Green Bay Packers (8-4 SU, 7-4-1 ATS) vs. Chicago Bears (5-7 SU, 4-8
ATS), Week 14 NFL, 1:00 p.m. EST, Sunday, December 13, 2009, Soldier Field,
Chicago, Ill., TV: FOX
by Badger of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Packers -3/Bears +3
Over/Under: 41
Bet this game at a sportsbook that offers parlays where you can actually lose some games and still get paid. These babies are called "progressive parlays" and can be found at the web's biggest online sportsbook: Sportsbook.
The oldest rivalry in professional football and one of the NFL’s best and most heated rivalries in the black-n-blue NFC North Division will kickoff another edition this Sunday when the Chicago Bears host the Green Bay Packers at Soldier Field in Chicago.
The Packers continued their march toward the NFC playoffs by winning their fourth game in a row on Monday Night, 27-14, over the Baltimore Ravens. The Pack controlled the tempo in running out to a 17-0 halftime lead, but the Ravens closed it to 17-14 before quarterback Aaron Rodgers threw one of his three touchdowns in Green Bay’s 10- point fourth quarter to pull away and maintain the Packers grip on one of the wildcard spots in the NFC.
The Bears finally ended a tumultuous and season-killing four-game losing streak last weekend by beating the St. Louis Rams at home at Soldier Field, 17-9. Quarterback Jay Cutler didn’t throw any interceptions, although he had just 18 attempts, as the Bears finally decided a little too late to get back to the running game of Matt Forte in the easy victory over the one-win Rams.
For the Packers this has become an ultra important game because with two games remaining on the schedule at Pittsburgh (next week) and at Arizona season finale), the Packers really need a win over the rival Bears on Sunday to solidify their spot in the NFC wildcard standings.
Trying to keep their hated rivals to the North out of the playoffs is plenty of motivation for Chicago and coach Lovie Smith, and a win would give Bears fans an early Christmas present finish to what otherwise has been a hair-pulling season.
The point spread for this game opened with the Packers as 3-point favorites on the road and for the most part the line has yet to move in either direction. There are a few offshore sportsbooks that have moved it up the hook to Green bay minus -3.5, but those are a scant few as a majority of the books are still sitting right at 3.
Even though there has been little action in regards to the point spread, the early line movement with the over/under total has been strange.
The game opened with the total at 43 at the few sportsbooks that open their windows early and set the line (like at the Las Vegas Hilton), but most of the offshore sportsbooks that wait an extra day on releasing the total opened it a day later at 41.
So consequently, you can get anywhere from a 43 (Hilton and Planet Hollywood) or even 43.5 (Bookmaker.com), all the way down to 41 (at the rest of the offshore books) since nobody seems to agree on where to set the total for this contest.
Offensively you can expect the Bears to continue with the run-first approach with Forte that seemed to get away from them rather easily during their losing streak. With Cutler putting extra pressure on himself during his interception run, the Bear offensive coordinator Ron Turner certainly didn’t make it an easier calling 40 to 50 pass plays a game, like he did in losses to the 49ers and Philly.
Forte had 91 yards rushing and a touchdown in the victory over the Rams, and the Bears as a team ran for 120 yards and had 20 more running plays than pass plays called in last week’s win, so it appears that someone or something has happened to get the Bears offense back on track. There’s no reason the Bears with Forte are ranked 30th in the league in rushing (87.9 ypg).
What will be interesting to see is how well the Bears can run it on the Packers, the No. 1 ranked defense in the NFL (273.5 ypg). The Packers allow only 87.2 yards per game on the ground (4th), and held a run-first Baltimore team to just 66 yards last week, so it won’t be easy for the Bears. The Packers also forced three sacks, had three interceptions and recovered a fumble in a dominating performance over the Ravens.
The Bears offense may also be forced to play catch up, or better yet, keep up with Rodgers and the Packers offense. Rodgers (3,399, 25 TD, ) has been stellar, both in his play and his decision-making, and the Packers issues along the offensive line appear to have been fixed. The Pack is ranked 7th in scoring (26.9 ppg), a full touchdown better then the Bears 22nd-ranked unit (19.4 ppg).
These two played the first game of their season series back in the regular season opener in September, a 21-15 victory for the Packers when Cutler threw his fourth interception in the closing minute. That was the first of many Cutler meltdowns this season, as the Bears actually outgained (352-to-226) and outplayed the Packers on the day, but couldn’t overcome the turnovers to let the Packers win and cover the spread as 4.5-point home favorites.
That was one of the rare times a favorite has covered in this series, as the underdog is 4-2 ATS in the last six games head-to-head.
While the Bears have enjoyed a 6-4 SU edge in the last 10 meetings (3-1 SU at Soldier Field), the Packers have been the better wager for bettors with a 5-4-1 edge in the same 10 games that expands to a 12-5-1 ATS edge if you stretch it out over the last 18 meetings.
The Packers are also a very strong team to bet on when they’re on the road, going 17-7-1 ATS in their last 25 road games overall, and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 visits to Soldier Field.
The under has cashed in three games in a row, and has cashed in five of the last seven, but the under is just 3-2 in the last five games in Chicago.
Badger’s Pick: Rivalry games never go the way you expect them on paper, so I expect the Packers to have their hands full with a fired up Bears team on Sunday. The Bears always play the Packers tough, and Lovie Smith has made it his stated mission to beat the Packers at all costs (as he stated at his first press conference when he was announced the head coach), so I’m taking the home dog here. Take Chicago plus 3 points.
Editor's Picks - Each week our in house pro's tackle the week's card and make predictions on the week's games ATS! Best bets, top plays, premium selections, etc. FREE!
Expert Picks - Free premium plays from the "real" expert handicappers from around the web. Don't fall for second rate picks from ESPN, the NFL Network, Hank Goldberg or the screaming touts on TV.
Underdog of the Week - We pick out the loudest barking dog of the week. Expect a 60% winning percentage with these selections.
Favorite of the Week - We examine "the chalk" and determine the safest bet in which who you should lay the points with.
Over/Under of the Week - Our in house cappers report which NFL game is most likely to go over or under the posted total.
The Armchair Quarterback - ACQ makes an appearance at Predictem to give out his much coveted troika of free weekly NFL picks. Put your helmet on and tackle your bookie with these sick picks. He is simply FLAT NASTY!
Line Movement Plays - We report all the major line moves from the gridiron and distinguish whether it's public money or sharp action causing the move.
NFL Consensus Picks - See what the general public is betting on. We use this info to fade the public to the tune of big profits over the course of the season.
NFL Trends - Don't ever let anybody tell you that the trend is your friend. These picks make great fades which is exactly what we do with them.
Monday Night Football Picks - The ultimate bailout play. Our MNF picks are golden and have hit 62% or better the past 3 years. Did we mention that their FREE?
Superbowl Predictions - Our take before the season on who we think will win Superbowl XLIV. We'll update with a final pick based on the actual remaining teams a week prior to the big game at Dolphins Stadium on February 7th, 2010.
Super Bowl Picks - Everybody here in the Predictem office takes their best preseason shot at predicting the winner Superbowl 44. Pride is on the line here! Oh, and LOOT too! Picks will be updated a 2nd and final time two weeks before the Super Bowl plays.
2009 NFL Predictions - David Lane focuses on the new coaches in the league and gives predictions on how they'll do this season.
Free UFL Picks - Point spread predictions for the new United Football League each week of their season (starting in October).
Sportsbook - Tired of deposit hassles? This place has a 90% acceptance rate of accepting credit cards. Even from Americans!
5Dimes - 15 team parlays! 20 point teasers! Pleasers and huge point buying opportunities as well!
Sportbet - Bet NFL games at -105 odds up to $500 when making your bets on Tuesday's!
PlayersOnly - Offers progressive parlays in which you can have losers on your card and still cash in!
Superbowl Betting - We explain all the different types of wagers you can making including point spread bets, totals, moneylines and prop bets.
Statless NFL Handicapping - The quick, easy way and yes, it's effective!
Betting NFL Underdogs - It's the first thing you should consider every Sunday. We explain why.
Choosing an Online Sportsbook - We talk about things to consider before you commit to play at one.
Famous Football Quotes - From the inspirational to the greatest touchdown calls of all time. We've got them!
Pro Football Hall of Fame - A full list of NFL players who have been inducted into the NFL HOF.
The Spread NFL Football - Offers free game predictions, matchups, stats including both offensive and defensive and more!
Fantasy Football Sites - Get recommendations on where to find weekly updated player news, depth charts and legit websites that offer the best stat and record tracking for your fantasy football league.
