Houston Texans (5-6, 5-6 ATS) at Jacksonville Jaguars (6-5, 4-7 ATS), NFL Week 13, Municipal Stadium Jacksonville, F.L. Sunday December 6th, 1:00PM Eastern
By Jay Horne of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Texans +1/Jaguars -1
Over/Under: 46.5
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The Houston Texans travel to Jacksonville this weekend in an AFC South collision. The Jaguars are 2nd in the division at 6-5 with the Texans one game behind at 5-6. Both teams may be out of the playoff picture unless some gets really hot. However, the Texans and Jaguars have both shown signs they can string together a few wins at times this season. Houston had every opportunity to beat the Colts last week, but a late Matt Schaub interception returned for a touchdown doomed the Texans in the 4th quarter to fall 34-27.
For the Texans, it was the 3rd straight loss by a touchdown or less. Houston has to shake off those close losses and get back on track this weekend if there is going to be any chance at a successful season. Jacksonville on the other hand was shut down by San Francisco 20-3 ending a 3 game winning streak for the Jaguars. QB David Garrard actually threw for over 300 yards without a single interception in the contest against the 49ers. However, the Jaguars just could manufacture any points and gift wrapped a few fumbles in the loss. The Jaguars still have a legitimate chance in the playoff picture if they can string together a winning streak, but can not afford any more similar slip-ups.
The Jacksonville offense has been able to move the football this season averaging 354 yards per game, but like last week has struggled to make points averaging just 18.4 points per game. Running back Maurice Jones-Drew reached the 1,000 yard mark for the first time in his career and ranks 5th in the NFL this season in rushing yards to go along with 13 touchdowns. The Jaguars are averaging 132 yards per game as a team, but in recent weeks have gotten more help from Garrard. Garrard has completed 66% with 3 touchdowns and just 1 pick over the past 4 games.
The Jacksonville offense is much more dangerous when Garrard is throwing the ball well. Before the year started, it did not look like the Jaguars had any big playmaker on the outside to help the passing game. However, 3rd year WR Mike Sims-Walker has been pretty solid with 760 receiving yards and 6 scores. The Jaguars still may be in need of a big time playmaker, but they can still be plenty effective in the passing game and they will likely need to be this Sunday against the Texans offense.
Houston has the 3rd ranked pass offense in the league led by QB Matt Schaub. Schaub completed 31 of 42 passes against the Colts last week for 284 yards and 2 touchdowns. However, Schaub still threw 2 interceptions bringing his total to 11 on the year which has been a little bit of a concern. Of course the pick 6 was a big turning point in last week's close battle with the Colts. The offense must limit the turnovers this week as a primary objective and that will all start with Schaub behind center. WR Andre Johnson ranks 3rd individually with 945 receiving yards on the year. The Jaguars pass defense has given up a disappointing 243 yards per game through the air. Schaub and Johnson should find ways to make things happen against a secondary allowing those types of numbers.
Schaub actually had a solid game in the meeting with the Jaguars earlier this year completing 26 of 35 for 300 yards with 3 touchdowns and 1 interception. However, the Texans defense could not stop Jones-Drew in the contest and allowed just less than 200 yards on the ground. Houston must have a better defensive effort this time around. The Texans will have a better chance at the win if they can load the box against the Jaguars running game. If the Texans stop the run, it forces to Garrard to beat Schaub and the Texans pass offense which will be very difficult.
Jay's Pick - I just believe Houston has been playing better than their 3 game losing streak shows. This is the back against the wall game that falls under the "must win" scenario and Houston will pull this one out. Take Houston.
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