ATS in the last two and 3-1 ATS in the last four, while the Giants owned the series prior with a 4-1 ATS record from ‘95 to ’01.

There are some interesting betting trends though.

Perhaps the most interesting one is the fact that the Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last four games in primetime on Monday Night Football. They are also 17-7 ATS in their last 24 road games against a winning team. But then you look at their 3-7 ATS record vs. the NFC and their 1-4-1 ATS mark in their last six games overall and the bloom comes off the rose.

The Saints have been solid at home (4-0 ATS), at home against quality opponents (6-1 ATS vs. teams with winning road records) and strong in November too (6-1 ATS in L7). The favorite is also 6-1 ATS in the head-to-head series over the years, and the home team is 6-1 ATS as well in the last seven meeting between the Giants and Saints.

The over/under trends are scattered all over the place, but the under is 5-2-1 in the last eight head-to-head meetings. But all of those unders have taken place out in the elements in New York, since the over is a perfect 3-0 in the Superdome since the 194 season.

Badger’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: The Saints are a different beast inside the Superdome, but as we’ve learned this year with teams coming out of their bye week, I think they might be a little out of sync at the start. Plus, the Giants can bring the type of pressure to knock Brees around and get him out of his comfort zone. I’d lean toward a Saints cover, but 7 is a big number. Instead I’m going to try the safer play of the under in hopes that both offenses struggle to score. I’m taking the under of 51.5.

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