Home Field Advantage in the NFL
by Predictem.com Staff
It's hard to look at an NFL matchup and not think of the home field advantage. With tens of thousands of fans screaming, also known in many stadiums around the nation as the 12th man, it is a powerful enough variable in a game that it can put you on a game all by itself at times. Let's break it down and take a closer look at it so we can help you figure out when you should be taking it into serious consideration.
For starters, there is a misconception out there that the home field advantage (HFA) is worth 3 points. Are you telling me that Lambeau field in the ass freezing cold in the end of December is worth the same as a sunny San Diego Sunday in the month of September? Ok, now that we're on the same page, let's look at some more ideas here.
HFA means less in the beginning of the year because the good bookies are watching to see which teams are going to establish themselves and what kind of personality their going to take on. With that being said, we figure HFA to be worth less than a field goal in the early few weeks of the season.
As the season progresses and characteristics are formed, the HFA is definitely worth 3 points, sometimes even more, such as Denver, where the field is a mile high and out of towner's respiratory systems are not conditioned for such altitude. The same can be said in college football for the Hawaii team. How many times have you see the big boys of Bama go over there and struggle to beat a much lesser Hawaii team due to respiratory and cramping issues? These are REAL issues to take into consideration BEFORE you bet your hard earned cash.
HFA also becomes more valuable later in the season because of travel and fatigue issues.
It should also be noted that later in the season NFL teams are more likely to face crappy weather. A team from a warm weather city like the Miami Dolphins simply aren't conditioned to go to chilly places like the Buffalo Bills in the dead of winter.
Lastly, before you think your getting over on the bookie with ANY home field advantage information, be advised that they have already factored all that into the line.
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