Green Bay Packers (4-3, 4-3 ATS) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-7, 1-6 ATS), NFL Week 9, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Sunday, Nov. 8th, 1 PM Eastern, Fox
By Z-Man of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Packers -10/Bucs +10
Over/Under: 43 1/2
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Former NFC Central Division rivals renew acquaintances when the Green Bay Packers, coming off that emotional loss to Minnesota, become snowbirds and fly south to Florida for a visit with the last winless team in the league, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Sunday afternoon.
Many online sportsbooks opened Green Bay as 9 1/2-point favorites over Tampa, with a total of 44. But the Packers were quickly bet up to -10, while the total has dropped a half-point at most shops, to 43½.
Green Bay is also listed at right around -525 on most NFL betting moneylines, with the Buccaneers getting upwards of +425 as home underdogs.
The Packers this season own wins over Chicago, St. Louis, Detroit and Cleveland, and have lost to Cincinnati and twice to Minnesota. At 4-3, the Pack sits 2 ½ games behind the Vikes in the NFC North race, and is tied with the Bears and Atlanta for the seven spot in the NFC Wild Card standings, a half-game behind the 5-3 New York Giants in the battle for the sixth and final playoff spot.
Tampa, meanwhile, has lost the first seven games of the Coach Morris era, falling to Dallas, Buffalo, the Giants, Washington, Philadelphia, Carolina and, two weeks ago, New England in London. And they've only covered one pointspread so far this year. Mercifully, the Bucs had last week off.
So at 0-7, TB is basically already playing for next year, or even the season beyond.
So far this season, the Packers are outgaining their opponents, on average, by a 373-283 YPG margin, and outrushing foes 114-99. Tampa, meanwhile, is getting outgained this season 376-272, and outrushed 162-98.
Looking a little deeper into the stats sheets, Green Bay ranks 8th in the league in average time-of-possession this year at +3:08, while Tampa ranks 23rd at -2:46.
And Green Bay is tied for the league lead with a +12 turnover ratio, while the Bucs rank 20th at -2.
But one of the problems the Packers have had again this season is penalties. Through seven games, Green Bay ranks second-most in the league in yellow flags with 57, and third in penalty yardage at almost 68 YPG.
And the Packers have seen their quarterbacks get sacked a league-leading 31 times so far this year.
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Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers has performed admirably, despite the sacks and hits and pressures, and with an inconsistent running game. On the season, the second-year starter out of Cal has completed 65% of his passes for 8.8 YPA, which is nice, a 14/2 TD/INT ratio, and a league-leading 110.4 passing rating.
Rodgers got banged up Sunday vs. Minnesota, though, and is dealing with two sore feet. He's listed as probable for Sunday's game.
On the other side of this quarterback match-up, second-year man Josh Johnson, out of the University of San Diego, has started the last four games for the Bucs, hitting on just 50% of his throws for 5.5 YPA, which is low, a 4/8 TD/INT ratio and a less-than-stellar 50.9 QB rating. Josh Freeman is now the man in TB and how he'll perform is yet to be seen.
These two teams met last year, when Tampa moved to 3-1 and dropped GB to 2-2 with a 30-21 win at the new Sombrero. But the Bucs were a very different team at that time, on their way to a 9-3 start, before they lost their last four games in a row.
In their season and a half with Rodgers starting at quarterback, the Packers are 4-7 straight up but 7-4 against the spread on the road.
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Tampa, meanwhile, since jettisoning Coach Gruden and former starting QB Jeff Garcia, is 0-3 both SU and ATS at home.
The totals are 4-3 in both Packers and Buccaneers games this season. Green Bay games have averaged almost 46 points per, while Tampa Bay games have averaged almost 43 points.
On the NFL season as a whole, the totals have gone 58-55 this year.
NFL home dogs are 11-26 straight up and 15-22 vs. the pointspreads so far this season. And double-digit underdogs are 2-21 SU and 9-14 ATS so far this season.
The Sagarin PURE POINTS ratings at USAToday.com rate the Packers at 25.8, the Bucs at 5.7. Factoring in Sagarin's updated NFL home-field advantage figure of 1.4, and Green Bay is an 18 1/2-point favorite over Tampa on the Sagarin line.
Zman's Pick: I think TB will rally around the new QB, lose the game but cover the spread.
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