Note: If you're looking for the 2012 Week 17 matchup between these teams, please go here: Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts Pick.
Houston Texans (10-4 SU, 9-4-1 ATS) at Indianapolis Colts (1-13 SU, 5-9 ATS)
Thursday December 22nd, 2011. 8:20PM EST, NFL Football Week 16
Lucas Oil Stadium Indianapolis, I.N.
By Jay Horne, NFL Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Hou -6.5/IND +6.5
Over/Under Total: 40.5
Bet the Hou/Indy game using your credit card at an online sportsbook where it WILL work for deposits: BetOnline.
In week 15 of the NFL, there were some huge surprises and streaks that were snapped rather suddenly. The Houston Texans had a 7 game winning streak snapped when they were blasted 28-13 by a Carolina Panthers team that was previously just 4-9 SU. Another surprise occurred inside Lucas Oil Stadium when the winless Indianapolis Colts, losers of 13 straight, beat the Tennessee Titans decisively 27-13 to score their first win on the season. Now the Colts will try to build off their first taste of success when they host the Houston Texans for a primetime Thursday Night affair on the NFL Network.
Houston on the other hand will try to shake off a lackluster performance from the Carolina game and get back to their winning ways. The Texans still have a lot to play for as home field advantage in the playoffs is still in their grasp. Last week, the Texans number 1 defense was gashed for over 160 yards on the ground by that Panthers rushing attack. Not to mention the offense added to their troubles by turning the ball over on 3 different occasions. This week the Texans look for a much better overall performance as they look to rebound.
Houston's defense has been the key to their breakout success this year and it is rare to see a team run the ball against them like Carolina did a week ago. The Colts on the other hand have been ineffective for the majority of the year rushing the football averaging just 101 yards (23rd in NFL) per game. However, Indianapolis running back Donald Brown is coming off his biggest performance of the season last week against the Titans and perhaps has a little momentum on his side to battle the Texans. Last week, Brown carried the ball 16 times for a season high 161 yards and 1 score. Considering the constant troubles the Colts have had behind center this year. I wouldn't be surprised to see them keep the ball on the ground often again in hopes for another big performance by Brown.
If the Colts cannot get the ground game moving, they will let QB Dan Orlovsky attempt to target wide outs Pierre Garcon and Reggie Wayne down the field. Orlovsky has not put up tons of yards in the passing game since taking over the starting role but he has not been nearly as bad as Curtis Painter either. On the season, Orlovsky has completed 63% passing for 693 yards with 4 scores and 2 picks. The less the Colts have to use Orlovsky's arm will possibly better their chances but he is still a guy that can complete some of the short high percentage throws to spread the ball around.
BET THE COLTS AS A +26.5 UNDERDOG BY PLACING THEM INTO A 20 POINT FOOTBALL TEASER AT 5DIMES
The Colts will still ultimately need a solid defensive effort because they simply do not have the firepower to get into an offensive shootout. Still, the Texans have not been the offensive team they were earlier in the year before QB Matt Schaub was lost for the season. In the last 3 weeks, the Texans have averaged just 14 points per game and they have also given up 7 turnovers during that stretch. Rookie QB T.J Yates has not been able to hit the big passes down the field. Last week, Yates completed 19 of 30 passing for 212 yards without any touchdowns and 2 picks. As mentioned earlier, those turnovers are something that has plagued the team over the last several weeks and that will make a huge difference down the stretch if they continue.
Even with the passing troubles, the Texans have the best 1-2 punch in the entire NFL in the backfield in both Arian Foster and Ben Tate. Foster has been one of the top backs in the league the last few years and despite missing time earlier this year has already eclipsed the 1,000 yard plateau. Tate has been a pleasant surprise this season in the backup role and has added 846 yards with 3 touchdowns on the year. If Tate can have a few more solid outings, the Texans could have two different 1,000 yard rushers for just the 7th time in league history.
Jay's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: A rookie QB on the road, a team that's having turnover problems and having issues scoring the ball a 6 point favorite on the road? As tough as it is to say, the Colts are actually a value play here. I expect a tight game with the final score margin being 3 points. Which team wins is anyone's guess, but I do believe the Colts are a good play here.
Preseason NFL Picks - There's a myth that pre-season NFL betting is a crapshoot. Many times a coach will divulge his gameplan (and stick with it). A handicappers dream!
Editor's Picks - Each week our in house pro's tackle the week's card and make predictions on the week's games ATS! Best bets, top plays, premium selections, etc. FREE!
Expert NFL Picks - Free premium plays from the "real" expert football handicappers from around the web. Don't fall for second rate picks from ESPN, the NFL Network, Hank Goldberg or the screaming touts on TV.
Underdog of the Week Pick - We forecast the loudest barking dog of the week. Expect a 60% winning percentage with these plays.
Favorite of the Week Play - We examine "the chalk" and determine the safest bet in which who you should lay the points with. Forecasting winning favorites long term isn't easy, but we've had some pretty good luck with it over the years.
Line Movement Plays - We report all the major line moves from the gridiron and forecast whether it's public money or sharp action causing the move. Who will cover the spread this week? Our line move plays!
NFL Consensus Picks - See what the general public is betting on. We use this info to fade the public to the tune of big profits over the course of the season.
Bookies Picks - (Coming Soon!) Each week, we'll post which side the bookies are on. Please note: These are not OUR picks. We're simply reporting the teams the bookies need to cover the spread in order for them to win. Games receiving equal action on both sides will not be factored into these records.
Office Pool Picks - (Coming Soon!) You asked for it and you got it! Each week, we'll post our predictions to win each game straight up so that you can RULE your office pool!
NFL Trends - Don't ever let anybody tell you that the trend is your friend. These picks make great fades which is exactly what we do with them.
Monday Night Football Picks - The ultimate bailout play. Our MNF picks are golden and have hit 62% or better 3 out of the past 4 years. (Last season was a disaster!) Did we mention that their FREE?
Superbowl Predictions - Our take before the season on who we think will win Superbowl XLVIII. We'll update with a final pick based on the actual remaining teams a week prior to the big game at MetLife Stadium on February 2nd, 2014.
Super Bowl Picks - Everybody here in the Predictem office takes their best preseason shot at predicting the winner Superbowl 49. Pride is on the line here! Oh, and LOOT too!
5Dimes - Bet your NFL football picks at -105 odds every day of the week! 15 team parlays! 20 point teasers! Pleasers and huge point buying opportunities as well!
Bovada - Tired of deposit hassles? Bet on football using your credit card at a sportsbook where your Visa CAN and WILL work for deposits! Offers a 50% sign-up bonus up to $250 FREE!
Sportsbook - Deposit $100, make a $100 bet and get a $100 bet FREE! Your credit card WILL work here!
GTBets - You get to select 2 NFL teams and get a FREE half point every time you bet them! Offers a generous 100% bonus on deposits of $100 to $500! One of the best at accepting credit cards for deposits!
Football Bets - We explain all the different types of wagers that you can place on an NFL game and give advice on which ones good and which are sucker bets. We also explore the value of betting at reduce odds.
Super Bowl Betting - We explain all the different types of wagers you can making including point spread bets, totals, moneylines and prop bets. No need to go to Vegas! You can bet the big game online!
Weekly Fantasy Football - If you drafted a crappy team or the injury bug has bit you and wrecked your season, we've got something really cool to turn you on to that will change the way you play fantasy sports forever!
Famous Football Quotes - From the inspirational to the greatest touchdown calls of all time. We've got them!
Pro Football Hall of Fame - A full list of NFL players who have been inducted into the NFL HOF.
The Spread - Offers free NFL football predictions, matchups, stats including both offensive and defensive and more!
Fantasy Football Sites - Get recommendations on where to find weekly updated player news, depth charts and legit websites that offer the best stat and record tracking for your fantasy football league.