Green Bay Packers (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) vs. San Francisco 49ers (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS)
NFL Week 1
Date and Time: Sunday, September 8, 4:25pm ET
Where: Candlestick Park
by Evergreen, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: GB +4.5/SF -4.5
Over/Under Total: 48.5
Bet your Pack/Niners pick at an online bookie that offers you a fat 100% signup bonus up to $500 AND a free half point on your (2) favorite NFL teams each week! Find this offer and much more at GTBets!
The NFL season is here and with all due respect to the Thursday Night Football opener, Iím most looking forward to the Sunday matchup between the Packers and 49ers. Aaron Rodgers leads the Pack into Candlestick Park to face the 49ers and Colin Kaepernick in what will certainly be a revenge game for Green Bay after the Niners bounced the Green and Gold out of last yearís playoffs. This could easily be an NFC Championship preview and it will be interesting to see which contender puts a good foot forward to start the 2013 campaign.
Nearly all online sportsbooks opened this game with San Francisco as a 4.5 point favorite and that line hasnít moved although you may be able to find a 5 point line out there depending on where you bet. The Packers are on the money line at +180 with the Niners at -220 and the over/under total for the game is running anywhere from 48 to 49.
There hasnít been a ton of turnover on these teams from last year but there are some injury issues, so letís get those out right up front. Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb are both listed as probable on the Packers report. Green Bay will need its full complement on offense throughout the season and it looks as if it will have it in Week 1. The Packers are without Bryan Bulaga on the offensive line for the season and CB Tramon Williams is currently questionable for the game and has not practiced through the summer. The 49ers are without Michael Crabtree, Mario Manningham and LaMichael James on the offensive side but are good to go on defense with Patrick Willis reported as probable for Sunday.
This game really boils down to Green Bayís defense versus San Franís offense. Kaepernick scorched the Packers D in the last meeting as he threw for 263 yards, added 181 on the ground and accounted for four scores. The 45-31 final score didnít really tell the story of how bad the Niners made the Packers defense look as there were several occasions where Packer defenders were simply caught completely unaware of where the ball was. Dom Capers will need to earn his paycheck this week and come up with something to slow the read-option portion of the Niner offense as Iím sure San Fran will start right where it left off in the last game just to see if it will work again.
STOP WASTING MONEY! STOP LAYING -110 ODDS ON FOOTBALL GAMES! START LAYING ONLY -105 AT BETANYSPORTS! MAKING THE SWITCH WILL SAVE YOU TONS OF MONEY EACH SEASON!
The 49ers also dropped the Pack in Week 1 last year by a 30-22 margin and did so with Alex Smith at the helm. Smith was efficient and the run game was more than the Packers could handle so, again, the Green Bay defense is on notice for Sunday. The Packers will need to force turnovers and pressure Kaepernick into bad throws as well as find a leadership component as Charles Woodson is no longer in the secondary. Clay Matthews is healthy and should find some success in getting into the backfield, just as he did while racking up 13 sacks in just 12 games last year.
Of course, Green Bay is all about Rodgers and Co. and they will always be a serious threat to put up huge numbers with the skill players on offense. The anemic rush offense was bolstered by the addition of Eddie Lacy in the draft and the Packers return their four best receiving options with James Jones and Jermichael Finley lining up with Cobb and Nelson. That quartet combined for 31 receiving touchdowns in 2012 and San Franciscoís defense will have its hands full trying to hold down one of the best QBís in the game. Aldon Smith recorded 19.5 sacks a year ago and now faces a patchwork O-line trying to keep Rodgers upright. Watch that matchup as an early determining factor on how this game plays out.
I donít see Green Bay holding this offense under 30, even with the Niners lack of reliable targets behind Anquan Boldin and Vernon Davis, so the question is, can the Packers get to that 28-30 point range? On paper, the answer is yes but in reality, the Green Bay offense is not set up to score like the 2000 Rams did and they need their defense to get stops or they simply do not beat teams that are better than they are. I think the Pack keeps Kaepernick under better wraps than in the playoff meeting but they will still surrender yards to Frank Gore and their secondary was routinely burned in the preseason by second teamers so watch out for the Niners to gain big chunks over the middle with the pass as well. The Packers are good, probably very good but this one ends badly for them against an offense that they do not have an answer for at this time. Take the over and the Niners. SF 33 GB 24
Evergreenís Pick to Cover the Point Spread: San Francisco
Preseason Picks - Many don't realize that there's good value in NFL preseason picks! They claim "how can you bet on a game when you don't know who is going to play?" Truth be told, many head coaches tell you how much playing time key players will receive prior to the game!
Editor's Picks - Each week our in house pro's tackle the week's card and make predictions on the week's games ATS! Best bets, top plays, premium selections, etc. FREE!
Expert NFL Picks - Free premium plays from the "real" expert football handicappers from around the web. Don't fall for second rate picks from ESPN, the NFL Network, Hank Goldberg or the screaming touts on TV.
Underdog of the Week Pick - We forecast the loudest barking dog of the week. Expect a 60% winning percentage with these plays.
Favorite of the Week Play - We examine "the chalk" and determine the safest bet in which who you should lay the points with. Forecasting winning favorites long term isn't easy, but we've had some pretty good luck with it over the years.
Line Movement Plays - We report all the major line moves from the gridiron and forecast whether it's public money or sharp action causing the move. Who will cover the spread this week? Our line move plays!
NFL Consensus Picks - See what the general public is betting on. We use this info to fade the public to the tune of big profits over the course of the season.
Bookies Picks - Each week, we'll post which side the bookies are on. Please note: These are not OUR picks. We're simply reporting the teams the bookies need to cover the spread in order for them to win. Games receiving equal action on both sides will not be factored into these records.
Office Pool Picks - You asked for it and you got it! Each week, we'll post our predictions to win each game straight up so that you can RULE your pick'em league!
NFL Trends - Don't ever let anybody tell you that the trend is your friend. These picks make great fades which is exactly what we do with them.
NFL Computer Picks - We enter the statistics into the database and the computer crunches the numbers and gives final score predictions. These should be used for entertainment only!
Monday Night Football Picks - The ultimate bailout play. Our MNF picks are golden and have hit 62% or better 3 out of the past 4 years. (Last season was a disaster!) Did we mention that their FREE?
2016 NFL Predictions - Badger breaks down each division and gives his picks on which teams he thinks will win the AFC and NFC Conferneces (plus Super Bowl winner prediction).
Super Bowl Picks - Everybody here in the Predictem office takes their best preseason shot at predicting the winner Superbowl 50. Pride is on the line here! Oh, and LOOT too!
5Dimes - Bet your NFL football picks at -105 odds every day of the week! 15 team parlays! 20 point teasers! Pleasers and huge point buying opportunities as well!
Bovada - Tired of deposit hassles? Bet on football using your credit card at a sportsbook where your Visa CAN and WILL work for deposits! Offers a 50% sign-up bonus up to $250 FREE!
MyBookie - Credit cards work GREAT here! Get a massive 50% bonus up to $1000 in free cash!
Bookmaker - Watch the game for a bit THEN make a wager! Yes! You can jump in after the action has started using their awesome live betting feature! Get a massive 50% bonus up to $300 in FREE bonus cash OR take advantage of their enormous 15% bonus up to $2500 in free cash! The best sportsbook for highrollers!
Super Bowl Betting - We explain all the different types of wagers you can making including point spread bets, totals, moneylines and prop bets. No need to go to Vegas! You can bet the big game online!
Weekly Fantasy Football - If you drafted a crappy team or the injury bug has bit you and wrecked your season, we've got something really cool to turn you on to that will change the way you play fantasy sports forever!
Famous Football Quotes - From the inspirational to the greatest touchdown calls of all time. We've got them!
Pro Football Hall of Fame - A full list of NFL players who have been inducted into the NFL HOF.
The Spread - Offers free NFL football predictions, matchups, stats including both offensive and defensive and more!
Fantasy Football Sites - Get recommendations on where to find weekly updated player news, depth charts and legit websites that offer the best stat and record tracking for your fantasy football league.