Houston Texans (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (4-1 SU, 3-2
ATS), 1:00 p.m. EST, Sunday, October 18, 2009, Paul Brown Stadium,
Cincinnati, Ohio, TV: CBS
by Badger of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Texans +4.5/Bengals -4.5
Over/Under: 45
Before the season started if I would have told you that this weekend’s AFC clash between the Houston Texans and Cincinnati Bengals in Paul Brown Stadium would feature one team in solid playoff contention after five weeks and the other team fighting to save their coach’s job, few if any would have predicted it would be the 4-1 Bengals sitting in the driver’s seat and the Texans and coach Gary Kubiak thumbing for a ride.
The frying pan is especially hot for Kubiak this week following the Texans 28-21 loss to Arizona on Sunday, since Kubiak called for an inside handoff on 4th-and-goal instead of a play with more options.
Regardless, the loss moved the Texans to 2-3 and three full games behind the Colts in the AFC South standings, so Kubiak and the Texans need to turn the ship around before its sails on the season.
But they’ll have to do it against the hottest team in the NFL right now, the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals are one lucky tip-drill touchdown away from being undefeated this season, as they turned in another solid performance in a 17-14 victory over the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday.
Best of all, the Bengals notched three of their four wins on the road so far, and the game against the Texans opens a three-game homestand for the Bengals to try and strengthen their grip on first place in the AFC North.
The oddsmakers in Las Vegas opened the game with the Bengals as 4-point favorites at home, and enough early money has come to the window to move the line up the hook to Cincinnati -4.5 at most offshore sportsbooks and even -5.5 at the Mirage and Hilton in Las Vegas.
The over/under total opened at 45 and has held firm, with only the Hilton listing a different number on their board (45.5).
BET HOUSTON AS A +26.6 UNDERDOG BY USING A 21 POINT TEASER AT WAGERWEB
Cincinnati isn’t as flashy on offense as their flamboyant receiver Chad Ochocinco would like, but they seem to have mastered the art of the late come-from-behind winning drive. For three straight weeks the Bengals have put together a drive into scoring position when it was needed, with last week’s stunner over the Ravens coming with 27 second left in the game.
As a unit the Bengals rank a middle of the pack 18th in total offense (335.4 ypg), but a revamped and rededicated running game (126.6 ypg – 9th) has the Bengals lingering around until late into the game and its allowing quarterback Carson Palmer to operate comfortably in the two-minute drill.
The Texans offense has been very pass-oriented in the early going this season, relying on quarterback Matt Schaub and receiver Andre Johnson (273.6 ypg passing – 5th) to make up for a lack of a running game (75.4 ypg – 30th). It has worked against Oakland and Tennessee (the two Texans victories), but the one-dimensional attack doesn’t work against good teams (Arizona, Jets and Jacksonville).
The Bengals have enjoyed a renewed energy on defense this season, but truth be told the unit is doing a good job of playing the bend-but- don’t-break scheme. Overall the are 17th in total defense (327.6 ypg), but their rank improves drastically up to 9th in the league by allowing just 18 points per game.
The Texans have never really had a defense and this year is no different. The unit is 23rd overall (362.8 ypg) and gives up large real estate on the ground (140.6 ypg – 26th), so they’ve got a long way to go if they hope to get back into the playoff picture in the coming weeks.
The Bengals have won three of the four meetings in the head-to-head series, but all three of those wins came during the 2003 season or earlier. The Texans won the meeting last October, a 35-6 victory at home in Reliant Stadium as 9-point favorites.
The history on the field between these two teams is so short it’s nearly impossible to get a significant betting trend from the small sample. Cincinnati holds a slight 3-1 SU advantage, but the rest of the data (2-2 ATS, 2-2 O/U) is right down the middle. The Texans did cover the point spread in their last visit to Paul Brown Stadium, losing 1 16-10 decision but covering the number as 10-point underdogs.
Badger’s Pick: I really like what the Bengals have done, and are doing, so far this season. But I can’t get past the value here on the underdog Texans, getting as many as 5.5 points depending on where you wager. This is a gut pick, but I’m taking the road-dog Texans plus 5.5-points here.
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