Houston Texans (5-3 SU, 4-3-1 ATS) vs. Indianapolis Colts (7-0 SU, 5-2 ATS), 1:00 p.m. EST, Sunday, Week 9 NFL, November 8, 2009, Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Ind. TV: CBS
by Ryno of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Texans +9/Colts -9
Over/Under: 48
Bet this game at an online sportsbook that is currently offering a massive 100% sign up bonus where you deposit $116 and they give you $116 FREE! Find this great offer at one of the web's oldest and most trusted online sportsbooks: Sportsinteraction.
The Houston Texans have an opportunity to reach the playoffs for the first time in their history. At 5-3, the Texans are in second place in the AFC South and have a chance to give the Indianapolis Colts their first loss of the season.
But the Texans got a huge blow on Sunday when TE Owen Daniels left the game with a knee injury and could be out for the season. Daniels was arguably the best tight end in the NFL this season and was helping to make quarterback Matt Schaub look like a Pro Bowler. To complicate things even further, Steve Slaton fumbled for the seventh time this season and was benched after just one carry. Ryan Moats replaced him and ran for 126 yards and three touchdowns. Now, the Texans will use three running backs - Slaton, Moats and Chris Brown.
Schaub leads the NFL in passing yards with 2,342. He also has 16 passing touchdowns and seven interceptions. Daniels is gone, but Schaub still has his top target, wide receiver Andre Johnson, who leads the league in receiving yards with 697. Players like Kevin Walter and Jacoby Jones will now have to step up even more.
The Colts are 7-0 mainly because of the rejuvenation of Peyton Manning. Other than Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark, Manning is throwing to a bunch of no-names. He has made Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie into household names. Manning has 2,227 passing yards, 15 touchdowns and four interceptions. Wayne is right behind Johnson with 689 receiving yards on 51 catches, seven more than Johnson. Clark has 46 catches for 584 yards. In the backfield, Joseph Addai is having a mediocre season with 336 rushing yards and four touchdowns.
The Colts are coming off an 18-14 win over the 49ers, in which they needed a late halfback toss pass from Addai to Wayne for the game-winning touchdown. Prior to that, the Colts had won their last four games all by at least 17 points. The Colts have just one win over a team over .500, a 31-10 win at Arizona. The Texans also have just one win over a team over .500 - a 28-17 win at Cincinnati.
These two teams are very similar. Both have lived through their passing games. Schaub and Johnson are having career seasons. Daniels was as well, but his loss will certainly hurt the Texans. Manning has been incredible this season, as have Wayne and Clark. Meanwhile, neither team is running the ball particularly well. The Texans certainly have issues right now in their backfield. The Colts have been turning the ball over less than and been playing better defense than the Texans. This game will come down to which team can better stop the opposing team's passing attack. The Colts are seventh in the league in pass defense, allowing 180.1 passing yards per game. They've allowed only three passing touchdowns, while intercepting seven passes. The Texans are allowing 213.3 passing yards per game. They've allowed nine passing touchdowns and have come away with six interceptions.
BET THE HOUSTON TEXANS AT +30 BY USING A 21 POINT NFL TEASER AT WAGERWEB SPORTSBOOK
The Colts have only defeated the Texans by more than six points in one of the last five meetings between these two teams. The Colts are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games. The total has gone under in six of the Colts' last nine games. The Texans are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games. They are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games. The total has gone under in four of the Texans' last five games.
Ryno's Pick: This will be a battle of the quarterbacks. Both teams will be airing it out and trying to score a lot of points. The Texans have scored at least 24 points in all but two games, and the Colts have scored at least 27 points in all but two games. The over/under is only 48 because both teams have been going under a lot lately. But that has a lot to do with the level of competition both teams have faced. Neither team has an elite defense. This should be a shootout, and the over is a great play. But the Texans are an even better play. The Texans usually play well against the Colts. They have a lot of confidence right now. Not having Daniels will hurt, but Schaub will get all of his receivers involved and keep the Texans in this game. Take the Texans +9.
Editor's Picks - Each week our in house pro's tackle the week's card and make predictions on the week's games ATS! Best bets, top plays, premium selections, etc. FREE!
Expert NFL Picks - Free premium plays from the "real" expert football handicappers from around the web. Don't fall for second rate picks from ESPN, the NFL Network, Hank Goldberg or the screaming touts on TV.
Underdog of the Week Pick - We forecast the loudest barking dog of the week. Expect a 60% winning percentage with these plays.
Favorite of the Week Play - We examine "the chalk" and determine the safest bet in which who you should lay the points with. Forecasting winning favorites long term isn't easy, but we've had some pretty good luck with it over the years.
The Armchair Quarterback Predictions - ACQ makes an appearance at Predictem to give out his much coveted troika of free weekly NFL picks. Put your helmet on and tackle your bookie with these sick picks. He is simply FLAT NASTY!
Line Movement Plays - We report all the major line moves from the gridiron and forecast whether it's public money or sharp action causing the move.
NFL Consensus Picks - See what the general public is betting on. We use this info to fade the public to the tune of big profits over the course of the season.
NFL Trends - Don't ever let anybody tell you that the trend is your friend. These picks make great fades which is exactly what we do with them.
Monday Night Football Picks - The ultimate bailout play. Our MNF picks are golden and have hit 62% or better 3 out of the past 4 years. (Last season was a disaster!) Did we mention that their FREE?
Superbowl Predictions - Our take before the season on who we think will win Superbowl XLVI. We'll update with a final pick based on the actual remaining teams a week prior to the big game at Lucas Oil Stadium on February 5th, 2012.
Super Bowl Picks - Everybody here in the Predictem office takes their best preseason shot at predicting the winner Superbowl 46. Pride is on the line here! Oh, and LOOT too! Picks will be updated a 2nd and final time two weeks before the Super Bowl plays.
Free UFL Picks - Point spread predictions for the United Football League each week of their season (starting in October).
5Dimes - Bet your NFL football picks at -105 odds every day of the week! 15 team parlays! 20 point teasers! Pleasers and huge point buying opportunities as well!
Intertops - Tired of deposit hassles? Bet on football using your credit card at a sportsbook where your Visa CAN and WILL work for deposits!
SBG Global - Best parlays odds online! Get paid 12-1 on 4 team parlays! Best at accepting credit cards for deposits too!
Football Bets - We explain all the different types of wagers that you can place on an NFL game and give advice on which ones good and which are sucker bets. We also explore the value of betting at reduce odds.
Superbowl Betting - We explain all the different types of wagers you can making including point spread bets, totals, moneylines and prop bets.
Statless NFL Handicapping - The quick, easy way and yes, it's effective!
Betting NFL Underdogs - It's the first thing you should consider every Sunday. We explain why.
Choosing an Online Sportsbook - We talk about things to consider before you commit to play at one.
Famous Football Quotes - From the inspirational to the greatest touchdown calls of all time. We've got them!
Pro Football Hall of Fame - A full list of NFL players who have been inducted into the NFL HOF.
The Spread - Offers free NFL football predictions, matchups, stats including both offensive and defensive and more!
Fantasy Football Sites - Get recommendations on where to find weekly updated player news, depth charts and legit websites that offer the best stat and record tracking for your fantasy football league.