Indianapolis Colts (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) vs. Arizona Cardinals (1-1 SU,
1-1 ATS), 8:20 p.m. EST, Sunday, September 27, 2009, University of
Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, Ariz. TV: NBC
by Badger of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Colts +2/Cardinals -2
Over/Under: 48
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The football will be flying all over the field on NBC this Sunday Night when the network hosts an exciting AFC-vs.-NFC duel of former MVP quarterbacks featuring the Indianapolis Colts and Peyton Manning against the Arizona Cardinals and veteran gunslinger Kurt Warner.
Manning and the Colts only had three offensive possessions in the second half, but they were enough to help the Colts swipe a victory from the Miami Dolphins on the road last Monday, 27-23. Manning hit Dallas Clark on an 80-yard strike to open the game, then made a perfect audible at the line of scrimmage on the final play (48-yard TD to Pierre Garcon) to prove to the world-wide viewing audience he is still an MVP-type player in the NFL and move the Colts to 2-0 this season.
Warner set a new NFL record for completion percentage last week when he went 24-for-26 for 243 yards and two touchdowns in the Cards 31-17 win over Jacksonville. But more importantly, Warner’s play last Sunday versus the Jags showed the rest of the NFL world that he’s not done, the Cards are still a top team in the NFC and yes, they can go on the road East of the Mississippi and win.
The point spread in this game opened with Arizona as slim 1-point favorites, but the early action has moved the number up at most sportsbooks all the way up to the Cards minus 2.5-points at a few of the online sportsbooks.
The over/under total opened at 48 and has held firm for the most part, although there are a few 47.5s listed if you look hard enough and want the hook difference.
Offensively this game is noteworthy because of the big name quarterbacks playing in it, but it will more than likely be won by the team that best supports its QB with a running game.
Indy has really struggled running the ball consistently the first few weeks, as their 66 yards per game average indicates (29th in NFL). But the Cardinals running game has been nearly as lopsided (79 ypg – 25th), as both teams rely heavily on the passing attack to move the chains.
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But you can expect the Cards to have an extra emphasis on running plays and balance in the game plan this week because the Colts defense is 30th in the league in rushing yards allowed at 176.5 per in the first two weeks. Considering the Indy defense is ranked No. 1 versus the pass (139 ypg allowed), what would you do?
The Cardinals defense, currently 4th against the run (56.5 ypg) and 6th overall (287.5 ypg), will be tested by Manning as he spreads the field and picks away at the holes in the scheme. The one difference is that Arizona has shown a strong pass rush so far, notching four in each of their first two games.
It is rare indeed that these two meet on the gridiron, having met just four times since the 1990 season. Indy has owned the small series, winning three straight including a 17-13 snoozer on New Year’s Day 2006 the last time they met.
Let it be noted though, that the lone Cards victory in the series came in the only game played in Arizona (a 20-17 win in 1990), and the Cards own a better against the spread record (3-1 ATS) in the series too.
All four games have come in under the total, but before you go betting that trend remember that the last time they met was in a meaningless week 17 game for Indy. The games before that were from 1990 to 1996, back before Peyton Manning in Indy and back when the Cardinals hardly won period.
Badger’s Pick: Even though they lost Miami still provided the league with the blueprint on how to beat Manning and the Colts, keep them off the field. The problem is the Cards are running challenged, and might not be able to take advantage of the Colts weakness. Either way, its dueling QB’s in the Dessert. Take the over of 47.5.
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