Houston Texans (11-6 SU, 11-5-1 ATS) at Baltimore Ravens (12-4 SU, 8-7-1 ATS)
Sunday January 15th, 2012. 1:00PM EST, NFL Divisional Playoffs Week
M&T Bank Stadium Baltimore, M.D.
By Jay Horne, NFL Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Hou +8.5/Bal -8.5
Over/Under Total: 35.5
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After losing 3 straight games to close out the regular season, the Houston Texans thundered back to life last week with a convincing 31-10 victory over Cincinnati to score their first playoff victory in franchise history. Now the Texans are just 1 game away from punching their ticket to the AFC Championship. Standing in their way will be the number 2 seeded Baltimore Ravens, a team that took down the talented AFC North Division Title and appears destined for a deep playoff run. Baltimore actually defeated the Texans 29-14 at home earlier this year and the Ravens will once again welcome Houston into M&T Bank Stadium again this Sunday with much higher stakes on the line.
This Sunday's match-up will feature two of the best defenses in the entire NFL that should provide an entertaining grudge match in the trenches. Houston ranks 2nd overall allowing 285 yards while Baltimore ranks 3rd overall allowing just 288 yards per game. Both defensive units rank in the top 4 against the run, against the pass, and in scoring. Additionally, both defensive groups are more than capable of putting together dominating performances and it will be interesting to see how much success either offense can establish.
Both Houston and Baltimore need the run game to get their offense going. The Texans have averaged 153 yards per game on the season rushing the football mainly behind running back Arian Foster. Foster eclipsed the 1,200 yard mark this season on the ground and also added 617 yards through the passing game. If you consider rookie QB T.J Yates tendency to be inconsistent, it is important that Houston establishes ball movement on the ground to keep Yates out of too many obvious passing situations.
Yates is capable of making a few throws but is normally more effective in a limited role. Yates has completed just 4 scores compared to 3 picks on the season. While WR Andre Johnson is an ultimate game changer, it has been difficult to get him the ball at times this season. Therefore, Houston's passing game will likely only be effective if they can get things going on the ground first and foremost.
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On the other side of the field, Baltimore is eerily similar in the way their offense operates. Running back Ray Rice is the "do it all" guy much like Arian Foster is for Houston's offense. Rice racked up over 2,000 all-purpose yards this year with 1,364 on the ground and an additional 704 receiving yards through the air. Rice is the guy Houston's defense must keep track of at all times and limit his big play potential to be successful.
QB Joe Flacco had a huge game earlier this year against the Texans by passing for 305 yards which was his 2nd highest total on the year. Flacco is capable of such performances when he can get adequate time to throw the football. Baltimore was able to provide such time in the prior meeting by calling play-action passes after establishing a solid run game. Therefore much like the key for Houston, Baltimore will also desperately need to run the football to be as successful as they were against the Texans earlier this year.
Houston's defense did an excellent job of getting pressure on the Bengals QB Andy Dalton last week to force 3 turnovers which had a huge impact in the game. It will be telling to see if Houston's defense can get to Flacco this Sunday and possibly force a few of those needed turnovers. Flacco has had a tendency to become erratic under pressure so Houston should benefit greatly if they can get that type of pressure again on Sunday. If Houston's defense fails to get that type of pressure up front, we could see another repeat like the 29-14 Ravens victory earlier this year.
Betting Trends
Baltimore is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games, but they are also 5-0 SU in their last 5 games at home. The total has gone 'under' in 4 of the last 6 games for the Ravens.
Houston is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against Baltimore and 0-5 SU against Baltimore in those games. However, the Texans are 4-1 SU in their last 5 road games this year.
Jay's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I think this will be a much tighter football game this time around barring any major turnovers. Houston showed last week why their defense was ranked number 1 for most of the year and if they get a similar performance this week then they will have a shot at the win outright. Take Houston +8.5.
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