Green Bay Packers (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS) vs. Cleveland Browns (1-5 SU, 3-3
ATS), 1:00 p.m. EST, NFL Week 7, Sunday, October 25, 2009, Cleveland Browns
Stadium, Cleveland, Ohio, TV: FOX
by Badger of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Packers -7/Browns +7
Over/Under: 41.5
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It’s a safe bet that there will be more fans wearing green-n-gold in the crowd at Cleveland Stadium on Sunday then there will be wearing brown-n-orange when the Browns host the Green Bay Packers in an early game on Fox.
After all, what reason do Browns fans have to go to the stadium these days? Quarterback controversies, a one-time franchise player (Braylon Edwards) getting arrested and then traded away, an offense that can’t move the ball in the air or on the ground, and a defense that can’t seem to stop anybody … let’s just say it’s ugly in Cleveland these days.
The Browns stumbled to 1-5 on the season last week with a 27-14 loss at Pittsburgh, but don’t be confused by the score because the game was never that close. In fact, if the Browns didn’t have the best return man in the game these days, Joshua Cribbs, it would have been worse because Cribbs ran back a kickoff for a score in the loss.
Meanwhile, the Packers are one of the country’s most popular teams and their fans are notorious for overtaking opposing team’s stadiums and negating their homefield advantage. Cleveland is a short drive from Wisconsin, so expect the Packers contingent to be out in force on Sunday.
On the field the Packers are coming off of a 26-0 victory over the injury-depleted Detroit Lions last weekend, but even though it was a shutout there were still plenty of warts for the Packers to take care of after the game. Somehow they gave up five sacks to the Lions, making it now 25 times this season that quarterback Aaron Rodgers has been dropped. They were only 1-for-5 in the red zone and they also led 23-0 at half and flipped it into cruise control in the second half, so there are plenty of issues that Green Bay coach Mike McCarthy will have to work on this week.
Most oddsmakers are expecting the same scenario, installing the Packers as 6.5-point favorites when the windows opened late last Sunday. The line has moved slightly, up to 7 with even a 7.5 at 5Dimes.com.
The over/under total is seeing line movement in the other direction though, as it opened at 43 and has dropped like a rock all the way down to 41.5 at most of the offshore books. The sportsbooks in Las Vegas are still listing the total at 42.
But the point spread and total could already be off the board by the time you’re reading this because Cleveland sent 12 players home on Wednesday with the flu, so who knows what kind of shape the locker room will be in come Sunday.
Offensively this game is a complete mismatch on paper.
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The Packers are in the top-10 in every offensive category with the lone exception of rushing yards, where their 101.2 yards per game average is ranked 19th overall. They also score at a strong clip, with the 26 points per game average ranked 8th in the league.
Green Bay’s only problem on offense, and it’s a huge one, is protecting the quarterback. With 25 sacks and numerous knockdowns the offensive line is going to kill Rodgers one of these weeks. Starting left tackle Chad Clifton is still battling an ankle injury too, so the Packers may be forced to start rookie T.J. Lang on Rodger’s blind side this week, and that’s enough to make anyone nervous.
The Browns offense … not so good. After stumbling out of the gate with Brady Quinn as their quarterback the Browns made a change to Derek Anderson a few weeks back, but the results have not changed at all. Cleveland is currently ranked 31st in total yards (239.8 ypg) and passing yards (136.2 ypg), and their 11.5 points per game average is 30th. That’s not going to get the job done in the NFL.
Anderson was 9-for-24 for 122 yards last week versus Pittsburgh, one week after going just 2-for-11 for 22 yards against Buffalo, so it’s hard to tell if the Browns offense is better with him behind center or not. Bettors will tell you they like Anderson better though, as the Browns have covered all three games he has started.
Defensively it’s a huge mismatch as well, as the Packers enter the game ranked 8th in the league in yards allowed (298 ypg) and 6th in points allowed (18.6 ppg), while the Browns come into the game dead- last allowing 407.3 yards a game and 24.7 points per contest (26th). It won’t get better for the Browns either, as middle linebacker and leading tackler D’Qwell Jackson is likely done for the season after suffering a shoulder injury in the Steelers game.
These two have already faced each other once this season, but it was in the preseason (a 17-0 win by Green Bay). As far as regular season action is concerned, the last time they met was a 26-24 victory for Cleveland back in 2005 when Trent Dilfer outplayed Brett Favre. The Browns covered the 6-point spread as underdogs that day too. Their only other regular season matchup was in 2001, a 30-7 victory for the Packers as 7.5-point favorites.
Both games went over the total.
Even the betting trends favor the Pack in this game, since Green Bay has been road warriors with a 15-6-1 ATS record in their last 22 road games, while Cleveland is 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games in Cleveland Browns Stadium.
Badger’s Pick: Let’s not forget that Green Bay’s three wins came against St. Louis, Detroit and Chicago, not exactly the cream of the league. But even so, it’s hard to not like the Packers in this game, especially if a bunch of the Browns are still sick with the flu on Sunday. If Cribbs is one of those players with the flu, then Cleveland is screwed. Take Green Bay minus the 7 points.
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